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MotoGP Portuguese Grand Prix: Prediction, Tips and Odds

The 2024 MotoGP season began with plenty of thrills and spills at the Qatar Grand Prix and, after a two-week break, the second race takes place in Portugal.

The first race of the season was won by defending champion Francesco 'Pecco' Bagnaia after Jorge Martin had taken the opening sprint race.

Both riders will be hoping Ducati's strong start to the season continues at Portimao, but there were strong first impressions elsewhere on the grid.

Brad Binder finished second in both races for KTM, Marc Marquez looked good on his first ride for Ducati and rookie Pedro Acosta impressed in his first race in the top division.

Portuguese Grand Prix

Portuguese MotoGP Tips

Francesco Bagnaia @ 5/4
Brad Binder each-way @
Aleix Espargaro each-way @

Setting the scene…

The first MotoGP weekend of the season suggested there is a great season ahead.

Francesco Bagnaia leads the standings with 31 points after his victory in Qatar, but Brad Binder is just two points behind after finishing second in both races, with sprint race winner Jorge Martin third on 28 points.

Learn more about the Portuguese MotoGP on site, including the times, schedule, how to watch, and weather forecast

Francesco Bagnaia @ 5/4

Francesco Bagnaia continues to set the standard in MotoGP and the two-time world champion has already claimed the lead in the 2024 title race. 

He finished only fourth in the opening sprint race of the season, but continued to improve throughout the weekend in Qatar and won from fifth on the grid, coming home just 1.329 seconds ahead of Brad Binder, with Jorge Martin close behind in third.

Bagnaia looks to be the best rider on the best bike after Ducati filled six of the top seven positions in Qatar and there's no reason to believe he will be beaten by anyone on the same machinery this time either.

Martin should be right there again, but has not been totally happy with his bike so far and has a poor record in this event too. 

Martin has yet to finish in Portugal, failing to start the 2021 race after fracturing a hand and a foot in a practice crash and retiring from the event in each of the last two seasons. 

Last year he was second in the sprint race, but crashed out after starting third on the grid.

The signs are there that six-time world champion Marc Marquez is going to make a success of his move to Ducati with the Gresini Racing team, but he's not quite on Bagnaia's level yet and this is not one of his favourite circuits either. 

Brad Binder each-way @ 15/2

Brad Binder's pair of podium finishes in Qatar was one of the most notable performances of the opening weekend and he could show up well in Portugal too.

The KTM rider was the only man really able to mix it with the Ducatis and he has shown he can race well at this track.

The South African was fifth in the Algarve in 2021 after qualifying only 15th and while he crashed out of the 2022 race in Portugal, he was able to climb through the field again last year, finishing sixth after qualifying 15th.

That race was the opening round of last year's championship and Binder's bike improved greatly over the course of the season as he took fourth in the championship.

The potential is there for him to make the podium again if his machinery is competitive.

Aleix Espargaro each-way @ 18/1

Spain's Aleix Espargaro is an outsider to watch this week. The Aprilia rider was second in qualifying in the first round and converted that into a sprint race runner-up finish.

He lost ground early in the main race but still finished eighth, which made him the best non-Ducati rider other than Binder.

The 34-year-old has scored all three of his race wins in the last two seasons, with two coming last year, and has finished in the top 10 at Portimao in each of the last four years, including a third place in 2022.

His Aprilia seems to have some potential this season, while Japanese manufacturers Yamaha and Honda are struggling and Espargaro looks set for another solid weekend.

View the full market and more odds for the Portuguese MotoGP on site

This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.

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