Australia, New Zealand and Papua New Guinea are joint hosts for the Rugby League World Cup, which takes place over the next four weeks, culminating in the final at Brisbane Broncos' Suncorp Stadium on November 15th and Alex Hilton gives his best bets for the competition.
The Kangaroos begin the defence of their title with a crucial clash against New Zealand at the Sydney Football Stadium on Thursday in a repeat of their semi-final from four years ago which Australia won 16-14 at Elland Road in Leeds.
Australia went on to hammer surprise side Samoa 30-10 in the final and it would be an epic shock if the reigning champions failed to reach the final for a 16th time in 17 tournaments.
However, the betting suggests things may not go all Australia's own way in the next month and there are plenty of value bets to be had in a competitive-looking extravaganza.
Contents Table
Rugby League World Cup Tips and Predictions
Outright Prediction: New Zealand (9/4)
Top Tryscorer Tip: Ronaldo Mulitalo (10/1)
Alternative Tip: England to be eliminated in the group stage (7/5)
Rugby League World Cup Favourites
Australia have won 12 of the 16 Rugby League World Cups and they are warm 8/11 favourites to extend their record to 13 on home soil in the next month.
The Kangaroos face a ferocious opening fixture against fellow hosts New Zealand, who are 9/4 shots to end the dominance of their bitter rivals.
Samoa reached the final four years ago and are 10/1 to go one better this time around, while England are rated at 16/1 to break their duck by winning the World Cup.
Top Tryscorer Favourites
Josh Addo-Carr topped the tryscoring charts four years ago for Australia and three of his compatriots lead the way in the betting for this year's tournament with Tom Trbojevic the 7/1 favourite ahead of team-mate Jack Bostock at 8/1.
Latrell Mitchell is third favourite at 10/1, the same price as New Zealand wingers Jamayne Isaako and Ronaldo Mulitalo.
Kangaroos superstar Reece Walsh is rated as a 12/1 chance, but England's Dom Young is only 16th in the betting at 25/1.
Data-Led Rugby League World Cup Predictions & Analytics
Here's what the data tells us about the leading contenders:
Australia have won 12 of the 16 Rugby League World Cups and 1954 was the only year in which they have failed to reach the final. They open the 2026 tournament against a New Zealand side who they have beaten in 108 of their 146 meetings.
The Kangaroos' only loss in their last 15 outings came against the Kiwis in 2023 when they lost 30-0 in Hamilton, but they bounced back to win 22-10 in Christchurch 11 months later.
The Aussies won all three Ashes Tests with England last autumn, conceding just 18 points across the three matches.
New Zealand won the 2025 Pacific Cup, beating Samoa twice and Tonga on their way to lifting the trophy and they enter the World Cup on a four-match winning streak that also features a comprehensive 54-12 win over Papua New Guinea.
The Kiwis have won the World Cup once in 2008. All but four members of their 23-man squad play for a club that made the NRL playoffs in Australia this year and they conceded just 13 tries across their four matches in last year's Pacific Cup.
Samoa have never won the World Cup but reached the final of the 2021 edition. They were beaten finalists in last year's Pacific Cup despite leading New Zealand 14-6 at half time, but they head for the World Cup having won just one of their last eight matches.
England have also never won the World Cup but were beaten finalists in 2017 when the tournament was last hosted by Australia, New Zealand and Papua New Guinea.
On that occasion they were beaten 6-0 by the Aussies but last year's Ashes series was more comprehensive as they lost all three meetings with the Kangaroos, scoring just 18 points along the way.
England scored 196 points across three group games with Samoa, France and Greece in the 2021 World Cup and hammered Papua New Guinea 46-6 in the quarter-finals before being edged out 27-26 on golden point by Tonga in the semis.
Rugby League World Cup Outright Prediction
Australia and New Zealand are odds-on to reach the World Cup final and it is likely to be one of the two who lift the trophy with the Kangaroos warm 8/11 favourites to win their 13th title ahead of New Zealand, who are rated as 9/4 shots, and preference is for the latter at that juicy price.
The Kiwis were the last side to beat Australia and, although that success came in 2023, New Zealand look to have a squad capable of going all the way this time.
Both sides are housed in the four-team Pool A and it would take something of a major shock for one of the sides not to take the two qualification places.
They get to have a good look at each other in Thursday's tournament opener and from there it will likely be a one-off game against either England, Samoa or Tonga to make the final in Brisbane.
New Zealand comfortably won last year's Pacific Cup featuring Samoa and Tonga, while Australia were easing to an Ashes success in their three-match series with England.
The Kiwis have arguably the best pack in the competition and that can lay the platform for a glorious campaign.
Top Tryscorer Tip
The top tryscorer is likely to come from a team going all the way, so preference is for New Zealand winger Ronald Mulitalo at 10/1.
Mulitalo has scored seven tries in just nine matches for the Kiwis and heads for the World Cup having scored 13 tries in 17 NRL matches for Cronulla Sharks in 2026.
Alternative Tip
England are housed in Pool B at the World Cup, but the format of the tournament means they will play Tonga, France and Papua New Guinea in their three group matches, so backing them to fail to reach the semi-finals could pay off.
Only two teams from six in the combined Pool B and C go through and England's opening fixture against Tonga looks like a tough one to call.
Lose that and they are immediately under pressure, while their final fixture against co-hosts Papua New Guinea is certainly no gimme should it be a winner-takes-all contest.
Who Lifts the Rugby League World Cup?
Although Tonga rate as decent outsiders, the winner is likely to come from Australia or New Zealand, with preference for the latter on this occasion.
Taking on the Aussies is a risky approach, but the Kiwis look the best-equipped to stop the Kangaroos, who will need to find a way to cope without the world's best player - Nathan Cleary - who is ruled out of this tournament through injury.
Read more rugby league betting tips and predictions on site.
This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
