Italian MotoGP: Prediction, Tips and Odds

World champion Francesco Bagnaia claimed his third win of the season in the Catalan Grand Prix last week and is now out to secure a third successive victory in the Italian Grand Prix at Mugello on Sunday.

Italian MotoGP betting tips and predictions

Francesco Bagnaia - 5/4

Bagnaia's defence of his MotoGP championship has not gone entirely smoothly this season but he has won the first, fourth and sixth races of the year, exactly as he did in 2023.

Championship leader Jorge Martin has only two grand prix wins so far but his consistency and superior record in the sprint races in particular have left him with a handy 39-point advantage at the top of the standings.

It's no surprise that Bagnaia is favourite for this week's Italian Grand Prix, as Pecco has won his home race in each of the last two seasons and should be hard to beat again.

Both riders are clearly on the right brand of machinery this week as Ducati have dominated at Mugello. Last year Ducati filled five of the top seven places in qualifying, locked out the top five positions in the sprint race and claimed the leading four positions in the race, with Bagnaia leading home Martin, Johann Zarco and Luca Marini.

A year earlier it had been a similar story with Ducatis taking the first first places in qualifying (with Fabio Di Giannantonio on pole) and filling four of the first six spots in the race.

On the leading bike and racing at a track he loves, Bagnaia should be the man to beat again this weekend.

Along with Martin, Bagnaia will also be keeping a close eye on six-time champion Marc Marquez, who moved up to third in the championship with his third successive podium of the season in Barcelona. 

The Spanish star achieved that from 14th on the grid, having qualified only 13th in the previous race. If he can resolve his issues with one-lap pace to secure a decent starting position he could be a threat at every event for the rest of the season.

More information about the Italian MotoGP Grand Prix including the times, schedule, how to watch and more.

Pedro Acosta each-way - 10/1

Pedro Acosta has shown he deserves his place at MotoGP's top table in his rookie season and should again be capable of challenging for the podium this week.

The KTM rider qualified fifth in Barcelona and took a podium finish in the sprint race. He was then battling in the leading group on Sunday when falling, although he was able to remount and still finish in the points in 13th.

The young Spaniard, now 20, has the look of a future world champion and is sixth in the standings for the GasGas Tech 3 team.

The Moto2 champion has won the Mugello race in the junior category in each of the last two seasons, coming home six seconds ahead of the field after being four seconds clear in 2022 and merits an each-way interest at double-figure odds.

Brad Binder each-way - 33/1

For an outside bet in Italy, consider South African speedster Brad Binder. The aggressive overtaker has a solid record at the track having won there in Moto3 in 2016 and finished fifth, seventh and fifth in the last three seasons.

After finishing second and fourth in the opening two races this season, Binder has fallen back with placings between sixth and ninth in the last four races but he showed in Barcelona last week that he is still capable of fighting at the front.

He was leading the sprint race when crashing out in Catalunya and showed he had learned his lesson the next day when easing off after an early scare to bank the points for eighth place. 

If he can avoid a repeat of the front-tyre issues that bothered him in Spain, Binder could give bettors a better run than odds of 33/1 indicate.

MotoGP Catalunya odds

• Francesco Bagnaia - 5/4
• Jorge Martin - 3/1
• Marc Marquez -10/3
• Pedro Acosta - 10/1
• Enea Bastianini - 18/1
• Maverick Vinales - 25/1
• Marco Bezzecchi - 28/1
• Aleix Espargaro - 28/1
• Alex Marquez - 28/1
• Brad Binder - 33/1
• Jack Miller - 33/1

View the full market and more odds for the Italian MotoGP on site

This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.