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Football: Liam Flin's European league antepost tips

With the Bundesliga, Ligue 1, La Liga and Serie A set to get underway shortly, Racing Post tipster Liam Flin has taken a look at how each of the top European leagues could unfold this season.

This article was originally published on 17 October 2022

Hard to see past more Bavarian domination in the Bundesliga

Over the last decade, the Bundesliga has earned a reputation for having the least competitive title race across all of Europe's elite divisions with Bayern Munich romping to a tenth successive top-flight triumph last season.

They are 1/5 to make it 11 titles on the spin in the 2022/23 season and it would be a bold move to oppose them.

Although the future of Robert Lewandowski remains uncertain, they have acted shrewdly in the transfer window once again, drafting in Ajax stars Noussair Mazraoui and Ryan Gravenberch as well as world-class forward Sadio Mane from Liverpool.

That said, there should be some decent title challenges, not least from Borussia Dortmund, who have shored up their defence with the signings of Niklas Sule and Nico Schlotterbeck and replaced Man City-bound Erling Haaland with German ace Karim Adeyemi.

As ever, they have the makings of a dangerous side and new head coach Edin Terzic knows this club well, having acted as caretaker boss in the 2020/21 campaign.

Leipzig will also be in contention but perhaps the best bet in the top-four finish market are Bayer Leverkusen at 8/11.

Leverkusen placed third in last term's Bundesliga despite playing a chunk of the season without star player Florian Wirtz but the midfielder has committed his future to the club and it seems star forward Patrik Schick is also sticking around.

Adam Hlozek is a fine young signing and they should be in Champions League contention once again.

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Marseille could again be PSG's closest challengers in France

Having lost the title to Lille in the 2020/21 season, Paris Saint-Germain responded emphatically in Ligue 1 last term, finishing 15 points clear at the top.

Their Champions League struggles, however, continued and Mauricio Pochettino departed the club this summer with Christophe Galtier, the man who led Lille to glory two seasons ago, taking the reins this campaign.

They remain the powerhouse of French football with Kylian Mbappe, Neymar and Lionel Messi making for an eye-watering attacking and midfielder Vitinha, signed from Porto this transfer window, shows a lot of promise.

It is really asking too much of the other sides to match PSG, who are 1/10 to lift the trophy, and it is in the 'without PSG' and the top-three markets where value can be found.

And punters could do worse than back Marseille at 5/2 to win without PSG, given they finished second last season.

They occupied a top-three berth from December onwards and have focused their attention this summer on getting former loan players such as Arkadiusz Milik, Matteo Guendouzi and Cengiz Under to sign permanent deals.

The squad looks settled and they should have a better chance than Monaco, who have lost star midfielder Aurelien Tchouameni, and Lyon, who could yet lose key personnel this summer.

Real ready for more La Liga success

In Spain, the title race is a more competitive betting heat but it is nonetheless hard to look beyond Real Madrid as potential champions.

In Carlo Ancelotti's first season back at the Santiago Bernabeu, Los Blancos lifted the Champions League trophy once again but also ran out La Liga champions, finishing 13 points ahead of Barcelona in second spot.

Madrid were spearheaded by prime Ballon d'Or candidate Karim Benzema, who bagged 27 goals in the Spanish top flight, and they look even stronger ahead of 2022/23 with Antonio Rudiger added to the defence on a free and Aurelien Tchouameni a star capture in midfield.

On the pitch, Barcelona are in good hands with Xavi in the dugout but the same cannot be said off of it with the Catalan club reportedly over La Liga's spending limits this summer and selling future merchandising and TV rights to compensate.

After December, they suffered only three league defeats in the remainder of their league campaign but their financial struggles render their 11/8 outright price unenticing.

Atletico Madrid are unsurprising favourites in the 'without Real Madrid and Barcelona' market after finishing third last season and Axel Witsel looks like an appropriate signing in midfield, but do not rule out Sevilla, who finished only one point behind Atleti last term.

Inter the best selection in Serie A title betting

Last season Serie A was home to the most intriguing title tussle of Europe's big leagues and that could once again be the case in the 2022/23 campaign.

It was AC Milan who rose to the top last term, claiming their first Scudetto since the 2010/11 season under the guidance of Stefano Pioli.

The Rossoneri were, however, pushed to their limits in the title race, finishing the season with a run of eight wins in ten matches to pip rivals Inter to top spot.

Defending a title is often harder than winning one, though, and Milan go into the new campaign without industrious midfielder Franck Kessie and with forwards Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Olivier Giroud turning 41 and 36 respectively later in the year.

Last term's Most Valuable Player Rafael Leao is consistently being linked with moves away and Milan may not have the most settled of squads come the start of the season.

Juventus, meanwhile, have added former Manchester United midfielder Paul Pogba to their ranks with the Frenchman typically a better player in Italy than in the Premier League, while Dusan Vlahovic is readying himself for a first full season with the Old Lady.

But the elephant in the room cannot be ignored - Juve finished 16 points adrift of top spot last season and Max Allegri seriously struggled to motivate his squad.

Inter, meanwhile, were only two points behind Milan at the end of the season and have responded by making Robin Gosens and Joaquin Correa's loan deals permanent, bringing in a top keeper in Andre Onana as well as resigning Romelu Lukaku on loan.

Lukaku's firepower in the final third could be what they need to finish on top and they are a solid outright selection at 7/4.

By Liam Flin.

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