Jonny Clayton got points on the Premier League board last week and Racing Post darts tipster Steve Davies reckons the Welshman is worth trusting to kick on and take the victory on Night 4 in Dublin.
After two blanks in the first two weeks, the Ferret beat Chris Dobey in round one in Glasgow before succumbing in a semi-final thriller to Michael Smith, who went on to claim the five points and £10,000 nightly winner's cheque.
|What||Premier League Night 4|
|When||19:00, Thursday 23rd February|
|How to watch||Sky Sports|
|Odds||M van Gerwen 2/1, M Smith 4/1, G Price 9/2, P Wright 6/1, J Clayton 15/2, N Aspinall 11/1, D van den Bergh 14/1|
Three weeks gone, three different winners and that should surprise few darts punters given the consistent quality of the eight players involved.
Michael van Gerwen is again the favourite on Night 4 in Dublin, but having failed to win yet he's an easy arrowsmith to swerve at 2/1.
World champion Smith is the type of player who thrives on confidence and has a knack of following up wins with more wins – and that makes him a danger after delivering in Glasgow.
Indeed, at 4/1 he's probably better value than the Green Machine. They can all win but Clayton gets my vote at 15/2 because he's throwing very well and is just a favourable break or two away from going in.
Last week he averaged over 102 in a 6-1 drubbing of Chris Dobey before a 99.14 wasn't quite enough against Bully Boy. His finishing had been holding him back but last week he upped his percentage to over 45.
He subsequently had another high-scoring weekend in Barnsley on the Pro Tour producing five ton-plus averages over eight matches.
After four rounds of Players Championship action he heads the averages. There is nothing wrong with his game.
2023 Premier League Darts: Night 4 Schedule, Table, Results, Prize Money & TV listings
Peter Wright can beat Michael Smith. He has many times down the years. Right now, however, everything points to Bully Boy winning when he takes on Snakebite in the opening match of the night at the 3Arena.
Smith is 4/6 and that's not easy to argue against given he triumphed in Glasgow last Thursday when the Scot flopped for a third week in a row.
He's currently the only player without a point on the board and continues to fiddle away with equipment to try to find the missing link. Wright will never be far away – his throw is too majestic for him to fall off a cliff – but at the moment he's susceptible, with Smith worth a punt on the handicap -1.5 at 11/10.
It's been an up-and-down competition for Gerwyn Price this far with two fairly ordinary first-round exits sandwiching victory in Cardiff.
The Iceman was the first to admit that even when he won in Wales it was the partisan crowd which had made the difference because he wasn't at his best that night either.
He knows he's not quite there with his game and also knows, like Wright, it won't take much to be back on the bike.
But for now he's plenty short enough against Dimitri van den Bergh, who beat Wright and Nathan Aspinall – averaging over 105 – before losing to Smith. The Belgian looks the value at 6/4.
The bottom half of the draw pits Clayton against Aspinall with the winner taking on Michael van Gerwen or Chris Dobey, who clash in a repeat of the Night 1 final which the Englishman won 6-5.
Since then Dobey has suffered two first-round losses though that doesn't mean he should be written off. He lost 6-5 to Clayton last week with a 101 average, and that included missing nine out of his 10 shots at double.
That tells you his scoring is alright and since there shouldn't be any scrappy legs against Van Gerwen given the Dutchman's general excellence currently, that Hollywood's average should soar past 94.5 at 4/5.
Dobey is also 13/10 to hit most 180s, and that also appeals. I know the sample size is small but on the Pro Tour MvG averages a maximum every five legs at the moment, Dobey one every 3.1.
Having pinned our colours to Clayton's mast we're confident the Welshman can land odds of 8/11 against Nathan Aspinall though there are better value match bets to be had.