Scotland v South Africa: Prediction, Tips and Odds

After opening the autumn with a 57-17 win over an underpowered Fiji, things get serious for Scotland when South Africa visit Murrayfield on Sunday.

There were caveats to the win over the Fijians, with several of the islanders' stars unavailable due to the match falling outside of the international window. 

The same was true for the Scots, who have been able to recall backs Ben White, Finn Russell and Blair Kinghorn, although they will be without last weekend's four-try hero Darcy Graham due to concussion.

Even if Graham had been fit, Kinghorn's selection on the wing and Tom Jordan making his first start at full-back suggests Townsend was, understandably, always likely to favour size against the Boks, who have won the pair's last eight meetings.

The most recent of those was a scrappy 18-3 triumph at last year's World Cup and, after the scoreline arguably flattered his team that day, Rassie Erasmus is undoubtedly respecting Scotland by selecting seven forwards among his eight replacements.

Townsend himself has opted for six big men on the bench, but while his side has the capability to push the Boks if they can avoid getting caught in a quagmire by moving the ball with pace, South Africa's greater physicality could tell in the closing stages.

Scotland v South Africa betting tips and predictions

Scotland +8 - 1/1

Scotland look stronger than in their win over Fiji and with Russell pulling the strings inside a back-line featuring captain Sione Tuipulotu, centre partner Huw Jones and wings Kinghorn and Duhan van der Merwe, they have a real chance to move the world champions around the Murrayfield turf.

Despite mixed results, their talented back-line means there remains a real optimism around Scottish rugby, while they have also found some decent forwards able to set a platform for those behind to shine.

Zipping the ball about will be their best way of avoiding South Africa's trademark big hits, but the tourists have mentioned how hard they have found facing Scotland at the World Cup and gone for uber-physicality by picking seven forwards on the bench.

With Handre Pollard also favoured at fly-half, this looks like a matchday 23 selected to win the game in grinding fashion and being able to replace almost their entire pack in the second half could be the difference.

With the Springboks set to keep things tight and play the percentages, Scotland can keep in touch but may eventually succumb to another plucky defeat.

Malcolm Marx anytime tryscorer - 13/8

Malcolm Marx finds himself in a conundrum. Almost certainly the best hooker in the world, his explosiveness means Erasmus prefers to use him off the bench, with Bongi Mbonambi usually given the start.

Mbonambi is another class act and accepts his role by running and tackling himself to a standstill before making way, usually with half an hour to go.

Marx is more mobile than his colleague and better when close to the opposition's line, which has helped him score 21 tries for his country, a record for a forward.

They include four off the bench in this summer's successful Rugby Championship campaign and, with South Africa opting for a 7-1 split on the bench, the 30-year-old could get chances with his team expected to use their freshness to make late surges through the forwards.

Duhan van der Merwe anytime tryscorer - 6/4

Scotland's best chance of success could centre on moving the ball and avoiding contact, but one player who could potentially match the Boks physically is wing Van der Merwe and there's a good reason why.

The giant winger was born in the Western Cape and began his career with the Blue Bulls before heading north, first for France and Montpellier and then in 2017, Edinburgh.

An ill-fated spell with Worcester ended with him returning north of the border and after representing his country of birth in the age-grades, he has donned the dark blue jersey since becoming eligible through residency in 2020.

Van der Merwe's score against Fiji was his 29th for the Scots and re-established the British & Irish Lion as his country's record try scorer after Graham had moved level with his four tries on the night.

The 29-year-old has repeatedly been linked with a move back to South Africa and has extra motivation to go over against the Boks. 

Read more rugby union tips and predictions on site

Scotland v South Africa odds

Scotland - 11/4
Tie - 25/1
South Africa - 2/7

View the full market and more odds for Scotland v South Africa on site

This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.