Manchester City v Aston Villa: Prediction, Tips and Odds

Sunday’s goalless draw with Arsenal has given Liverpool the initiative in the Premier League title race and it is imperative that Manchester City regain the winning formula at home to Aston Villa.

That stalemate with the Gunners leaves City three points behind leaders Liverpool with nine games to play and, given their much inferior goal difference, another setback would prove almost catastrophic to their title aspirations.

However, this is also an important fixture for fourth-placed Villa, who went into these midweek fixtures three points clear of Tottenham in the quest for Champions League football.

The Villans returned to winning ways with Saturday's 2-0 victory over Wolves and they will be buoyed by the fact that they triumphed 1-0 when hosting City in December.

City have yet to beat a top-four rival in five attempts this season but they are expected to snap that sequence against Villa and are as short as 3/10 to claim maximum points.

Manchester City v Aston Villa betting tips and predictions

Manchester City to win & under 3.5 goals - 6/4

The pressure is now on Pep Guardiola’s men following Sunday’s 0-0 draw with Arsenal and it is vital that they record a victory at home to Villa.

The Citizens have been way below the standards we have been accustomed to in recent weeks and the goals have been much harder to come by with Erling Haaland on a three-game goal drought.

City managed only one shot on target against Arsenal and they need to raise their level against Villa, who were plucky 1-0 winners in the reverse fixture in December.

That said, City are unbeaten in 15 home league games this season, winning on 10 occasions, and should ultimately prove too strong for their visitors at their Etihad fortress.

Villa are having an excellent campaign but some inconsistencies are starting to creep into their game.

The Villans have struggled in recent encounters with top-eight outfits, having twice lost to Manchester United and been beaten by Tottenham and Newcastle as well as being held to a draw by West Ham since Boxing Day.

But while City should prevail, it may not be a free-scoring classic and the hosts winning a tight game is what appeals most.

City have scored just nine goals and conceded only three across their last seven league games, with under 2.5 goals obliging in six of those outings.

Of their 10 home league wins this term, six have featured three or fewer goals and Villa did keep clean sheets in back-to-back games against City and Arsenal earlier in the season, showing that they can be resilient when required.

Over 7.5 Manchester City corners - 1/1

City’s dominance in possession means they are still racking up plenty of corners despite a dip in goalscoring threat and they should be able to manage at least eight corners against Villa. 

Guardiola’s side had 73 per cent possession and forced seven corners against Arsenal and it should be a similar scenario against the Villans.

City have had 226 corners across their 29 matches this season, which is an average of 7.79 per outing, and they have had nine or more in five of their last seven fixtures at the Etihad.

West Ham, Villa’s last opponents on the road, had seven corners while Luton prior to that forced eight at Kenilworth Road which suggests City could go close to having double figures.

In this fixture last season, City had eight corners and Villa’s high line means there should be plenty of opportunity for the hosts to get in behind and cause chaos.

Douglas Luiz to be shown a card - 13/8

The midfield battle is going to be crucial at the Etihad and Villa’s Douglas Luiz looks a likely card candidate.

Luiz has committed 40 fouls in the Premier League this season, more than any other Villa player, and he has been booked 10 times in 45 appearances.

The Brazilian can get frustrated when on the losing side in matches and he is going to spend a lot of time out of possession, chasing City’s shadows in order to try and regain the ball.

Interestingly, Luiz has been booked in Villa’s last two away league games at West Ham and Luton while he was also given a yellow against Arsenal earlier in the season which, like this, was another monumental occasion.

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Manchester City v Aston Villa Odds

Manchester City - 3/10
Draw - 5/1
Aston Villa - 7/1

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.