Premier League: Almost half of bet365 customers backing Manchester City for record title

The traders at bet365 have shared the most popular customer selections ahead of the 2023/24 Premier League season.

As of August 4th, football bettors have 8/11 favourites Manchester City as the team to beat for the 2023/24 season. 

The treble winners are hunting down an unprecedented fourth straight Premier League title and have appeared on almost half of all bet365 outright bet slips.

Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal are expected to be the nearest challengers once again.

Unsurprisingly, Erling Haaland has dominated the betting in the Top Goalscorer betting market, while Wolves, Luton and Sheffield United are the teams tipped for relegation by bet365 customers. 

Ahead of the season, new and eligible bet365 customers can also get a 25% winnings boost on the Premier League To Win Outright market.

Winnings Boost Terms and Conditions 

Premier League Outright - Popular Selections
 

Team	Percentage of bets placed
Man City	48.9%
Arsenal	16.9%
Liverpool	11.7%
Man Utd	7.8%
Chelsea	3.6%
Newcastle	3.2%
Tottenham	1.8%
Aston Villa	1.4%

Premier League Top Goalscorer - Popular Selections
 

Player	Percentage of bets placed
Erling Haaland	64.3
Darwin Nunez	5.8
Harry Kane	5.4
Mohamed Salah	5.2
Alexander Isak	2.8
Marcus Rashford	2.4
Christopher Nkunku	1.8
Richarlison	1.4

Premier League Relegation - Popular Selections
 

Team	Percentage of bets placed
Wolves	19.2
Luton	18.0
Sheff Utd	17.6
Bournemouth	11.8
Nottm Forest	6.9
Everton	6.8
West Ham	5.5
Crystal Palace	2.9

bet365 spokesperson Steve Freeth said: “Our customers got it spot on last season with Manchester City winning the Premier League and Erling Haaland finishing as Top Goalscorer and we’ve seen a huge spike of interest in the pair producing more of the same this campaign.

“The incoming Gary O’Neil worked wonders in guiding relegation favourites Bournemouth to safety and while Wolves fans will want a repeat of that at the very least this season, their hordes of relegation backers will be hoping it was just a one off.”

2022/23 Popular selections

Betting from 23/05/2022 to 04/08/2022

After back-to-back championship winning seasons and four Premier League titles in five years, Manchester City were finally favoured by bet365 customers going into the 2022/23 season. The odds-on favourites would not only go on to win the Premier League once again, but achieve a historic treble by adding the FA Cup and the much coveted Champions League to their trophy haul.

The signing of Erling Haaland would give City an explosive added dimension, with many pundits exclaiming that the Norwegian powerhouse was the missing piece of the jigsaw.

Liverpool, Man Utd, Arsenal and Spurs were expected to be the main challengers to City, and it was the Gunners who put up the best fight. Mikel Arteta’s men finished 2nd overall after appearing in 11.5% of outright betslips at the start of the season.

The shock side to appear in the favourites list, were outsiders Nottingham Forest. Back in the Premier league for the first time since 1999, Steve Cooper’s playoff winners were considerably backed by their loyal supporters as they bid to maintain their promotion momentum.

Southampton and Leeds had flirted with relegation in recent seasons, and 2022/23 saw both clubs finally lose the fight. Leeds had been a relegation favourite with bettors, with 16.9% of outright bet slips predicting their demotion.

Leicester’s slide from 2016 Premier League champions to 2023 relegation had not been unexpected by fans and bet365 customers. Leicester appeared on 9.2% of ‘To Be Relegated’ bet slips, and it came to be on the final day of the season.

Everton had been tipped to go down following consecutive poor seasons on Merseyside, but Sean Dyche’s arrival at the end of the season managed to give the Toffees enough impetus to maintain their Premier League status.

