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Politics Odds: Nigel Farage 20/1 to be next Conservative leader

After the Cabinet reshuffle which saw David Cameron return to frontline politics as Foreign Secretary, we’ve priced up the former Prime Minster at 8/1 to be the next Conservative leader.

Politics Odds

The reshuffle also saw former Home Secretary Suella Braverman sacked for a second time after referring to pro-Palestine marches as ‘hate marches’ and later writing an opinion piece for The Times which suggested that the police ‘play favourites’ regarding protestors.

It has been suggested that Braverman’s actions further enamoured her to the right of the party, making her one of the favourites to succeed Rishi Sunak as the next Conservative leader.

David Cameron has entered the betting at 8/1 following his appointment as Foreign Secretary, despite not being an MP, though a YouGov poll revealed that 47% of Britons thought Cameron was a bad Prime Minister, compared to 22% who said he was a good Prime Minister.

Next Conservative leader odds

  • Kemi Badenoch – 11/4
  • James Cleverly – 4/1
  • Penny Mordaunt – 5/1
  • Suella Braverman – 5/1
  • David Cameron – 8/1
  • David Frost – 20/1
  • Steve Barclay – 20/1
  • Nigel Farage – 20/1

Next Prime Minister odds

After Labour's victories in the Tamworth and Mid-Bedfordshire by-elections, Sir Kier Starmer is in from 1/7 to 1/9 to be the next Prime Minister.

Sir Keir Starmer to be Prime Minister after next general election1/9
Rishi Sunak to be Prime Minister after next general election5/1
Nigel Farage to be Prime Minister after next general election20/1
David Cameron to be Prime Minister after next general election20/1
Boris Johnson to be Prime Minister after next general election33/1
Penny Mordaunt to be Prime Minister after next general election33/1
Andy Burnham to be Prime Minister after next general election50/1

Government after next general election odds

Labour Majority after next general election2/7
Labour Minority after next general election13/5
Conservative Minority after next general election6/1
Conservative Majority after next general election9/1
Labour/Lib Dem Coalition after next general election13/2

A YouGov poll in June found that 31% of respondees felt there should be a general election held before the end of the year, while 16% called for an election in spring 2024, compared to just 6% favouring the latest possible election in January 2025.

Although Labour have held a resounding lead in the polls since the mini-budget which led to the resignations of Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng and former Prime Minister Liz Truss, the lead has dropped from 37 points to 18 points.

Labour are currently polling at 47%, 15 points better than Starmer himself at 32%, though the picture is certainly a lot brighter for the Labour leader than the Prime Minister.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s approval rating is currently lower than Boris Johnson’s following his resignation in 2022 and faces a monumental battle to remain in power after the next general election.

Of the nine by-elections held under Sunak's premiership, the Tories have lost three seats to Labour and one to the Liberal Democrats, all of which were considered safe seats - Mid Bedfordshire has been Tory for nearly 100 years. Three were held by Labour and one was held in Johnson's former seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip.

A Labour majority is now 2/7, a Labour minority is 13/5 and a Conservative minority is 6/1

Amidst continued difficulties for the Conservative Party, former UKIP leader and I'm A Celebrity contestant Nigel Farage has claimed he'll be leading the Tories by 2026 and is 20/1 to be the next Conservative leader.

When is the next general election?

The next general election is due by January 2025 but may be called sooner. If a general election isn't called before 17th December 2024 - exactly five years since parliament first met after the previous general election - parliament will be automatically dissolved with an election being held 25 working days later.

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