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Politics Odds: MPs at risk of losing their seats at the general election

The announcement from Rishi Sunak on 22nd May to call an early July election took most people by surprise, not least members of his own party.

The Conservatives have been lagging well behind in the polls since the mini-budget of September 2022 that brought about the end of Liz Truss's brief premiership, with most commentators predicting the Prime Minister would hold off for as long as possible to hope for some kind of bounce.

But the decision to go to the polls this summer will almost certainly see a comfortable Labour win, and although many leading Conservative MPs have already announced they'll step down at the next election, there are a number of notable names at risk of being unseated.

bet365 have odds on the majority of UK constituencies, and we look at some of the most prominent at-risk MPs below.


Suella Braverman (Fareham and Waterlooville)

Member of Parliament for the soon-to-be-abolished constituency of Fareham, Suella Braverman, has a fight on her hands to remain an MP at the upcoming election with the former Attorney General and two-time Home Secretary in danger of losing an overwhelming majority.

Fareham has been Conservative-held dating back to 1885 and is one of the Tories' safest seats (its lowest vote share since 1974 when Labour's Harold Wilson won the election is 47.8% in 1997, when Labour won a landslide), but is at risk of going red at the next election, as Fareham becomes the newly created constituency of Fareham and Waterlooville.

The Conservatives are 8/13 to win Fareham and Waterlooville and Labour are 6/5.

Iain Duncan Smith (Chingford and Woodford Green)

Ahead of a night where we'll likely see many Portillo moments, the unseating of Iain Duncan Smith may well be the biggest.

The leader of the Conservatives from 2001 to 2003, IDS spent a number of years in cabinet positions and has been an MP since 1992. But having seen his majority shrink to just 1,262 at the 2019 election, Labour looks primed to take the seat for the first time.

Initially priced at 1/9, however, Labour have since drifted to 1/5 and now 4/11, with the Conservatives being cut from 11/2 to 7/2 and now 11/5 after the Labour Party blocked prospective candidate Faiza Shaheen (who lost by just 2.6% at the 2019 election) from standing regarding posts she liked on her X (formerly Twitter) account.

Shaheen announced her intention to run as an independent, though, and is 12/1 to win.

Jacob Rees-Mogg (Somerset North East and Hanham)

First elected to North East Somerset in 2010, Jacob Rees-Mogg faces a fight to retain his seat following the boundary changes which will see the seat become North East Somerset and Hanham.

The seat will be partly made up by around half of the former Kingswood constituency, which Labour's Damien Egan won with a 17.5% swing in February 2024.

Labour's representative for the seat will be Dan Norris, a Member of Parliament between 1997 and 2010, with Labour 4/11 (was 4/9) to win and unseat Rees-Mogg, with the Conservatives 7/2 (was 13/8).

Lee Anderson (Ashfield)

Former Deputy Chairman of the Conservative Party, Lee Anderson resigned his post to vote against the Government regarding the Rwanda asylum plan (before ultimately abstaining).

Anderson then had the whip suspended over comments made around Sadiq Khan and Sir Keir Starmer, defecting to Reform UK.

Anderson is set to stand as a Reform candidate in the general election, and has been cut from 5/1 to 13/5 to hold onto his seat following the news Nigel Farage would run in Clacton, with Labour 8/15, and the Ashfield Independent candidate - Jason Zadrozny, who stood as the Ashfield Independent candidate in 2019, coming second behind Anderson - 19/4.

Penny Mordaunt (Portsmouth North)

A two-time Conservative Party leader candidate, Penny Mordaunt is being eyed up by many as the successor to Rishi Sunak, whenever the Prime Minster hands over the reigns.

But the MP for Portsmouth North isn't even guaranteed to be a Member of Parliament after the general election. Labour have drifted from slight favourites to slight underdogs at 1/1 behind the 5/6 Conservatives, but the Prime Minister's decision to leave the D-Day commemorations in France early will likely have a significant impact on Mordaunt's constituency of Portsmouth North, particularly as it's where the Royal Navy is based.

Labour are now 8/15 to win the seat, while the Conservatives are 11/8 to hold.

Grant Shapps (Welwyn Hatfield)

One of the most prominent Conservative MPs since his election in 2005, Grant Shapps looks set to lose his seat in the upcoming election.

Labour are as short as 1/8 to win in Welwyn Hatfield, while the Conservatives are 5/1.

Johnny Mercer (Plymouth Moor View)

Former British Army officer and current Veterans' Minister Johnny Mercer is another prominent Conservative who looks set to lose his seat in the upcoming election.

Labour are in from 2/7 to 1/6 favourites to win Mercer's seat of Plymouth Moor View, with the Conservatives 4/1, despite taking more than 60% of the vote in 2019.

Kwasi Kwarteng (Spelthorne)

Despite being Chancellor of the Exchequer little more than 18 months ago, Kwasi Kwarteng is in danger of losing his seat.

