Green Bay Packers travel to Foxborough to take on New England Patriots in one of the most anticipated matchups of the Week 9 NFL slate.
Both teams enter the contest with identical 5-3 records but, while the Patriots are only one win back of Buffalo in an ordinary AFC East, the Packers sit at the foot of the ultra-competitive NFC North right now.
New England have won four of their last five games and are riding high after a 24-19 victory over Miami Dolphins in which Drake Maye threw and ran for touchdowns to inspire a second-half comeback.
Green Bay have also recovered strongly from a 1-2 start, but there remain concerns surrounding the consistency of Matt LaFleur's offence.
The Packers remain heavily reliant on explosive passing plays from Jordan Love to wide receivers Christian Watson and Matthew Golden.
Love leads the NFL in deep pass attempts and possesses one of the strongest arms in football, but Green Bay's inability to establish a reliable rushing attack continues to place pressure on the passing game.
New England Patriots v Green Bay Packers Betting Tips
Best Bet - Patriots -3.5 @ 26/25
Alternative Bet - Jordan Love over 0.5 interceptions @ 4/6
Bet Builder - Patriots Moneyline, Drake Maye anytime touchdown & Matthew Golden longest reception over 23.5 yards @ 37/4
New England Patriots v Green Bay Packers Prediction
Best Bet: Patriots -3.5 @ 26/25
New England will look to exploit several match-up advantages that could decide this contest.
Although their defensive scheme has been uneven against vertical passing attacks, the Pats still rank among the NFL's best units when playing man coverage.
Christian Gonzalez has emerged as one of the league's premier shutdown cornerbacks, while Carlton Davis III has provided excellent support on the opposite side.
The biggest issue for Green Bay is their lack of rushing production, which has meant the Packers have been forced to rely heavily on Love creating big plays through the air.
While that approach can produce chunk plays, it also leads to inconsistency. Green Bay ranks 23rd for points per game because they have often had to settle for field goals when reaching the red zone.
Their offence becomes bogged down when explosive downfield throws are removed from the equation and that is exactly what the Patriots defence is designed to do.
Gonzalez has developed into one of the NFL's elite cover corners and should spend plenty of time shadowing Golden.
His shutdown ability can enable Vrabel to commit additional resources towards containing Watson and limiting Love's preferred deep passing concepts.
The Patriots are also generating pressure at an elite rate while, on the other side of the ball, Maye has excelled against the types of coverage structures Green Bay prefers to deploy.
Playing at Gillette Stadium, with momentum firmly on their side, New England look capable of winning by more than a field goal.
Alternative Bet: Jordan Love over 0.5 interceptions @ 4/6
As one of the NFL's most aggressive quarterbacks, Love frequently attempts deep throws and that approach inevitably creates turnover opportunities for opposing defences.
New England's secondary has the personnel to capitalise, with Gonzalez and Davis among the league’s premier conerback duos.
The Patriots have forced turnovers in four of their five victories this year and, given Green Bay seem unable to establish the run, Love is likely to attempt a high volume of passes once again.
The Packers quarterback has thrown six interceptions this season with opponents picking him off in five of Green Bay's last six games.
Against a Pats defence that disguises coverages effectively and thrives in obvious passing situations, Love throwing at least one interception looks a strong play.
New England Patriots v Green Bay Packers Bet Builder Tip
Patriots Moneyline
Drake Maye anytime touchdown
Matthew Golden longest reception over 23.5 yards
Pays 37/4
The Patriots have won four of their last five games and possess the defensive tools required to frustrate Green Bay's one-dimensional offence.
Maye has become an increasingly important runner near the goal line and scored the decisive touchdown during last week's victory over Miami.
His athleticism makes him a constant threat on designed quarterback runs and scrambles.
One of the league's premier big-play threats, Golden only needs New England’s coverage to break once in order to clear a modest longest reception line of 23.5, which he has done in three of his last four starts.
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Key Match Stats
The Patriots have won four of their last five games
New England are 4-1 this season when forcing a turnover
Jordan Love leads the league in deep pass attempts
Christian Watson has 708 receiving yards and six touchdowns
Matthew Golden has 619 receiving yards and four touchdowns
The Packers rank last in rushing yards per carry
Tactics, Form and Team News
The Patriots have ruled out wide receiver A.J. Brown and RB TreVeyon Henderson, while TE Hunter Henry is one of seven other players listed as questionable for the game.
Micah Parsons has been ruled for Sunday's game as Green Bay’s star edge rusher continues working toward a return from a serious knee injury.
The Packers ruled out offensive lineman Sean Rhyan with an ankle injury, forcing Green Bay to adjust its interior offensive line against a Patriots defence that has been effective against the run.
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
