The NFL puts on its first Paris show on Sunday as the Pittsburgh Steelers and New Orleans Saints face off in the City of Light.
The Steelers arrive in France with a 4-2 record and plenty of momentum, while the Saints are one win away from the top of the NFC South after last week's 34-27 win over the New York Giants.
Pittsburgh's play-off push has largely been driven by a defence that continues to rank among the league's most disruptive units.
T.J. Watt remains the focal point, while the Steelers' secondary has capitalised on mistakes, helping the team register 10 takeaways through six games.
So there could be some problems ahead for Saints quarterback Tyler Shough, who is having an up-and-down second season in the NFL.
His 14 offensive touchdowns have been somewhat offset by eight costly turnovers and the Saints have committed 12 giveaways as a team.
Conditions may also play a role in Paris with forecasts of windy weather and the possibility of a soggy playing surface following pre-game rain.
Those factors could limit explosive passing plays and encourage both teams to lean into their running games, which should suit Pittsburgh perfectly.
New Orleans Saints v Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Tips
Best Bet - Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 @ 27/25
Alternative Bet - Under 44.5 points @ 25/27
Bet Builder - Aaron Rodgers under 236.5 passing yards, Pat Freiermuth under 30.5 receiving yards & Jaylen Warren to score a second half touchdown @ 9/1
New Orleans Saints v Pittsburgh Steelers Prediction
Best Bet: Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 @ 27/25
The Steelers' travel schedule has left them open to criticism if they perform poorly in Paris, but recent history suggest the last team to make the transatlantic trip wins.
The last four International Series matches in London have been won by the second team on the scene, including the 2.5-point underdog Houston Texans when facing a Jacksonville Jaguars team playing back-to-back UK games last week.
There are plenty of more tangible reasons why Pittsburgh should rise to the occasion.
The Saints have been careless with the football all season, committing 12 turnovers through six games, while the Steelers' defence has consistently generated takeaways and pressure.
Shough's problems become even more concerning when examining how Pittsburgh defends.
The Saints quarterback has thrown five interceptions against zone coverage this season, and the Steelers deploy zone on one of the highest percentages of defensive snaps in the NFL.
Five of Pittsburgh's six interceptions have come while playing zone coverage.
If New Orleans falls behind and is forced into obvious passing situations, Watt and company could take over the contest.
Offensively, the Steelers are likely to attack a Saints defence that has struggled to stop opposing RBs.
Jaylen Warren is averaging close to 120 scrimmage yards per game and faces one of the friendliest matchups in football. New Orleans have already allowed huge performances to Jahmyr Gibbs, Bijan Robinson and Aaron Jones this season.
Pittsburgh should enjoy success controlling possession, winning the battle in the trenches and forcing the Saints into mistakes, making the Steelers attractive to cover the spread.
Alternative Bet: Under 44.5 points @ 25/27
Several factors point towards a lower-scoring game.
Weather conditions in Paris could make life difficult for both quarterbacks, with wind expected to restrict downfield passing and potential rain creating a slick surface.
Those conditions often lead to longer drives, fewer explosive plays and a greater emphasis on field position.
The Steelers are unlikely to engage in a shootout if they gain an early lead. Their preferred formula is to lean on the running game, trust their defence and limit unnecessary risks.
Even if New Orleans move the ball at times, sustaining drives against the Steelers' defence may prove challenging.
A game script built around defence, rushing attempts and conservative play-calling points towards a total that doesn’t exceed 44.5 points.
New Orleans Saints v Pittsburgh Steelers Bet Builder Tip
Aaron Rodgers under 236.5 passing yards
Pat Freiermuth under 30.5 receiving yards
Jaylen Warren to score a second half touchdown
Pays 9/1
Rodgers has been efficient this season, his success coming from short gains rather than prolific passing totals.
Blustery conditions in Paris further strengthen the case for the veteran quarterback to finish below 236.5 passing yards.
Pat Freiermuth's under also stands out as the Steelers tight end has gone under similar receiving-yardage lines in four of his last five games and now faces a Saints defence that uses zone coverage at one of the highest rates in the NFL.
The Saints have allowed huge rushing performances throughout the season and are struggling to stop running backs near the goalline, so a second-half Warren touchdown could also be on the cards.
Key Match Stats
Pittsburgh are 4-2 entering Week 7, while New Orleans are 2-4
The Steelers have recorded 10 takeaways through six games
The Saints have committed 12 turnovers this season
Warren has amassed 718 scrimmage yards in six games
New Orleans are allowing an NFL-high 116.8 rushing yards per game to running backs
Freiermuth has gone under 32.5 receiving yards in four of his last five games
Tactics, Form and Team News
For New Orleans, ball security will be paramount.
Shough possesses the talent to create explosive plays, but his decision-making has been inconsistent and Pittsburgh are well equipped to capitalise on mistakes.
Pittsburgh's offensive identity has evolved in recent weeks, with Rodgers increasingly relying on Warren and WR Germie Bernard rather than forcing the ball deep downfield.
Defensively, the Steelers should continue to lean on Watt's pass rush while challenging Shough to beat their disciplined zone schemes.
Read more NFL betting tips and predictions on site.
This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
