Ducati struck back after four Aprilia wins in the first five MotoGP races of the season when Fabio Di Giannantonio claimed his first victory of the season in Barcelona two weeks ago, and another thrilling race is expected in Italy this weekend.
There are more changes to the field this time with Alex Marquez and Johann Zarco both ruled out after suffering injuries when they crashed in the last race, but world champion Marc Marquez is hoping to return after missing the last two rounds following surgery.
Aprilia's Marco Bezzecchi still leads the MotoGP standings by 15 points, but his fourth place in Barcelona was the first time he had finished outside the top two in a grand prix this season.
His team-mate, Jorge Martin, is second, with Di Giannantonio up to third after his first win of the season.
MotoGP Italy Tips Summary
Best Bet - Fabio Di Giannantonio to win @ 4/1
Alternative Bet - Francesco Bagnaia each-way @ 8/1
Alternative Bet - Raul Fernandez each-way @ 33/1
MotoGP Italy Prediction
Best Bet: Fabio Di Giannantonio to win @ 4/1
Di Giannantonio showcased his toughness with his Barcelona victory, which was achieved after he had suffered an arm injury in the aftermath of the serious crash involving Alex Marquez and Pedro Acosta which caused the race to be red-flagged.
The rider, nicknamed Diggia, shrugged off the pain to record his first win of the season, which had looked to be coming after he had two thirds and two fourths in the previous four rounds.
The Roman rider would love to add a home victory this time and he has fond memories of the track, having taken the first pole position of his career there in 2022 and finished on the podium behind the Marquez brothers last season.
With Alex Marquez ruled out this year and Marc Marquez unlikely to be at full fitness after missing the last two rounds following a heavy crash in Jerez, Di Giannantonio has a great chance to secure back-to-back MotoGP wins.
Alternative Bet: Francesco Bagnaia each-way @ 8/1
Francesco Bagnaia failed to take advantage of his teammate Marc Marquez's absence over the last two races, but his brief time as the factory team's chief hope ended with a podium finish in Catalunya and he can build on that at a track he loves.
The Italian won three consecutive races at Mugello between 2022 and 2024 and should be looking for another podium finish after his best performance of the year last time out.
Bagnaia has been second in three sprint races this season and is at least much happier with his machine this season than he was last year, when his run of home successes ended with a fourth-place finish.
Alternative Bet: Raul Fernandez each-way @ 33/1
For a bigger-priced bet in Sunday's race, Raul Fernandez is an interesting option.
The Trackhouse Aprilia rider had a tough time in the main race in Barcelona, when he collided with the factory team's Martin, but he had finished fourth in the sprint and could be in contention for the podium again.
Fernandez, who won his first MotoGP race in Australia near the end of last season, opened this campaign with third place in Thailand and he was the second Aprilia home in Italy last season, finishing seventh after starting 11th.
He took pole and finished second, just 0.014 seconds behind, at the track in Moto2 in 2021, so he could be in for another strong weekend.
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Key Race Stats
Marco Bezzecchi has gone three races without a victory after winning the first three rounds
Seven-time world champion Marc Marquez has won this race only twice in his career
Francesco Bagnaia won this race in 2022, 2023 and 2024
Ducati have won seven of the last eight races at Mugello
Four of the top six riders in the Championship ride Aprilias
The same rider has won the sprint race and the grand prix at only one of the first six races
Read more Moto GP betting tips and predictions on site.
This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
