Olympics Golf: Prediction, Tips and Odds

The world's elite golfers gather in Paris for the chance to win Olympic gold and the PGA TOUR's Mike Glasscott has shared his prediction and tips for the event.

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Olympics Golf Tips

Win: Xander Schauffele (13/2), Jon Rahm (9/1)
Top 3: Collin Morikawa (4/1)
Top 5: Tommy Fleetwood (15/4), Alex Noren (9/2), Guido Migliozzi (11/1)
Top 10: Ryan Fox (4/1), Thorbjorn Olesen (4/1), CT Pan (7/1)

Le Golf National course guide

Designed in 1990 by architects Hubert Chesneau and Robert Von Hagge, the former pastureland in the southwest suburbs of Paris has served as the home of the Open de France since 1991.

The host of the 2018 Ryder Cup, the event will play 7,174 yards to Par-71 (36-35) for the Olympics.

The transformed farmland turned into rolling terrain with 10 water penalty areas. Trucked-in dirt from Paris created viewing areas, mounds, and slight elevation changes, especially around the greens. Narrow fairways are framed by three cuts of rough, the last layer of defense reaching four inches or better. Greens and fairways are protected by 51 bunkers plus water penalty areas spread over 10 holes.

Ball strikers who find the short grass off the tee will fire at flagsticks on the above-average green complexes. Creeping Bentgrass mixed with Poa annua is a familiar surface, and the greens average between 6,500 and 8,600 square feet. Those playing from off the fairways will have chances to recover. The greens will be rolling at “Olympic Speed” but I’ll remind you that the Women’s Olympic Golf tournament is slated to be played on this same course next week.

The powerful finish, a four-hole stretch featuring two island greens and two of the three longest Par-4 holes, Nos. 17 and 18 playing 480 and 471, respectively.

Since the 2016 renovation for the Ryder Cup, the winning score for the Open de France, the annual championship contested on the DP World Tour, has averaged just a shade over 12-under-par.

Guido Migliozzi, in the field this week, produced the lowest winning total, 16-under 268, during his 2022 victory.

Alex Noren, also in the field this week, produced the highest winning total, seven-under 277 when he won in 2018.

Men's Olympic Golf preview

Golf was abandoned after the 1904 edition in St. Louis but returned for the 2016 Games in Rio de Janeiro, won by Justin Rose (not entered).

The 2020 edition was postponed to 2021 to allow a safer environment in Tokyo. Xander Schauffele outlasted the field to win the gold medal at Kasumigaseki Country Club, and C.T. Pan won a seven-man playoff for the bronze medal.

There are three former winners of the Open de France entered. Led by 2022 winner Guido Migliozzi, the field includes 2017 champion Tommy Fleetwood plus 2018 winner Alexander Noren.

The field consists of 60 players from 32 countries. The loaded event features the top seven players and 10 of the top 15 in the Official World Golf Rankings.

All 60 players will play 72 holes of stroke play. There is no cut.

Schauffele and Pan are the only players in the field that have previously won a medal.

Any ties for medal consideration will be broken via playoff. From the International Golf Federation:

“If two athletes are tied for the lead after 72 holes, a hole-by-hole playoff will be conducted to determine the gold and silver medals, or if three or more athletes are tied for the first position, a playoff will be conducted to determine the gold, silver and bronze medals. If two or more athletes are tied for the second position, a playoff will be conducted to determine the silver and bronze medals. If two or more athletes are tied for the third position, a playoff will be conducted for the bronze medal. In any case, only one gold, one silver and one bronze medal will be awarded.”

The gold medal winner will receive Official World Ranking Points, entry into all four major championships in 2025, and a spot in THE PLAYERS Championship. If a member of the PGA TOUR, the winner will be eligible for The Sentry in January.

Top of the Board

Scottie Scheffler (4/1): Don’t let the pictures on social media of the World Number 1 enjoying the events with his wife and child distract you. The Texan is always all business behind the scenes, but his only “struggles” this season have come on new courses to him. He posted T8, T41, and T7 during the three rotating majors, yet he posted all six wins on tracks he’s previously had success or reps. I’m running out of ways to express my disdain for playing the favorite!

Xander Schauffele (13/2): The reigning Olympics Men’s Golf champion, the Californian has plenty of winning stamps on his passport. The 2018 WGC-Champions winner in China has also won twice in Scotland, including the 2024 Open Championship. Other victories at The Sentry and East Lake against elite fields on difficult routings reinforce his class. If the lid is truly off, he will be the first player to win two gold medals in Men’s Golf.

Rory McIlroy (8/1): The only player from the top three choices to play this course in a tournament setting, the four-time major winner has unfinished business on this course and at this event. One of the seven men in the playoff for bronze in 2021, McIlroy has finished third and fourth in two visits to the Open de France and won the 2018 Ryder Cup.

Jon Rahm (9/1): Posting a top 10 in the final major of the season for the first time in 2024, the Spaniard is rounding into form. In two previous attempts at Le Golf National, the two-time major winner has cashed in the top 10 each visit. No longer bothered by a foot problem, he’s free to put the pedal to the metal and enjoy his first visit to the Olympic Games.

Collin Morikawa (10/1): One of the most demanding courses off the tee, the two-time major champion relishes the challenge. Not many hit it better off the peg, and his current form is of zero concern. Posting T16 or better in every event stretching back to the Masters, the only missing piece is a victory.

Ludvig Åberg (14/1): A season of firsts continues for the World Number 4. From The Sentry through THE PLAYERS and his first four major championships, I would not think another high-profile event would change his thought process or demeanor. All the players above him have more reps, but he has similar talent. Nobody will have an advantage on the greens this week; that won’t hurt his chances.

Players to consider for a medal or Top 10 action

Tommy Fleetwood: Never having won in the USA or on the PGA TOUR, this would be the week for the breakthrough. A winner at the 2017 Open de France and 2018 Ryder Cup on this track, the Team Great Britain athlete is playing in his second Olympics.

Thorbjorn Olesen: One of five players from the victorious 2018 Ryder Cup team, the Dane has hit the top 10 four times in nine visits at Le Golf National, including T10 in 2023 and a runner-up payday on debut in 2010.

Alex Noren: Like Fleetwood, the Swede has not won on the PGA TOUR but has won in Europe and at this layout. The winner in 2018 returned two months later to help the European team win the Ryder Cup. Cashing T10 and T13 in his last two starts in Scotland, form isn’t an issue.

C.T. Pan: The Taiwanese star cashed T30 in Rio de Janeiro, fought off six others for bronze in Tokyo, and will be making his third appearance.

Ryan Fox: One of four players to play in all three Olympics, the Kiwi has a pair of T18 or better paydays from five starts at Le Golf National in his memory bank. A big hitter, the putter covers this inaccuracy.

Guido Migliozzi: A winner seven weeks ago in Europe, he returns to the site of his 2022 victory. Cashing T4 and T14 in two visits to the U.S. Open suggest his game is designed for tough layouts.