Australia will hope to reach their 16th Rugby League World Cup final when they entertain Samoa at the Sydney Football Stadium on Sunday.
The hosts have once again breezed their way into the semi-finals after three wins in Pool A against New Zealand, Fiji and the Cook Islands.
Samoa finished second in Pool B despite losing 20-18 to Tonga last weekend, but convincing wins over France and Papua New Guinea proved enough to get them into the final four.
Australia have won all four of their games against Samoa and are the favourites to reach the final, but Samoa's recent displays suggest they can make Sunday's showdown a real battle.
Australia v Samoa Tips Summary
Best Bet - Australia to win by 1-12 points @ 2.87
Alternative Bet - Over 40.5 Points @ 1.72
Bet Builder - Ethan Strange to score a try, Brian To'o to score a try @ 10.50
Australia v Samoa Prediction
Best Bet: Australia to win by 1-12 points @ 2.87
Samoa flexed their muscles in their opening two games of the World Cup and racked up some impressive numbers in attack.
However, their momentum was brought to a halt when they faced Tonga last weekend and it is hard to back them in a must-win game, when they have no experience of getting over the line.
They lost 30-10 to Australia in the World Cup final in 2022 and while this week's game may not be as one-sided, Australia can still come out on top.
Not only do they have home advantage, but they have the benefit of continuity as they have made no changes to their starting 13.
Samoa half-back Chanel Harris-Tavita has dropped out through injury and his absence in the engine room will be hard felt.
Samoa certainly have the size advantage in the pack and their forwards will lay a platform for them to succeed and it is how they will keep this game close.
However, while the game may be close in the second half, Australia's options off the bench are far superior.
Ethan Strange, Cameron Murray, James Tedesco, and Latrell Mitchell will add some much-needed speed out wide and once Samoa tire, Australia should pick them off.
Alternative Bet: Over 40.5 Points @ 1.72
All five meetings between these two teams have contained at least 40 points and the form of both sides suggests another blockbuster showdown.
Australia conceded 22 points to Fiji and showed signs of weakness that Samoa will look to exploit.
Samoa are an explosive and destructive unit that have every chance of claiming the first-half lead. If they do take control, it will only aid the chance of this game containing at least 41 points, as Australia are capable of dragging teams into a fight and picking them off from all areas of the pitch.
Australia v Samoa Bet Builder Tip
Ethan Strange to score a try
Brian To'o to score a try
Pays 10.50
Strange added a new dimension to the Australia attack last week and is not afraid of taking on the defensive line. He is happy to run at the forwards and draw the opposition out of position, which only helps his chances of spotting gaps to score once he comes off the bench.
Samoa's Brian To'o is one of the best wingers in the NRL, and he has proved he can compete against this Australian team for years.
Samoa's kicking game brings him into play as a potential target out wide and if the match breaks up and Samoa need to try something out of the ordinary, To'o is capable of creating magic on his own.
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Key Match Stats
Australia have won their last nine matches in all competitions
Australia have conceded 22 points in two games at the World Cup
Samoa have lost all five of their matches against Australia, including the 2022 World Cup final
Samoa have only conceded 30 points across three games
At least 40 points have been scored in all five meetings between the two nations
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
