Marc Marquez has closed in on Jorge Martin at the top of the MotoGP Championship and the Spanish star’s sprint success on Saturday has him eyeing the summit.
The 33-year-old is the clear pick of the MotoGP grid and there looks little in the way of opposition at the Motegi Circuit.
Marquez is 8/15 to win at Japan Moto GP, but that offer may still hold some value in a race the Spaniard is expected to dominate.
MotoGP Japan Tips Summary
Best Bet - Marc Marquez to win MotoGP Japan @ 8/15
Alternative Bet - Marco Bezzecchi each-way @ 7/1
MotoGP Japan Prediction
Best Bet: Marc Marquez to win MotoGP Japan @ 8/15
Marc Marquez dominated Saturday’s sprint race at the MotoGP Japan and it is no surprise that the Spanish star is the red-hot 8/15 favourite for Sunday’s main race.
Championship rival Jorge Martin surrendered the lead to Marquez on the first bend of the sprint contest, while there was drama in behind.
Alex Marquez collided with the rear of Pedro Acosta at turn three, and alongside Fabio di Giannantonio, that trio crashed out of the race.
The Gresini rider has been handed a double long-lap penalty for causing the pile up in the sprint and that’s likely to end his chances of a podium in Japan.
Martin and Enea Bastianini were both demoted one position for exceeding track limits on the final lap, and with Marco Bezzecchi’s gamble on a medium rear tyre failing to pay off, Marc Marquez’s masterclass was too much for the field to handle.
The Spaniard is a very clear favourite based on sprint race pace and the issues of his rivals, with the only consideration against Marquez at the Motegi Circuit, tyre set-up.
It appeared that Ducati’s soft rear slicks appeared to be delaminating in the centre of the tyre in the sprint, but Marquez is a master of kidology and the world champion looked to be toying with his rivals.
The 33-year-old said: “It was time to go” when he noticed Martin was just 0.8s behind his Ducati in the sprint and he pulled 2.466s clear of the Madrid man come the chequered flag.
That performance indicated that the 33-year-old was clear of his rivals and also there is likely to be more to come over the extended distance of the main race.
Alternative Bet: Marco Bezzecchi each-way @ 7/1
If anyone can trouble Marquez, it could be Marco Bezzecchi.
The Aprilia Racing rider looks to have plenty to do to topple the Spaniard, but the Italian may be better placed to challenge ahead of Martin and Pedro Acosta.
Bezzecchi has no explanation for his lack of pace on the medium rear in the sprint race, but the 27-year-old was quick in free practice two.
Track temperatures of 32 degrees Celsius on Saturday morning were not widely different from the 38 in the sprint, but all tyres have a peak operating window and it may be that Bezzecchi’s had fallen off.
It will be the same for all riders in Sunday’s race and a case of who is quickest on a used medium tyre.
That may well bring Bezzecchi into the picture, and with three places on offer in the each-way market, the Italian rates a bet.
Key Race Stats
- Jorge Martin tops the standings with 313 points despite winning only once this season
- Marc Marquez is seven points adrift in second but has won five races this season
- Marc Bezzecchi has won four times this season as well as achieving the most podium finishes (9)
- Marquez won the Sprint race, finishing 2.754 seconds clear of Diogo Moreira
- The Sprint winner at the MotoGP Japan has gone on to win the main race in each of the last three seasons - Jorge Martin in 2023 and Francesco Bagnaia in both 2024 and 2025
- A Ducati rider has won the last four MotoGP Japan races with Marc Marquez in 2019 for Honda the last time another manufacturer triumphed
- Jorge Martin set a new lap record when claiming pole position for Sunday's race, with Marc Marquez and Pedro Acosta also on front row
Read more MotoGP betting tips and predictions on site.
This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