Team	Percentage of bets placed	Actual finishing position
Leeds	16.9	19th
Everton	12.2	17th
Bournemouth	10.2	15th
Leicester	9.2	18th
Nottm Forest	8.6	16th
Brentford	8.4	9th
Fulham	7.9	10th
Southampton	6.6	20th

Much was expected of Erling Haaland in his debut Premier League season, and the City forward did not disappoint. Haaland appeared in over one in five (20.9%) Top Scorer bet slips and repaid bettors with 36 Premier League goals.

Player	Percentage of bets placed	Actual finishing position
Erling Haaland	20.9	1 (36 goals)
Gabriel Jesus	20.2	14 (11 goals)
Harry Kane	10.2	2 (30 goals)
Darwin Nunez	9.4	24 (9 goals)
Mohamed Salah	8.0	4 (19 goals)
Heung-Min Son	4.5	18 (10 goals)
Anthony Martial	4.2	44 (6 goals)
Callum Wilson	2.2	5 (18 goals)

2021/22 Popular Selections

Betting from 24/05/2021 to 12/08/2021

Manchester City started the 2021/22 season as 4/6 title favourites with bet365, but were only the third most backed team by customers as the season got underway. Both Manchester United, 8/1 and with 23.9% of bet slips, and Chelsea, 5/1 with 20.8%, were seemingly more favoured than the citizens.

The season would come down to the final game. But it would be perennial challengers Liverpool, who were bidding to strip City of their title, and in the process, look to secure an unbelievable quadruple.

Having already lifted the League Cup, and the FA Cup following, Liverpool’s run at the end of the season, which included 12 consecutive victories, saw them take the title race to the wire.

A final day filled with drama saw City come from 2-0 down at home to Aston Villa to confirm their fourth title in five years.

Three of the most backed teams in the ‘To Be Relegated’ market would see their fate sealed at the end of the season. Norwich, appearing in 14.1% of outright bet slips, justified the predictions as they were relegated with four games to go.

Watford, another recently promoted team, followed the Canaries out of the Premier League a week later.

Burnley’s fate was decided on the final game of the season. The Clarets were expected to struggle, but only appeared in 6.3% of bet slips, with some bet365 customers expecting them to maintain their Premier League status for a seventh straight season. 

A last day defeat at Newcastle, coupled with a Leeds win away at Brentford, was enough to see Burnley return to the Championship.

Team	Percentage of bets placed	Actual finishing position
Norwich	14.1	20th
Crystal Palace	13.8	12th
Southampton	12.6	15th
Brentford	10.8	13th
Watford	10.4	19th
Wolves	6.7	10th
Burnley	6.3	18th
Newcastle	5.2	11th

The 2020/21 Golden Boot winner Harry Kane was the favourite with bookmakers and customers alike to retain his trophy, as the 2021/22 season approached. It was his team mate however, Heung Min-Son who shared the award in a dead-heat with Liverpool’s Mo Salah.

bet365 had seen 8.6% of all outright Top Scorer bets placed on Salah, but Tottenham’s South Korean star was friendless amongst bettors.

Player	Percentage of bets placed	Actual finishing position
Harry Kane	12.4	4 (17 Goals)
Mohamed Salah	8.6	1 (23 Goals)
Ivan Toney	8.1	11 (12 Goals)
Patrick Bamford	5.3	126 (2 Goals)
Diogo Jota	5.2	6 (15 Goals)
Danny Ings	4.8	39 (7 Goals)
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang	4.3	79 (4 Goals)
Edinson Cavani	4.0	126 (2 Goals)

2020/21 Popular Selections

Betting from 27/07/2020 to 11/09/2020

Liverpool’s first league title in thirty years was not enough to convince the bet365 customers that they could retain their crown, with a decrease in bets placed on them in the outright market for 2020/21.

It wasn’t City who fans were moving towards, but Chelsea.

The Blues, the summer’s big spenders, were backed by almost a quarter of customers at odds of 10 /1 after breaking the bank to sign Kai Havertz, Timo Werner, Hakim Ziyech, and Ben Chilwell for a combined €223.2m. With club hero Frank Lampard in the manager’s hot seat, the club had secured an unlikely Champions League place the season before, and now able to splash the cash, much was expected.

