PGA Tour Preview: Ben Everill on the Pebble Beach Pro-Am

It’s a unique week on the PGA Tour where former football sensation Gareth Bale or actor Jason Bateman are in as high demand as the likes of Jordan Spieth and Viktor Hovland… welcome to the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. 

For decades, the legends of screen, music, comedy, sports and titans of industry have joined the Tour’s best over three of the most picturesque courses in California for this tournament and while fun and frivolity certainly exist – so does serious competition. 

Each of the 156 Tour players in the field play a round on Pebble Beach Golf Links, Spyglass Hill and Monterey Peninsula over the opening three days before a 54-hole cut and a return to Pebble Beach for Sunday’s final round. 

The multi-layered distractions of amateur golfers doing their best on Tour level courses, crowds clamouring for time with golfers and celebs alike, and slow pace of play is something those contending will need to negotiate. And then there is the weather. Cold temps, wind squalls at the wrong time… the luck of the draw is certainly present as Monterey plays easier than Pebble which plays easier than Spyglass most years. 

While those issues are hard to quantify, outside of that we must look to the age-old statistic of Greens in Regulation (GIR) as the putting surfaces at Pebble Beach are on average the smallest on the PGA Tour. Over the last 11 seasons the winner at Pebble Beach has ranked inside the top 10 for GIR. It’s a true second shot golf course where Strokes Gained: Approach is heavily favoured. 

It’s one thing to hit a lot of greens, but you also need to be close enough to take advantage on the bumpy poa annua. This behoves us to look at proximity to the hole. And if you do happen to miss, you better be ready to rank high in scrambling. 

Given the majority of shots come with wedges, from 100-125 yards, we need to look at those who excel from this distance. And to finish off, the last eight winners have all ranked first or second in Par-4 scoring.

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Here is a look at the players in this field currently ranking inside the top 25 on Tour in these key stats. 

Greens In Regulation

7 – Matt Fitzpatrick
16 – Tom Hoge 
24 – Kevin Yu 
25 – Nick Hardy 

Note: Last season Russell Knox (2), Taylor Pendrith (10), Brandon Wu (19), Joseph Bramlett (22), and Hardy (25) all ranked inside the top 25 of this stat.

Strokes Gained: Approach

1 – Tom Hoge 
3 – Sung Kang 
5 – Nick Hardy 
6 – Russell Knox
12 – James Hahn
20 – Matthew NeSmith
22 – Ben Martin
25 – Davis Riley

Note: Last season Tom Hoge (11), Viktor Hovland (15), Mark Hubbard (20), Luke Donald (24), and Russell Knox (25) all ranked inside the top 25 of this stat.

Proximity to Hole

2 – Tom Hoge 
4 – Russell Knox 
5 – Satoshi Kodaira 
6 – Brendon Todd
8 – Ryan Armour
8 – Sung Kang
10 – Hank Lebioda
11 – Lucas Glover
15 – Cameron Percy
18 – Matt Kuchar
18 – Nick Hardy
21 – Jonathan Byrd
21 – Justin Suh
23 – Nick Taylor

Note: Last season Armour (1), Vaughn Taylor (4), Russell Knox (5), Justin Rose (6), Lucas Glover (11), Cameron Percy (14), Joel Dahmen (15), Austin Smotherman (17), Viktor Hovland (18) and Tom Hoge (21) all ranked inside the top 25 of this stat.

Scrambling

1 – Matt Kuchar
3 – Andrew Putnam
4 – Aaron Baddeley 
7 – Maverick McNealy
9 – Joel Dahmen
11 – Thomas Detry
14 – Denny McCarthy
18 – William McGirt
24 – Mark Hubbard
25 – Matt Fitzpatrick

Note: Last season Matt Fitzpatrick (1), Matt Kuchar (2), Andrew Putnam (6), Denny McCarthy (7), Jonathan Byrd (9), Brendon Todd (14), Kevin Streelman (15), Tom Hoge (16), Adam Long (17), Mark Hubbard (19), Keith Mitchell (20), Vaughn Taylor (21), Bill Haas (23) and Brice Garnett (25) all ranked inside the top 25 of this stat.

