The best turf horse in the world, Baaeed, tackles the feature Sussex Stakes on day two of the Glorious Goodwood festival. Racing Post tipster Robbie Wilders picks out bets for three of the first four races.
Mugader @ 14/1
Samahram @ 10/1
Order Of Australia w/o Baaeed @ 5/2
Secret State heads the betting for the opening 1m4f handicap (1.50) and it is easy to see why. He was giving weight and a beating to subsequent Group 3 winner Deauville Legend when victorious in the King George V Handicap at Royal Ascot and he retains an entry in the St Leger later in the season. However, this is a competitive field and another horse at the foot of the weights is Classic-entered at Doncaster and that is Mugader for Richard Hannon.
Mugader looked a rapid improver when bolting up from a next-time-out winner over the Leger course and distance last time and could have something in hand off 7lb higher. The drop in trip is a slight concern but he may be progressive enough to overcome that at a price off a mark of 86. The trainer patently has a high opinion of this colt and although the entry seems unrealistic, a big handicap success is attainable.
The Group 3 Oak Tree Stakes (2.25) is wide open with just 4lb separating 10 of the fillies and mares. Heredia would make plenty of appeal had she not turned in a disappointing effort at Sandown last time, but she appears fairly priced.
Instead, it might be worth siding with Samahram each-way. Owners Al Shaqab racing clearly have an affinity with this race and the operation has combined with a French trainer to capture three of the last seven editions.
Samahram makes the journey over for Francis-Henri Graffard and although this Sea The Moon filly isn't bred for 7f, she was all out to hold on over a mile in a decent Listed contest last time and she looks speedy, so I'm not overly concerned by the drop in distance.
Frankie Dettori has been booked to ride and it is easy to imagine her opening price shortening markedly. With just three runs to her name she is the least experienced filly in the field and open to the most improvement.
Comparisons with the great Frankel will gather momentum if Baaeed lands the Group 1 Sussex Stakes (3.35) in style and he is expected to preserve his unbeaten record. The William Haggas-trained four-year-old should be much too good once more but does not represent a bet at the prices.
Instead, there may be some value in the 'without the favourite' market with Order Of Australia. I was really impressed with Order Of Australia when he sauntered clear in the Minstrel Stakes last time from a near-top-class filly in Pearls Galore. That was a career-best performance on Racing Post Ratings and this five-year-old appears to be entering his prime now.
Last season's winner Alcohol Free has shown form after beating Order Of Australia in this last season, but that was on soft ground and this surface should suit my selection more providing not too much of the forecast rain arrives. I think Alcohol Free may have been overrated for landing the July Cup last time as the sprinting division looks weak this year and her previous form is patchy.