Despite only picking up 15.9% of outright bets ahead of the season, it would be Pep Guardiola’s team who would go on to secure a third title in four years. In a campaign played largely behind closed doors, City would lift the trophy off the back of a 15 game winning streak in early 2021, finishing up 12 points ahead of nearest rivals Manchester United.

Sheffield United, West Brom and Fulham fell through the Premier League trapdoor at the end of season. Many customers had backed the Baggies to be relegated before the season’s launch, with 17.4% of all ‘To Be Relegated’ bets being placed on Slaven Bilic’s men.

Fulham lived up to bettors’ expectations too. The Cottagers finishing 18th, no surprise to the bet365 customers who had backed the newly promoted outfit to drop straight back to the Championship.

Sheffield United however were a surprise. The Blades had finished 9th the season previous and were nowhere to be found in the ‘To Be Relegated’ betting. A woeful season under Chris Wilder however saw them finish bottom of the pile with a measly 23 points.

West Ham and Leeds, both expected to struggle in 2020/21, enjoyed memorable seasons, finishing 6th and 9th respectively.

Team	Percentage of bets placed	Actual finishing position
West Brom	17.4	19th
Fulham	16.0	18th
West Ham	12.1	6th
Aston Villa	8.6	11th
Brighton	8.1	16th
Leeds	7.4	9th
Crystal Palace	6.1	14th
Newcastle	5.8	12th

It was a disappointing season for Top Scorer bettors at bet365 with only Harry Kane delivering on pre-season expectations. The England captain was only the third most backed in the market, but could not be denied the Golden Boot, as he plundered 23 goals for a Spurs team that missed out on the Champions League.

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang once again was the most popular pick before a ball was kicked, and this year he was joined by the likes of Timo Werner, Aleksandar Mitrovic and Anthony Martial. None could come close to Harry Kane however. 

Predicted Top Scorer	Percentage of bets placed	Actual finishing position
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang	18.2	20 (10 Goals)
Timo Werner	15.9	50 (6 Goals)
Harry Kane	5.7	1 (23 Goals)
Aleksandar Mitrovic	5.5	84 (3 Goals)
Jamie Vardy	4.9	7 (15 Goals)
Anthony Martial	4.1	69 (4 Goals)
Michail Antonio	3.8	20 (10 Goals)
Raul Jimenez	3.6	69 (4 Goals)

2019/20 Popular Selections

Betting from 13/05/2019 to 08/08/2019

The 2019/2020 season was one of the most highly anticipated during the Premier League era. In one corner, you had City, the Premier League champions and domestic treble winners, aiming for a third title in a row. In the other you had Liverpool, the side who lifted their sixth Champions League trophy in May 2019, and who only lost out in the previous season’s title race by a single point.

Bet365 customers could not split their preference, with Liverpool receiving 19.7% of all outright, pre-season bets, and City 19.5%. Manchester United, with Ole at the wheel, were 17% third favourites according to bettors and many pundits even predicted a three way race at the top.

In the end, it didn’t turn out that way. Liverpool’s dominance, and Covid 19, would see to that.

The season was halted for three months as the world combatted the pandemic, and when football did return, in mid-June, it was in empty stadiums. That meant that as Liverpool confirmed their first league title since 1990, it was without their fans present.

As the table below shows, bet365 correctly predicted the top three in 2019/20, but it would be Chelsea who stole the final Champions League place over their more fancied London rivals.

Some unexpected names were at the top of the slips in the ‘To Be Relegated’ market. The most backed team were Newcastle, with very low expectations around St James Park. The Geordies would go on to finish a respectable 13th under Steve Bruce but negativity still surrounded the club and its ownership.

Newly promoted Sheffield United, tipped to struggle by 12.9% of all bets, would go on to secure a first top-half finish in the top flight since 1992.

The two biggest names backed in the market were Manchester United and Chelsea, who were seemingly polarising fan opinion. The teams would go on to finish third and fourth respectively, with no relegation worries at all.

