Buffalo Bills v Denver Broncos: Prediction, Tips and Odds

The Buffalo Bills will be on familiar ground in more ways than one when they host the Denver Broncos in a Wild Card playoff matchup between the AFC’s No.2 and No.7 seeds.

The Bills have qualified for the postseason as the conference’s second seed for three of the past four years and made it through to the Divisional Round on each of the last four occasions.

The Broncos, however, are in the Wild Card round for the first time since the 2011 season and are set to experience their first playoff game since Super Bowl 50 - almost nine years ago.

Highmark Stadium has been a Buffalo stronghold for several years and the Bills were one of only two teams in the NFL to remain unbeaten at home this season.

So the Broncos, who overcame a 0-2 start to finish 10-7, and their rookie quarterback Bo Nix will face a tough time against a Bills team that rested their starters in last Sunday’s 23-16 loss to the New England Patriots.

Sean Payton’s men clinched their playoff berth with a dominant 38-0 victory over a Kansas City Chiefs team without quarterback Patrick Mahomes and several other starters.

But they face a stern test from Bills QB Josh Allen, who has been playing at an MVP-calibre level and leading one of the NFL's top offenses.

Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos prop bets - tips and predictions

Over 106.5 Denver Broncos rushing yards - 1/1

While the Broncos have shown resilience this season, the Bills' home dominance and playoff experience give them a significant edge. 

Buffalo's offence has been firing on all cylinders, and their 8-0 record at Highmark Stadium is hard to ignore.

Similarly, Denver's road record is concerning. The Broncos have lost four of their last five away games, including a 31-point loss to the Baltimore Ravens.

Denver are likely to come into the game with high energy and a strategic game plan to challenge the Bills' top-ranked defence.

Payton will look for his team to establish the run in the early exchanges because the Bills have had some issues against well-oiled rushing attacks this season.

The Ravens trampled over them for over 270 yards on the ground in Week 4 while the Miami Dolphins racked up 149 rushing yards in the second meeting between the two teams.

San Francisco gashed the Bills for over 150 rushing yards in Week 13 with Christian McCaffrey gaining 53 yards on just seven carries before getting injured.

And the Los Angeles Rams, who finished the regular season with the 24th-ranked rushing attack, had 137 yards on the ground a week later.

The Bills' lack of a big run-stopper in the middle of their defence could cost them in the postseason and the Broncos will attempt to exploit any weakness there.

Ten of Buffalo’s opponents gained over 107 yards rushing against them in the regular season and Denver, who racked up 158 yards on the ground against the Chiefs, can be the next.

Bo Nix - Over 0.5 interceptions - 20/29

Buffalo will go up against a rookie QB in the Wild Card round for the third time in four seasons.

The Bills won both of the previous games when facing New England’s Mac Jones and Miami’s Skylar Thompson with the rookies combining for three touchdowns and four interceptions.

Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott's overall track record against rookie QBs should spell trouble for the Broncos’ Nix.

The defensive mastermind has regularly confused newcomers to the league with his schemes with his Bills defense allowing only seven touchdowns, while picking off the rookie quarterbacks 17 times in 11 regular season games.

Nix, who has thrown half of his season total of interceptions in Denver’s last five games, may struggle to avoid a similar fate on Sunday.

Read more US sports betting tips and predictions on site.

Buffalo Bills v Denver Broncos money line, spread, over/under

	Money Line	Spread	Over/Under
BUF Bills	1/5	-8.5 - 10/11	Over 47.0 - 10/11
DEN Broncos	15/4	+8.5 - 10/11	Under 47.0 - 10/11

Over 47.0 points - 10/11

The Bills go into this as understandably strong favourites. They have beaten both the AFC and NFC’s No.1 seeds in the regular season and last tasted defeat on their home turf in last season’s Divisional Round to the Chiefs.

Buffalo gained some measure of revenge for that 27-24 loss when they beat Kansas City 30-21 at Highmark Stadium in November.

That was one of six Buffalo home games to feature more than 47 points which, in the circumstances, looks like a slightly conservative total for this clash.

These two teams are ranked first and second in the league for scoring defence with both yielding fewer than 19 points per game in the regular season.

But the Bills have been the NFL’s second most potent offence, scoring just under 31 points per game and more than 34 points in games at Highmark Stadium. 

Allen's ability to create big plays through the air and on the ground adds an unpredictable element that could lead to quick scores.

The Broncos have also heated up down the stretch, averaging more than 32.5 points per game over their last seven games.

The ability of Denver’s wide receivers Courtland Sutton and Marvin Mims Jr, who have combined for six touchdowns across their last two games, to get open has been a key factor in the Broncos’ late-season upturn.

The ‘win or go home’ atmosphere in the playoffs often leads to more aggressive play-calling and risk-taking, which can result in higher-scoring games.

For example, the Bills’ last five home playoff games have averaged 53 total points.

With the total set at 47.0, there's value in taking the over, especially considering the offensive talent on both sides and the potential for a back-and-forth contest.

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.