Next Prime Minister Odds: Sir Keir Starmer 1/50 after first YouGov MRP poll

Sir Keir Starmer is in from 1/12 to 1/50 to be the Prime Minister after the next general election, with a YouGov poll projecting Labour to win a 194-seat majority.

Next Prime Minister odds

In the most recent by-elections, the Wellingborough seat was retained by Conservative Peter Bone in 2019 with 62.2% of the vote – a majority of 35.7% (up from 23.4% in 2017), but an enormous swing of 57% saw Gen Kitchen become the constituency’s first Labour MP since 2001 under the premiership of Tony Blair.

The Kingswood by-election was more closely fought, but Damien Egan became the constituency’s first Labour MP since 2010, with a swing of 32.8%.

It was another chastening outcome for Rishi Sunak, whose Conservative party have now lost 10 out of 11 by-elections since the former Chancellor took office, losing five seats to the Labour Party and another seat to the Liberal Democrats.

And stood in the pouring rain outside 10 Downing Street, Rishi Sunak announced that he had met with the King to request the dissolution of parliament, calling a general election for July 4.

It's an electoral gamble that appears to have backfired with the first of YouGov's MRP projection showing Labour winning more seats than in the 1997 landslide.

Leader of the Opposition Starmer had already strengthened his own position with two more by-election wins, though faces frequent criticism about broken promises of his own, including his abandonment of pledges to scrap tuition fees, the two-child limit, and more recently the party's intention to invest £28bn a year on climate change, instead committing to around half of that.

Though Starmer said the party can't afford to be complacent on the back of their by-election wins, it looks increasingly likely that the Tories will be ousted after 14 years in charge - falling short of the 18 years of Margaret Thatcher and Sir John Major, but surpassing the 11 post-war years of Sir Winston Churchill, Anthony Eden, Harold Macmillan and Alex Douglas-Home.

Attentions will turn to not to whether the Labour Party will form the next government, but how big their majority will be. It will be a remarkable turnaround considering the election defeat of 2019 that left the Conservatives with a 162-seat majority, and it will be the biggest majority overturned since 1945. 

A Labour Majority is in to 1/16 from 2/7, while a Labour Minority is out to 14/1 from 13/5.

Government after next election odds

Liam Williams

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