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Nigel Farage's Reform UK general election odds

Reform UK are 6/4 (was 2/1) to win 1-2 seats at the upcoming general election following recent polls that have had them battling with the Conservatives to be the second highest party.


Reform stood down in many constituencies in the 2019 election where they felt they may split the right-wing vote and allow Labour candidates in, but there has been no such pact this time. The majority of Reform voters will be defecting from the Conservatives, who are staring at a potential electoral wipeout.

The election is as good as settled with Labour set to take power for the first time since 2010, and many leading Conservatives are already in damage limitation mode, with Grant Shapps recently claiming the party are fighting to prevent a Labour ‘supermajority’ that could see them win more than the 418 seats earned under Tony Blair in 1997.

The Conservatives are 7/4 (was 12/5) to win 100-149 seats – the upper bound of which would represent a relatively considerable success, despite still being fewer than the 165 won in the nadir of 1997, but they’re just Evs (was 13/10) to win 50-99 and 15/2 (was 7/2) for 49 or fewer which presents the unthinkable possibility of them not even being the official opposition.

On a recent TV debate, each party’s representative was allowed to ask one question of another representative, and rather than targeting Labour’s Angela Rayner, leader Nigel Farage pointed the finger at the Conservatives’ Penny Mordaunt, giving a good indication of where their sights are set in the 2024 election.

Farage recently announced his intention to stand as an MP in Clacton despite saying in February ‘Do I want to spend every Friday for the next five years in Clacton?’. The seat elected Conservative MP Douglas Carswell in 2010, who then defected to UKIP, being re-elected in the 2014 by-election and winning again with UKIP in the 2015 general election.

Reform are 7/1 (was 4/1) to win no seats at the 2024 election, but it’s expected Farage will win in Clacton (1/7, Conservatives 11/2).

Despite polls which have Reform around 18% and the Conservatives around 17%, it’s not expected at the moment that party can win any more than a handful of seats, with their vote likely to harm the Conservatives and hand more seats to Labour, but there will be select targeted seats where they could gain MPs.

Former deputy chairman of the Conservative Party Lee Anderson defected to Reform and is 6/5 to remain as an MP in Ashfield, while Boston and Skegness (Evs) and Great Yarmouth (13/8) were two of the highest Leave-voting constituencies in the EU Referendum and are the most likely seats for Reform, who are 11/2 to win 3-4, 6/1 to win 5-6 seats and 7/4 to win 7 or more.

Time is running out for polling numbers to shift, and it's expected Reform will take at around 15% if upwards of 20% of the vote, with the party just 5/4 (was 9/4) to win more than 20%.

Assuming Reform do record around 20% of the vote, when accounting for Labour, the Liberal Democrats, Greens and others, it could leave the Conservatives with less than 25%, representing their worst ever election result.

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