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Mexico Open tips, predictions and odds

The 64th edition of the Mexico Open tees off at Greg Norman’s Signature Course at Vidanta Vallarta, and the PGA TOUR's Mike Glasscott has three bets to follow for the week.

Mexico Open tips

To Win – Thomas Detry (25/1)
Top 10 – Cameron Champ (12/5)
Top 20 – Patton Kizzire (4/1)

Vidanta Vallarta course guide

The Australian’s coastal design, located just off the Pacific Ocean, opened in 2015. Playing 7,456 yards to Par 71, the track features tee-to-green Platinum Paspalum.

Previously contested in the last week of April and the first week of May, the 2024 edition takes up a new position on the calendar in late February.

To mitigate scoring, the rough has increased to 2.5 inches, up from 1.5 inches from the first two editions.

The resort course provides massive landing areas off the fairway to account for everyday players and the ocean breezes off the Pacific Ocean.

The Paspalum putting surfaces, 7,000 square feet on average, will be prepped to run at just 11 feet, down from 12 feet last year.

Errant tee balls and approaches will have to steer clear of over 100 bunkers and water hazards found on 12 of the 18 holes.

One of the biggest ballparks on TOUR, Vidanta Vallarta will have five Par-3 holes and four Par-5 holes.

Mexico Open at Vidanta preview

The eighth event of the 2024 PGA TOUR season will be the first of two in Mexico this year. El Cardonal in Los Cabos will return in the fall to host for the second time.

The combination of a Greg Norman track and Mexico was in play at Mayakoba on the Yucatan Peninsula from 2007 through 2022.

Paspalum is a common playing surface in the resorts of the Caribbean and Mexico. PGA TOUR events played recently on Paspalum include El Cardonal, Puerto Rico Open, Corales Punta Cana, and Mayakoba. Korn Ferry Tour players have experienced this surface in two events in the Bahamas.

A field of 132, down from previous years due to the early season start and reduced February daylight, will be cut to the top 65 and ties after two rounds.

Defending champion Tony Finau highlights a field of just four players in the top 50 of the Official World Golf Ranking. At No. 24, he is the highest-ranked player teeing it up this week.

Set during his victory last year, Tony Finau owns the course record on 24-under. The course record of 61, set by Jon Rahm (not entered), was posted in Round 3 of 2023. The cut in the first two editions was 2-under par.

Top of the Board

Nobody in the field this week has bested Tony Finau (8/1) at Vidanta Vallarta. Boasting an aggregate total of 40-under over eight rounds, the only box left to check would be defending his crown. Signing for T6 at the massive Torrey Pines (South Course) for his best result of the season, the big hitter enjoys the big ballparks.

First or second in three of his last seven worldwide, Nicolai Hojgaard (16/1) will look to add to that total this week. Making his second start on the Pacific coast, the Dane ran second on Paspalum last March in the Dominican Republic. Cashing second at Torrey Pines reinforces his skill set on a big track. T33 on debut in 2023.

Stephan Jaeger (22/1) continues the trend of players at the top of the bet365 board who excelled at Torrey Pines in January. Leading after 36 and 54 holes, the German settled for third place after closing with 72. The third-place payday was his best on TOUR. Returning to Mexico, he’s cashed T18 and T15 in his two visits.

Emiliano Grillo (25/1) has cashed in his first six events of 2024. Highlighted by T7 at Waialae, the Argentine has picked up five top-10 paydays worldwide since winning at Colonial last May. Oh, and he was T20 at Torrey Pines.

Flashing with T9 at The American Express and T17 at TPC Scottsdale, not many drive it better than Keith Mitchell (25/1) regardless of the field. Playing Mayakoba five times, he never finished better than T56. Careful.

Taylor Pendrith (25/1) played five events in the FedExCup Fall and registered three T15 or better paydays, including T3 and T8. In two starts in 2024, he’s cashed T9 (Torrey Pines!!) and T10 with MC sandwiched between. Big power off the tee is the foundation.

After missing the cut in his first try of 2024, Thomas Detry (25/1) rattled off T20 (Torrey Pines!!), T4, and T28 before not qualifying for last week. The Belgian cashed T8 and T15 in back-to-back years at Punta Cana and hit the top 25 in his final two visits to Mayakoba.

Winning four weeks ago in the UAE in his last outing, Thorbjorn Olesen (30/1) continues his run of fantastic play. Cashing 26th or better in his last eight starts, his annual hot starts to the beginning of the calendar year continue.

Players to consider for Top 10, Top 20, or Top 40 action:

The last time the TOUR stopped in Mexico and played on Paspalum, Erik van Rooyen (33/1) posted three rounds of 64-66-63 to close at El Cardonal and win by two shots. Missing the cut in Phoenix was his first weekend off in 12 starts.

Doug Ghim (45/1) rolls in after cashing T13 (Torrey Pines!!) and T12 in Phoenix. Keep an eye on this ball-striker.

Maverick McNealy (50/1) popped with a season-best T6 at WM Phoenix open after a disappointing T39 in his boyhood backyard at Pebble Beach.

Cameron Champ (55/1) joins Finau, Brandon Wu (40/1), and Patrick Rodgers (33/1) as the only players to hit the top 10 in the first two editions.

Andrew Novak (110/1) grinds his way through big, windy, courses and isn’t bothered by Paspalum.

A winner at Mayakoba, Patton Kizzire (125/1) joins Finau and Charley Hoffman (70/1) as the only players this week to win on a Norman design in Mexico.

With wins at the Puerto Rico Open, Mazatlán Open, and El Bosque Mexico Championship, Martin Trainer (200/1) deserves a punt. Cashing T11 on debut here in 2022, he returns after T15 in Los Cabos last fall. Paspalum specialist and long shot.


Finau won his first TOUR event on Paspalum in Puerto Rico in 2015.

Players with big Ball-Striking numbers at the end of the week will litter the top 10.

The two winners were in the top two in Bogey Avoidance.

Find those who can dial in approach shots, proximity from the Fairway ranked dead last on TOUR in the first two editions. Getting it close isn’t easy.

The resort course will require scoring again this week. The top 29 players posted 10 under or better. There were just five rounds above par.

Mexico Open tips

To Win – Thomas Detry (25/1)
Top 10 – Cameron Champ (12/5)
Top 20 – Patton Kizzire (4/1)

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