Team	Percentage of bets placed	Actual finishing position
Newcastle	29.1	13th
Brighton	15.7	15th
Sheff Utd	12.9	9th
Man Utd	7.3	3rd
Norwich	7.0	20th
Crystal Palace	6.0	14th
Chelsea	3.9	4th
Aston Villa	3.4	17th

It was a case of the usual suspects in the Top Scorer market betting. Aubameyang would go on to justify the favouritism showed by bet365 customers with another 22 goal haul, but, he would be usurped by Leicester’s dynamic frontman Jamie Vardy.

Vardy, backed by 8.4% of all outright slips to be the deadliest marksman, would go on to fire 23 Premier League goals in 2019/20, adding a Golden Boot to his Premier League and FA Cup winners’ medals.

Raheem Sterling of Manchester City would enjoy the most prolific season of his career, notching 20 goals and finishing fourth in the scorers’ charts.

Predicted Top Scorer	Percentage of bets placed	Actual finishing position
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang	19.2	2 (22 Goals)
Harry Kane	12.4	6 (18 Goals)
Jamie Vardy	8.4	1 (23 Goals)
Mohamed Salah	7.4	5 (19 Goals)
Sergio Aguero	5.5	11 (16 Goals)
Raheem Sterling	4.5	4 (20 Goals)
Sadio Mane	4.4	6 (18 Goals)
Marcus Rashford	2.7	8 (17 Goals)

2018/19 Popular Selections

Betting from 14/05/2018 – 09/08/2018

It’s the summer of 2018 and despite Manchester City firing in 106 goals and 100 points to lift the Premier League title, it is Liverpool who fans are siding with for the season ahead. As the 2018/19 season approached, the Reds, who had lost out to Real Madrid in the Champions League final, had received 31% of all Premier League outright bets.

City, looking for back-to-back titles for the first time in their history, were the second favourites with bet365, accumulating 21.3% of all outright title bets.

The table below shows the predicted placings for each of the top eight most backed teams in August 2018, with each team’s actual finishing position. As we can see, City would go on to lift the title winning their last 14 league games and retained the league title on the final day of the season, finishing on 98 points. Liverpool finished runners-up with 97 points – the highest total in English top-flight history for a second-placed team.

At the other end of the table, the two most backed team for relegation would succumb to the drop, with Huddersfield, selected in 13.9% of all ‘To Be Relegated’ bets, having their return to the Championship confirmed before the end of March.

Fulham, expected to avoid any relegation trouble according to the bet slip predictions, joined Huddersfield with five games remaining. The final team to be relegated were the bet365 customers pick, Cardiff City, who with 14.9% of all relegation bets, would lose their Premier League status on May 4.

Team	Percentage of bets placed	Actual finishing position
Cardiff	14.9	18th
Huddersfield	13.9	20th
Newcastle	12.2	13th
Southampton	11.3	16th
Everton	6.3	8th
Leicester	5.7	9th
Bournemouth	5.4	14th
Brighton	4.7	17th

It would turn out to be a dead heat in the Top Scorer market at bet365 following a three-way shoot out at the top of the goal scoring charts. Arsenal’s Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, the most backed player in the Top Scorer market, would go on to prove customers right, but he was joined on 22 goals by Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane.

Harry Kane, a friend of Top Scorer bettors throughout his career, would finish sixth in the goal scoring standings with 17 Premier League goals.

Predicted Top Scorer	Percentage of bets placed	Actual finishing position
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang	20.0	1 (22 Goals)
Mohamed Salah	11.0	1 (22 Goals)
Harry Kane	9.8	6 (17 Goals)
Roberto Firmino	8.2	16 (12 Goals)
Romelu Lukaku	7.1	16 (12 Goals)
Sergio Aguero	7.0	4 (21 Goals)
Sadio Mane	5.0	1 (22 Goals)
Alexandre Lacazette	4.7	10 (13 Goals)