Kansas City Chiefs v Houston Texans: Prediction, Tips and Odds

Kansas City Chiefs launch their playoff campaign at home to Houston Texans as they bid to win a third successive NFL Championship and Racing Post's Phil Agius has picked out his four best bets for Saturday's clash at Arrowhead Stadium.

The Chiefs achieved their goal in the first part of the 2024 NFL season by going 15-2 to clinch a ninth straight AFC West title and the first seed for the AFC playoffs.

That earned them a week off last week and home advantage as they host the Houston Texans this weekend before a potential blockbuster clash against either the Buffalo Bills or the Baltimore Ravens for the AFC crown.

All four division winners remain in play in the AFC, with AFC South champion Texans having comfortably accounted for the Chargers in Texas last week despite the LA team having had a superior record in the regular season.

The Texans departed at this stage of the playoffs last season with a tame 34-10 defeat in Baltimore and their head-to-head record against the Chiefs does not augur well, as the Missouri-based franchise have won the teams' last four meetings.

That run includes a playoff win over Houston in this round in January 2020, when the Chiefs ran out 51-31 winners at Arrowhead, while the most recent meeting was less than a month ago at the same venue as the Chiefs won 27-19 in Week 16.

Kansas City Chiefs v Houston Texans prop bets - tips and predictions

Kansas City Chiefs -8.5 - 10/11

The Chiefs were solid rather than spectacular for the majority of the regular season and rode their luck at times despite winning 15 of their first 16 games before fielding a weak line-up in Week 18 with the top seed in the AFC playoffs already secured.

Head coach Andy Reid now has a strong roster with mid-season additions playing alongside the fit-again players they were brought in to replace.

There is a suspicion that the Chiefs had a gear or two more to move through for much of the campaign, as they often did just enough to win and only three of their victories came by more than 10 points.

They secured wide-margin wins over the Browns and Steelers either side of their eight-point success against the Texans, though, and should put their best foot forward in the playoffs.

DeAndre Hopkins over 29.5 receiving yards - 10/11

DeAndre Hopkins has proved an excellent mid-season acquisition by the Chiefs.

And, while Xavier Worthy, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquise 'Hollywood' Brown are all available in what's now a crowded wide receiver room, the veteran's experience should prove invaluable for QB Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs.

The 32-year-old averaged 43.7 receiving yards in the regular season and will be keen to impress as he spent the first seven seasons of his career with the Texans, playing in six playoff games for them. 

He had four catches for 37 yards in the recent game against Houston and should be able to reach 30 again.

John Metchie III over 3.5 receptions - 20/21

The Texans no longer have the services of Tank Dell, who was their leading receiver in the regular season game against the Chiefs with six receptions for 98 yards. 

That's a big hole to fill and John Metchie III has picked up some of the slack. Metchie has had only 28 receptions all season, but 24 of those have come in his last eight games. 

He had five catches against the Ravens on Christmas Day and four in last week's win over the Chargers and could be busy again if the Chiefs concentrate their efforts on stopping top man Nico Collins.

Kansas City Chiefs v Houston Texans money line, spread, over/under

	Money Line	Spread	Over/Under
Chiefs	1/5	-8.5 - 10/11	Over 41.5 - 10/11
Texans	15/4	+8.5 - 10/11	Under 41.5 - 10/11

Under 41.5 total points - 10/11

The Chiefs' defence has powered much of their success over the last two seasons and they ranked fourth in the league in points allowed per game at 19.2.

The Texans' defence paved the way to victory in last week's Wild Card win over the Chargers with four interceptions of LA quarterback Justin Herbert, while the 46 points in their first meeting with the Chiefs was their highest game total since November.

With sub-zero temperatures expected in Missouri, a relatively low-scoring game is likely.

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.