MotoGP Barcelona Grand Prix: Prediction, Tips and Odds

A fascinating and, at times, unpredictable MotoGP season has fittingly gone down to the wire as defending champion Francesco Bagnaia trails title-chase leader Jorge Martin by 24 points.

The finale has been moved from its usual home of Valencia due to the catastrophic floods in that area, and the switch to Barcelona adds an extra layer of jeopardy for all the riders.

The track features a low-grip surface at the best of times, and with the temperature expected to be up to 10C lower than when the series visited for the Catalan Grand Prix at the end of May, the circuit is set to be even more slippery and challenging. 

MotoGP Barcelona Grand Prix betting tips and predictions

Francisco Bagnaia to win - 10/11

In order for Bagnaia to be crowned MotoGP world champion for a third year in a row, he must outscore Martin by 24 points or more. If the pair finish level, the Italian would retain the title as he has taken 10 grand prix wins to Martin's three.

But therein lies the issue. Satellite Ducati rider Martin has been the model of consistency this season, and with 37 points on offer across the sprint and main race, the Spaniard needs only to collect 14 points across the two races even if Bagnaia wins both.

Martin has failed to reach that tally only three times in 19 MotoGP weekends this year, so quotes of 1/10 for last year's championship runner-up to turn the tables on Bagnaia are understandable.

Bagnaia's best chance is to get his head down, win the races and worry about what Martin has done later.

He's certainly capable of doing that - as well as his 10 grand prix victories in 2024, including at the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya in May - the factory Ducati star has taken four sprint wins. And on all of those four occasions, he went on to triumph in the main race as well.

Bagnaia will have to be wary of the tricky conditions. He crashed out of a comfortable lead at the track in the sprint in May, but showed he had learned his lesson by holding off Martin to win the grand prix, and although his championship might be slipping away, the Italian can end his reign with a victory.

Aleix Espargaro each-way - 9/1

At a special press conference on the Friday of the Catalan Grand Prix weekend, local hero Aleix Espargaro announced that 2024 would be his final season in MotoGP after 15 years in the sport.

Given the circumstances of the venue switch, this race, officially titled the Solidarity Grand Prix of Barcelona, will be an emotional one for all the Spanish riders, but Espargaro will be grateful to end his career in front of his local fans.

After making his announcement in May, Espargaro put the occasion behind him to qualify on pole position - his first of two this season - before winning the sprint race.

He was unable to repeat the trick in the grand prix, but missed out on the podium by barely a bike's length as he chased home third-placed Marc Marquez.

The Montmelo track hasn't always been the kindest to Espargaro, but he took the most recent of his three grand prix wins there last year having also won the sprint. 

The Aprilia rider's form has gone downhill in the second half of the season, but he could be worth backing for a big finish in what could turn out to be an eventful race.

Pedro Acosta each-way - 28/1

Spanish youngster Pedro Acosta arrived in MotoGP this year with a lofty reputation, and it's fair to say he has lived up to it.

The KTM rider made an immediate impression, setting the fastest lap at the season-opener in Qatar before finishing on the podium at each of the next two grands prix.

He has added two more podiums during the season, including a third-place finish in Thailand two races ago, as well as four sprint podiums, including in the Catalan Grand Prix.

He still has plenty to learn, as he showed when crashing out of the lead of both races in Japan, but he has been consistent enough to sit fifth in the standings, ahead of both KTM factory riders.

MotoGP Barcelona Grand Prix odds

This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.