Opinion: Arsenal will fall short in pursuit of UEFA Champions League final

Arsenal head into the second leg of the UEFA Champions League semi-final just a goal down, but Paris Saint-Germain will prove too much for the Gunners in the French capital.

A team that has fallen short on so many occasions domestically in recent years, Mikel Arteta’s side are not accustomed to competing at this stage of Europe’s most prestigious competition.

While Arsenal have undoubtedly made progress since the arrival of Arteta, they’re yet to show that they can take the final step over the line when needed.

Second in the 2022/23 Premier League campaign, second in the 2023/24 Premier League term, and set to finish second for a third consecutive time in the league this time round.

While the UEFA Champions League offers a different test, and the Gunners have been impressive in the competition up to now, a semi-final trip to Paris will prove too much for Arsenal.

Why Arsenal will fall short against Paris Saint-Germain

Arteta’s Arsenal are a well-oiled, compact and disciplined side that can frustrate teams with a low block, but this game plan can’t be utilized agains Paris Saint-Germain.

In Arsenal’s quarter-final tie against Real Madrid, a remarkable 3-0 victory at the Emirates meant they could travel to Madrid with no real need to score, but instead denying Los Blancos from creating clear-cut chances.

They executed their game plan to perfection, coming away with a 2-1 win on the night.

The difference lies in the fact that Arsenal don’t go into this game with an objective of protecting a lead. They simply have to win inside 90 minutes.

If Arteta’s side are to start the game on the front foot in pursuit of an all-important first goal, there is every chance that PSG pick them apart.

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Ousmane Dembele and Desire Doue are amongst the most threatening forwards in Europe and a more attacking game plan could allow them the space to finish the tie.

Should the Gunners err on the side of caution and opt for a more defensive system, they will no doubt be looking for a smash-and-grab, similar to what Liverpool managed at the round of 16 stage.

That strategy could also land Arsenal in a world of trouble however.

In PSG’s last three home UEFA Champions League contests, they have combined for 76 shots, averaged 72% possession and scored 10 goals.

A heroic performance from Alisson Becker was the only thing standing in the Parisians' way of comfortably winning three consecutive UEFA Champions League home ties.

The way to approach this game will undoubtedly play on Mikel Arteta’s mind.

Attack the game and risk being left exposed on the counter attack, or employ a solid defensive block and attempt to grab a goal on the break.

Either way, Arsenal will not triumph at Parc des Princes.

Stats to consider

• Arsenal have never overturned a result in the UEFA Champions League knockout stages when losing the first leg at home.
• Arsenal have only kept one clean sheet in their last 16 away games in the UEFA Champions League.
• Arsenal have never knocked out a French team in the UEFA Champions League.
• Arsenal have never won five consecutive UEFA Champions League games away from home (currently on a run of four).
• Arsenal haven't won any of their last six semi-final fixtures in all competitions.
• Luis Enrique has never lost at home to Arsenal in his playing & managerial career.

You can see all the latest UEFA Champions League odds on our dedicated UEFA Champions League hub.

Ellis Statham

• Arsenal F.C.
• Paris Saint-Germain F.C.
• UEFA Champions League
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