Dricus du Plessis v Israel Adesanya: Prediction, Tips and Odds

Israel Adesanya makes a bid to become a three-time middleweight UFC champion when he faces Dricus du Plessis at UFC 305 in Perth.

The pair have a long-standing rivalry based around their African heritage, while regional bragging rights are also at stake when Australian Steve Ercgeg faces New Zealand’s Kai Kara-France in the co-main event.

Dricus du Plessis v Israel Adesanya betting tips and predictions

Fight to Go The Distance - No - 10/13

Both Dricus du Plessis and Israel Adesanya have high-level finishing capabilities.

Du Plessis is 7-0 in the UFC with four wins by KO/TKO and one by submission.

The 30-year-old ripped through the likes of Darren Till, Derek Brunson and Robert Whittaker on his way to a title shot, where he won gold by pushing the pace to secure a split decision win over Sean Strickland in January.

The South African is a come forward fighter with a high output; in the head-to-head stats he outlands Adesanya in significant strikes per minute by 40%.

Du Plessis has only been finished once by strikes in his professional career, but the stats show he does absorb 35% more significant strikers per minute than his opponent here.

This may prove costly against Adesanya, who is one of the most creative strikers in the UFC, with five finishes from his 13 wins.

As champion he has five wins by decision, however, the last time we saw him return to challenger status was in his rematch with Alex Pereira last April, where he KO’d the feared Brazilian with a picture-perfect counter right hand.

Over 3.5 rounds - 4/6

Both are elite level championship fighters used to the pressure cooker of the big occasion, so are unlikely to crack early.

Du Plessis only has one main event in the UFC so far, when winning the title at UFC 297, but has been a champion in every organisation he has fought in, including KSW and was a two-weight belt holder in EFC.

The South African had a nose operation last year to correct a breathing issue which made many question his cardio, but with only two defeats from a 23-fight professional career he has shown he can usually outlast his opponents.

Including when winning the vacant interim UFC middleweight title in 2019 Adesanya has fought in 11 consecutive title fights, winning eight and losing three.

Only two of those fights have gone under 3.5 rounds, both second round finishes of Robert Whittaker and Paulo Costa.

Dricus Du Plessis by KO, TKO, DQ or decision - 29/20

The head-to-head odds show how close of a match-up this is.

At 36 years old Adesanya has the experience and ability to be able to win back the belt but does he have the right motivation?

He has promised to be more aggressive as he looks to cement his legacy, however Du Plessis's unrelenting style will be the ultimate test of his will.

At 30 years of age and as a new champion in the UFC, Du Plessis is carrying huge momentum and confidence into this one.

The South African will not be deterred by heading to Perth for this fight and has been promised a main event in his homeland should he retain the title.

Adesanya has never been submitted in the UFC, including when moving up to unsuccessfully challenge wrestling heavy Jan Błachowicz for the light heavyweight title.

Expect Du Plessis to be looking to land big, which could score him a knockout win if Adesanya is not at his best.

However, if we do see the judges’ scorecards, his pace could see him get the nod from the judges just like when he won the title against Strickland.

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Dricus du Plessis v Israel Adesanya odds

Dricus Du Plessis - 1/1
Israel Adesanya - 4/5

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.