Eddie Jones wants Japan to "cause some havoc" at Twickenham on Saturday, when they face an England side he believes will be "distracted" ahead of next weekend's match with New Zealand.
The Brave Blossoms boss knows how the supporters can turn on the home team after spending six years as Red Rose coach, and wants to "get the crowd booing" as "then the sky starts to come in" on the hosts.
Jones has no issues with playing the pantomime villain and will know his team are massive underdogs after last Saturday's 28-21 loss to Wales.
With the All Blacks in mind, home boss Steve Borthwick, who worked under Jones with both Japan and England, was always going to make changes in this match.
He is already without Immanuel Feyi-Waboso and Tom Curry, both of whom have been ruled out of the remainder of the Nations Championship.
However, England showed real attacking intent in last Sunday's 45-22 win over Australia, and for all Jones' talk in the media, his side are unlikely to trouble the hosts.
England v Japan Tips Summary
Best Bet - Alternative Handicap 2-Way - England - 33.5 @ 1/1
Alternative Bet - Alex Coles to score a try @ 2/1
Bet Builder - Henry Pollock to score a try, Archie McParland to score a try & Naoto Saito to score a try @ 14/1
England v Japan Prediction
Best Bet: Alternative Handicap 2-Way - England - 33.5 @ 1/1
Technically excellent, yes, and with a wily coach who will come with a tactical surprise…but Borthwick's plan is to blow Japan off the field with a big, yet mobile performance from the forwards before focusing on New Zealand.
The backs also look sharp, with Will Joseph, who made his only previous England appearance under Jones in 2022, included in one of five changes, with George Ford also starting.
Ford will look to set England on the way to their fourth straight win before Marcus Smith comes on to finish the job and the Red Rose have won all six previous meetings against Japan.
The Blossoms were brave but lost 28-21 to Wales last Saturday in Cardiff, and Jones is still building a side that can challenge at the 2027 Rugby World Cup.
It is hard to look past the last two meetings in 2024, which England won by an aggregate of 111-31.
The 31.5-point handicap mark is achievable, so look beyond that tally towards the punter's side of evens and take England to win by 34 or more points.
Alternative Bet: Alex Coles to score a try @ 2/1
Borthwick is clearly convinced that a hybrid-lock-cum-flanker is the way to go in the number six shirt and with Ollie Chessum out, Alex Coles shifts from the second row to the side of the scrum.
It is a role he has played before and displaying his versatility will only aid his chances of playing at next year's World Cup.
Among Chessum's strengths is his ability to play in the wide channels, from where he scored England's second try against the Wallabies following a slick backline move.
Coles' two international tries have both come in 2026 and with him likely to be given more license to play in space, he becomes a true try candidate.
England vs Japan Bet Builder Tip
Henry Pollock to score a try
Archie McParland to score a try
Naoto Saito to score a try
Pays 14/1
Henry Pollock has been handed only his second England start and is backed to cross again. Introduced at the break, he scored two tries from the wing against Australia, but will be more comfortable wearing the number eight shirt on Saturday.
Pollock's bombastic style may still suit the team better in an impact role but everyone wants to start. All eight of his international scores have come from the bench, but he will be desperate to take his chance and another international try is expected.
Northampton team-mate Archie McParland will make his debut off the bench, and fans will look to him to shine.
The scrum-half is a demon around the edges and, with starter Jack van Poortvliet able to move Japan around the field, his understudy could exploit the space left by a tired visiting pack.
For Japan, Toulouse scrum-half Naoto Saito scored a try at Twickenham in both 2022 and 2024.
He missed out on a score in Wales, but replacement Kenta Fukuda went over, suggesting they're trying to create space for their number nines to exploit.
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Key Match Stats
England have won all of their previous six matches with Japan
The pair met twice in 2024, with England winning by a combined score of 111-31
The team that scored the opening try has won all four of England's Nations Championship matches
Alex Coles' two international tries have both come in 2026
England's Henry Pollock has scored, including five in the Nations Championship
Japan's Naoto Saito has scored tries in the last two Twickenham meetings
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