Alongside then-Prime Minister Liz Truss, Kwarteng's mini-budget of 2022 saw the Conservatives tank in the polls which they've never really recovered from, and despite winning with a 37.2% majority in 2019, the seat looks to be much closer this time around.

Labour are now 10/11 favourites (was 6/4) to take the seat of Spelthorne in 2024, with the Liberal Democrats 7/2 (was 2/1 having briefly been 11/8 favourites) and the Conservatives 13/8 (was 7/4).

Jonathan Gullis (Stoke-on-Trent North)

One of the most prominent Conservative back-benchers, Jonathan Gullis was made deputy chairman of the Conservative Party in March 2024, but is expected to lose his seat at the upcoming election.

Labour are 1/12 to win Stoke-on-Trent North with the Conservatives 7/1.

Therese Coffey (Suffolk Coastal)

Former Environment, Health and Work and Pensions Secretary Therese Coffey may be set to lose the seat she's held since 2010.

Exclusively Conservative since it was created in 1983, Suffolk Coastal is another historically safe Tory seat at risk, with Labour 8/15 (was 4/9) to win with the Conservatives 11/8 (was 13/8).

Gillian Keegan (Chichester)

Currently third favourites to win, the Conservatives may retain the seat of Chichester, which has been Conservative every election since 1924, but the party faces a battle with not just one but two opponents.

Represented by Education Secretary Gillian Keegan, Chichester may be one of a number of constituencies to vote out a cabinet minister with the Liberal Democrats 6/4, Labour 13/8 and the Conservatives 2/1.

Mark Harper (Forest of Dean)

Sitting on the Welsh border, Forest of Dean was a Labour seat in the early 20th century before being abolished in 1950. The seat was reinstalled in 1997 and won by Labour again until Mark Harper's victory in 2005, where he's been an MP ever since.

But the Transport Secretary looks to be another cabinet minister struggling for reelection with the Conservatives 7/4 and Labour 2/5.

Richard Holden (Basildon and Billericay)

The chairman of the Conservative Party, Richard Holden has recently come under scrutiny for being installed as the candidate for the traditionally safe seat of Basildon and Billericay (won with a 46.3% majority in 2019), despite previously declaring his loyalty to the north east.

Critics have claimed it is a ploy to keep the party chairman in parliament with North West Durham dissolved and four new constituencies created, but Holden is still not assured of a seat, with Labour 5/4 to win in the Essex constituency and the Conservatives 4/7.

Victoria Prentis (Banbury)

The current Attorney General, Victoria Prentis has been an MP since 2015, but despite being in another safe Tory seat that has been Conservative ever since 1922, Labour are big favourites to win the seat at 2/7, with the Conservatives 5/2 to hold.

Lucy Frazer (Ely and East Cambridgeshire)

Culture Secretary Lucy Frazer is another cabinet minister at risk of losing her seat at the upcoming general election.

Previously the MP for South East Cambridgeshire, which has been Tory since its creation in 1983, Frazer was elected in 2015 but will stand in the newly created constituency of Ely and East Cambridgeshire in 2024.

The Liberal Democrats are 1/1 to win with the Conservatives 8/5.

Andrea Jenkyns (Leeds South West and Morley)

Formerly Morley and Outwood, the new constituency of Leeds South West and Morley will see Andrea Jenkyns defend her seat, but in what has traditionally been a Labour area, the seat is expected to turn red once again.

Jenkyns came under fire for holding up a middle finger to protesters on her way to Boris Johnson's resignation speech, and the Conservatives are 10/1 to win the seat, with Labour 1/20.

Philip Davies (Shipley)

Perhaps the most notable Tory rebel, Philip Davies has voted against the Government more than 350 times across his 19 years in parliament.

Davies is set to stand in the next election (though may still step down to focus more on his media work with GB News, though that choice could be made for him, with Labour 1/6 to win Shipley and the Conservatives 4/1) but faces a huge fight to retain his seat.

Damian Green (Ashford)

In what would be one of the biggest swings on general election night - if not the biggest - Damian Green faces a battle to retain his seat of Ashford in Kent, with Labour 1/2 (was 4/6) to win and the Conservatives 11/10.

Ashford has been Conservative since 1951, with Green first elected in 1997, winning most recently in 2019 with a whopping majority of 40.1%.

Esther McVey (Tatton)

Perhaps best known for her time on ITV's GMTV before entering politics, Esther McVey may be about to be unseated for a second time in her Westminster career.

McVey was beaten in her former Wirral West seat in 2015 before taking former Chancellor George Osborne's safe seat of Tatton in Cheshire in 2017.

Labour have never had more than 28.5% of the vote in Tatton, but are 4/7 (was 8/15) to win the seat for a first time, while the Conservatives are 5/4 (was 11/8) to hold.

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