Approach from 100-125 yards

3 – Tom Hoge 
4 – Brendon Todd 
5 – Scott Brown 
7 – Camilo Villegas
9 – Brian Stuard
13 – Rory Sabbatini
14 – Russell Knox
15 – Hank Lebioda
17 – Nate Lashley 
22 – Philip Knowles

Note: Last season Camilo Villegas (2), Tom Hoge (3), S.Y. Noh (14), Scott Stallings (15), Austin Cook (16), Satoshi Kodaira (19), Jordan Spieth (19), Brendon Todd (23) and Webb Simpson (25) all ranked inside the top 25 of this stat.

Par-4 Scoring

5 – Tom Hoge 
5 – Thomas Detry 
11 – Erik van Rooyen 
11 – Seamus Power
14 – Aaron Baddeley
20 – Joel Dahmen
20 – Maverick McNealy

Note: Last season Nate Lashley (10), Seamus Power (10), Jordan Spieth (10), Viktor Hovland (17), Matt Kuchar (17) and Denny McCarthy (17) all ranked inside the top 20 of this stat.

TOP OF THE BOARD

There are three clear favourites this week in Jordan Spieth 10/1, Matt Fitzpatrick 10/1 and Viktor Hovland 11/1. They are the only players inside the top 25 in the world rankings in the field.

Spieth makes his 11th consecutive start in the tournament which he won in 2017. He’s chasing his fourth consecutive top 10 having finished runner up a year ago, which came a year after being T3. The three-time major winner has finished T22 or better in nine of his 10 attempts and has never missed the cut. 

Hovland’s T30 from 2020 is his only tournament appearance prior but the Norwegian won the 2018 U.S. Amateur at Pebble Beach. He then backed it up a year later with a T12 as an amateur at the U.S. Open at Pebble, breaking Jack Nicklaus’ record for the lowest score by an amateur in the process. 

Fitzpatrick missed the cut in 2019 and was T60 in 2020 but those results were near forgotten after a T6 a year ago. Of course, the Englishman would later go on to win the U.S. Open last season to cement himself an even bigger star. 

Of the three it’s hard to go against Spieth’s track record but Fitzpatrick is a green finding machine. For Hovland, the key will likely be not putting his short game under pressure. 

There is an argument to bypass all three and take the better odds for defending champion Tom Hoge at 20/1. Hoge is the clear constant across the key stats this week and will be sky high in confidence. 

SLEEPERS

Scotsman Russell Knox (60/1) pops up all over our key stats this week. He has three top-15s in the tournament over the last five years and was stalled by an unlucky penalty for a moving ball in one of those. 

Nick Hardy (60/1) missed the cut on debut in the tournament a year ago but returns as a top 25 ranked player in Strokes Gained: Approach, GIR and Proximity. 

Brendon Todd (70/1) is a proven Tour winner who ranks highly in proximity and wedge shots from 100-125 yards. As an aside, he’s a great putter also. Has two career top 10s and was T16 a year ago in the tournament but has also missed five cuts here from nine starts. 

LONGSHOTS

With all the variables at this event it certainly isn’t uncommon for a longshot winner to come along. In recent times the likes of Nick Taylor (+125/1 in 2020), Ted Potter Jr. (+500/1 in 2018) and Vaughn Taylor (+300/1 in 2016) have all prevailed. 

Aussie Aaron Baddeley (175/1) has been scrambling well this season and rates highly in Par-4 scoring. He will need to have a better than average week on approach to go with it. 

Hank Lebioda (600/1) is a lottery pick for sure, but his proximity and wedge play did flash up in the key stats… so you’re saying there’s a chance.