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Next Prime Minister Odds: Sir Keir Starmer 1/12 to be next PM after Labour by-election wins

Sir Keir Starmer is in from 1/9 to 1/12 to be the Prime Minister after the next general election after two by-election wins in Kingswood and Wellingborough.

Next Prime Minister odds

Sir Keir Starmer to be Prime Minister after next general election1/12
Rishi Sunak to be Prime Minister after next general election6/1
David Cameron to be Prime Minister after next general election16/1

The Wellingborough seat was retained by Conservative Peter Bone in 2019 with 62.2% of the vote – a majority of 35.7% (up from 23.4% in 2017), but an enormous swing of 57% sees Gen Kitchen become the constituency’s first Labour MP since 2001 under the premiership of Tony Blair.

The Kingswood by-election was more closely fought, but Damien Egan became the constituency’s first Labour MP since 2010, with a swing of 32.8%.

It’s another chastening evening for Rishi Sunak, whose Conservative party have now lost 10 out of 11 by-elections since the former Chancellor took office, losing five seats to the Labour Party and another seat to the Liberal Democrats.

Former Prime Minister Harold Wilson famously said that ‘a week is a long time in politics’ and Sunak will be extremely keen to put the last seven days behind him. 

From last week’s Prime Minister’s Questions, when the Prime Minister was accused of making a transphobic remark, to the news that the UK had officially entered a recession, to losing two more by-elections, things have consistently gone from bad to worse.

There has long been speculation about when the next general election will be, and it may still be as far away as January 2025, with one theory that Sunak will be keen to give the economy as much time to recover as possible to strengthen the Conservatives’ position, though the Prime Minister suggested at the start of the year that he’s working towards a general election being held in the second half of 2024.

Leader of the Opposition Starmer looks to have strengthened his own position with two more by-election wins, though faces frequent criticism about broken promises of his own, including his abandonment of pledges to scrap tuition fees, the two-child limit, and more recently the party's intention to invest £28bn a year on climate change, instead committing to around half of that.

Though Starmer said the party can't afford to be complacent on the back of their by-election wins, it looks increasingly likely that the Tories will be ousted after 14 years in charge - falling short of the 18 years of Margaret Thatcher and Sir John Major, but surpassing the 11 post-war years of Sir Winston Churchill, Anthony Eden, Harold Macmillan and Alex Douglas-Home.

Attentions will turn to not to whether the Labour Party will form the next government, but how big their majority will be. It will be a remarkable turnaround considering the election defeat of 2019 that left the Conservatives with a 162-seat majority, and it will be the biggest majority overturned since 1945. 

A Labour Majority is in to 1/6 from 2/7, while a Labour Minority is out to 11/2 from 13/5

Government after next election odds

Labour Majority after next general election1/6
Labour Minority after next general election11/2
Labour/Lib Dem Coalition after next general election10/1
Conservative Minority after next general election10/1
Conservative Majority after next general election12/1

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