With the next UK general election less than 18 months away, we’ve priced up Sir Keir Starmer at 1/8 to be the next Prime Minister.
|Sir Keir Starmer to be Prime Minister after next general election||1/8|
|Rishi Sunak to be Prime Minister after next general election||9/2|
|Boris Johnson to be Prime Minister after next general election||33/1|
|Penny Mordaunt to be Prime Minister after next general election||33/1|
|Andy Burnham to be Prime Minister after next general election||50/1|
|Labour Majority after next general election||4/9|
|Labour Minority after next general election||3/1|
|Conservative Minority after next general election||5/1|
|Conservative Majority after next general election||8/1|
|Labour/Lib Dem Coalition after next general election||8/1|
A YouGov poll in June found that 31% of respondees felt there should be a general election held before the end of the year, while 16% called for an election in spring 2024, compared to just 6% favouring the latest possible election in January 2025.
Although Labour have held a resounding lead in the polls since the mini-budget which led to the resignations of Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng and former Prime Minister Liz Truss, the lead has dropped from 37 points to 19 points.
Labour are currently polling at 45%, 13 points better than Starmer himself at 32%, though the picture is certainly a lot brighter for the Labour leader than the Prime Minister.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s approval rating is currently lower than Boris Johnson’s following his resignation in 2022.
The next general election is due by January 2025.
While it would take a momentous shift in the polls to deny Labour being the biggest party after the next election, they may not clear the 325 seats to form a majority government, though a Labour Majority is still favourite at 4/9 with a Labour Minority 3/1.