Tonga will bid to reach their first-ever Rugby League World Cup final when they take on New Zealand at the McDonald Jones Stadium on Saturday.
New Zealand booked their spot in the final four after finishing second in Pool A behind Australia.
The Kiwis lost to their arch-rivals in their opening game, but then hammered the Cook Islands and Fiji to secure their spot in the semi-finals.
Tonga topped the combined Pool B and C table with three wins from three and they will believe they can cause an upset in Newcastle.
New Zealand v Tonga Tips Summary
Best Bet - Tonga + 8.5 @ 1.91
Alternative Bet - To win both halves - Neither team @ 1.83
Bet Builder - New Zealand to win, Casey McLean to score a try, Dallin Watene-Zelezniak to score a try @ 7.00
New Zealand v Tonga Prediction
Best Bet: Tonga + 8.5 @ 1.91
Tonga are one win away from their first-ever World Cup final and it would not be a massive shock to see them book their spot. They play with aggression and speed in the forwards and they are tough and resolute in defence.
Their power in the pack is a huge asset and it allows them to stay in games. Addin Fonua-Blake, Jason Taumalolo, Haumole Olakau'atu, Siua Wong and Tyson Frizell have what it takes to lead the Tongan charge and they have proven they can stay focused in defence.
In the past, Tonga were all action and their no-nonsense players would eventually tire and burn out, but the new-look Tonga conceded just 12 points to England and 18 against Samoa.
Both teams are evenly matched in multiple areas and on neutral ground, it is hard to see Tonga being outclassed.
Alternative Bet: To win both halves - Neither team @ 1.83
The Rugby League World Cup has its critics and many teams were not competitive in the first round.
However, in the semi-finals, that should all change and both teams are capable of causing each other problems. Australia got the better of New Zealand in Game 1, with the Kiwis losing 24-22, and Tonga are capable of starting strongly.
New Zealand beat Tonga 40-14 in November 2025, so there's every chance the Kiwis can peg them back at times, too.
Overall, there's so much at stake and so many individual battles to savour. Arguments could be made for and against each team, so it is tough to see one side dominating from the outset.
New Zealand v Tonga Bet Builder Tip
New Zealand to win
Casey McLean to score a try
Dallin Watene-Zelezniak to score a try
Pays 7.00
Games of this magnitude are often decided by the smallest of margins and New Zealand certainly have the better 'big-game experience' ahead of this final-four matchup.
Crucially, Tonga centre Robert Toia is ruled out with a knee injury and that is a huge blow. Both teams are going to have to hang in at times and this game could go either way.
However, Australia remain the best team in the world and New Zealand only lost to them by two points. While Tonga were impressive in wins over Samoa and England, those sides are not on the same level as New Zealand.
New Zealand have defended well across the tournament and while Tonga should push them all the way, they have enough resources off the bench to reach the final.
Both teams have firepower out wide and both will lean on their star players to do the business. New Zealand centre Casey McLean has scored seven tries in three games at the World Cup and he is arguably the best centre in the world right now.
Former New Zealand international Dallin Watene-Zelezniak has yet to score at the World Cup, but he should be one of Tonga's main targets from high kicks and he scored 20 tries in the NRL for the New Zealand Warriors last season, so he is more than capable of getting on the scoresheet.
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Key Match Stats
New Zealand have won two of their three games at the 2026 Rugby League World Cup
Tonga have won all three of their games at the tournament
Tonga conceded 18 points or fewer in each of their pool matches
New Zealand have scored 78 points or more in two of their three matches
The Kiwis beat Tonga 40-14 in their last meeting in November 2025
Casey McLean has scored seven tries in three games at the World Cup for New Zealand
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
