Winter Derby day is always one of the season's features on the all-weather at Lingfield and Racing Post tipster Graeme Rodway returns with his best bets for the Flat fixture.
Miss Nay Never @ 9/2
The Hever Sprint Stakes (1.30) is one of the most competitive races that I’ve seen on the all-weather this season and Tone The Barone looks like he is going to be a warm favourite.
He was impressive when winning at Wolverhampton last time, but this is a race where any number appear to have strong chances and I wouldn’t want to take a short price about him.
The better bet might be the red-hot Miss Nay Never at a bigger price. She comes here in the form of her life after a hat-trick at Chelmsford and has a chance if showing that form here.
Miss Nay Never was more impressive than ever when bolting up by two-and-three-quarter lengths at the Essex track last month when she made all the running and never looked in any danger.
She is clearly thriving and takes the step up into Listed company for the first time since competing at Ayr last September. The fact she ran in that race shows she is well regarded.
And who’s to say she won’t repeat her best form at this track? She has yet to run at Lingfield and this course is a left-handed, tight circuit similar to Chelmsford where she runs so well.
It’s worth taking a chance on Miss Nay Never in her current rich vein of form with in-form regular rider Jason Hart back on board. His presence in the saddle is yet another positive.
The mile handicap (2.40) is another good betting race and hot favourite Security Code looks opposable. He will need to improve on what he has shown in two outings in novice company to win on his handicap debut and this is a much stronger race than he has contested so far.
The value against him might lie with Outbreak, who is bred to be smart as a son of the dual Group 3 and all-weather winner Purr Along. He looked like he might go on to similar success when bolting up at Salisbury as a juvenile, but has run only three times since that easy win.
Outbreak has evidently had his problems, but he returned from a long absence to finish a promising fifth of 13 at Wolverhampton 12 days ago. He set a good gallop that day and was still in there pitching until late on, when he faded and the lack of a recent run took its toll.
There should be plenty of improvement to come from Outbreak now he has that first run for 323 days under his belt and his juvenile win at Salisbury came when turned out quickly just 12 days after his previous run. He runs here having had exactly the same time off the track.
That is enough to convince me that Outbreak can overcome any potential bounce factor for that recent return and Andrea Atzeni is an eye-catching booking. Outbreak has more to offer.