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Premier League relegation battle: Will 40 points be the magic number?

We are now 13/8 that the team finishing in 18th position in the top-flight notches 40 points or more as the Premier League relegation battle intensifies.

You’ll often hear the ‘magical 40-point’ mark referenced by Premier League managers, and whilst that tally is usually enough to secure top-flight survival it’s by no means a guarantee – as West Ham United supporters will be well aware of!

Despite Southampton (1/3) and Bournemouth (1/5) both being odds-on to be plying their trade in the Championship in 2022/23, the battle to avoid that potential third relegation spot is really starting to hot up.

Sean Dyche appears to have breathed fresh life into Everton, who are now 4/7 to survive the drop, after they notched a huge victory over league-leaders Arsenal on his Goodison Park debut last weekend, whilst fellow strugglers West Ham United and Leeds United have both enjoyed profitable outings over the last seven days.

Wolverhampton Wanderers, Leicester City and Nottingham Forest have also edged themselves further away from the drop zone thanks to an upturn in fortunes too, although Crystal Palace’s 10/1 relegation odds may continue to tumble if Patrick Vieira is unable to transform their fortunes relatively sharpish.

Whilst the current bottom six sides have all averaged less than a point per game, it’s not beyond the realms of possibility that 40-points will be needed to guarantee another crack at the big time next season.

bet365’s Steve Freeth said: “We had this market priced at 11/4 back in October and it’s shortened to 13/8 now, and while there is no doubt that Bournemouth and Southampton look to be bang in trouble, the final spot could become nail-biting with some big clubs trying to stay in the Premier League.

“Everton got off to an absolute flyer under Dyche against an Arsenal side who had only been beaten once up until then, West Ham look to have turned a corner and the same could be said for Wolves and Forest as well.“

 To Be Relegated:To Stay Up:
Crystal Palace10/11/20
Nottingham Forest11/41/4
Leicester City9/21/7
Leeds United9/41/3
West Ham United11/21/9

"Leeds gained a big point at Old Trafford and could easily get a new manager bounce as we await an appointment which might leave Crystal Palace fans anxiously looking over their shoulders despite sitting in 12th place with 24 points – six above the bottom three.

“Wolves survived on the final day of 2010/11 with 40 points and let’s not forget that West Ham actually got relegated with 42 points in 2003 – I wouldn’t totally write off something similar this time around!”

Those of a certain vintage will have witnessed some remarkable Premier League great escapes over the past couple of Decades…

Remember West Bromwich Albion's miraculous recovery in 2005, Leicester City’s renaissance under Nigel Pearson in 2015 – just a year before their title-winning heroics – and how about the transformation in fortunes up in the North East at Newcastle United just last season, with the Geordies marooned to the foot of the table, winless in their opening 15 matches.

And with that in mind, we could yet be set for more drama towards the foot of the table between now and the end of the season as clubs up and down the country throw everything at preserving their top-flight status.

We are currently 13/8 that the team who finishes the campaign in 18th spot accumulates 40 points or more, and 4/9 that their final tally falls below that number.

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