MotoGP Italian Grand Prix Tips and Predictions

Marc Marquez led every session of the last round of the MotoGP world championship as well as winning the Aragon Grand Prix and now the Spanish star is looking to improve his record at Mugello, where he has not won since 2014.

Marquez leads the championship by 32 points from his brother Alex, with his Ducato teammate Francesco Bagnaia now 93 points off the lead in third place.

The Italian has been the man to beat in his home race for the last three years, though, and would love to be able to extend that sequence as he bids to get back in the title battle.

Italian motorcycle Grand Prix Tips Summary

Market	Tip	Odds
Race Winner	Marc Marquez	1/2
Best Bet	Francesco Bagnaia	11/4
Alternative Bet	Maverick Vinales each-way	66/1

Key Race Stats

• Marc Marquez has won half of the eight races this season

• Four riders (Bagnaia, Alex Marquez, Zarco, Bezzecchi) have one win each

• Francesco Bagnaia has won at Mugello in each of the last three seasons

• Marc Marquez's only Italian GP win came in 2014

• Franco Morbidelli has finished in the top five at six of this season's eight races

Italian motorcycle Grand Prix Prediction

Best Bet: Francesco Bagnaia to win @ 11/4

Marc Marquez dominated the last round of the Moto GP world championship, taking pole, the sprint-race victory and the grand prix win, even though his brother Alex was a close second in both races.

The Spaniard is the most likely winner at every track he visits this season, but there are spots when it can be worth opposing him - and his odds-on price is not great value for a rider who has won only four of this season's eight grands prix.

Mugello has never been a happy hunting ground for Marquez, whose only premier class success at the track came for Honda in 2014.

Marquez had Moto2 and Moto3 wins at the track, so it's not as if he can't perform at the circuit, but his record of success in the Italian round is way below what the six-time world champion has achieved at most other venues.

The championship leader was second in the sprint race and fourth in the main event last year, but he was only a couple of seconds behind winner Bagnaia despite riding an older model of the Ducati.

This time he and Bagnaia have the same machinery and Marquez has made much better use of it to this point, but the Italian rider believes he has made a breakthrough in a difficult season by changing to a heavier set of brake discs, which has given him a better balanced bike.

Given his record at the track and the support of a home crowd, this is one of the few rounds in which Bagnaia may rate a decent bet to get the better of the rampant Marquez.

Phil Agius explains:

If Pecco Bagnaia is going to fight back in his battle with Marc Marquez then his home race at Mugello, where he has won in each of the last three seasons, looks a likely venue for the turnaround to begin.

Alternative Bet: Maverick Vinales each-way @ 66/1

Maverick Vinales put together a couple of promising results when finishing fourth and fifth at Jerez and Le Mans, but he took a step back when qualifying poorly at Silverstone and finishing 11th and crashing in Aragon.

The Spaniard topped the times in the post-race test at Aragon, though, thanks to some aerodynamic developments and he could be back in the leading pack for the Mugello round.

Vinales' best MotoGP result at this circuit was second in 2017 but with only Bagnaia, Marc Marquez and Fabio Quartararo in the current field being former course winners, that's one of the better records on the grid.

Phil Agius adds:

Maverick Vinales has had good weekends and bad weekends so far this season but the KTM rider should arrive in Italy with renewed confidence after his excellent test performance and he could outperform his odds at Mugello.

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.