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King George VI Chase 2023: Supercomputer predicts Bravemansgame win

The 2023 edition of the King George VI Chase is set to be a fascinating contest and a supercomputer has predicted who will win the coveted Grade 1 race.

A highlight for many horse racing fans over the festive period, the King George lineup so far is one befitting of the great race with a number of Grade 1 winners preparing to descend on Kempton for the Boxing Day event.

Bravemansgame returns to defend his crown for Paul Nicholls while Royale Pagaille and Frodon, who finished second and third respectively in the race last year, are to feature.

Six-time Grade 1 winner Shishkin is set to run, despite refusing to race in his last outing at Ascot. Nicky Henderson and connections are optimistic he can return to the imperious form he showed over shorter distances as a novice.

Other contenders include the trio of Irish-trained gallopers in Gerri Colombe, Hewick and Allaho, with the latter the 15/8 favourite: but will the two-time Ryanair Chase winner come out on top?

bet365, in collaboration with Irishracing.com, programmed a ‘supercomputer’ to predict the winner of the 2023 edition of the King George VI Chase. 

The supercomputer took into account various relevant factors and analysed the results of all King George VI chases to have taken place, before assigning a winning probability to the 2023 field.

Collecting data on past winners, an algorithm was developed that could determine the characteristics of a ‘typical winning horse’ in the King George.

Characteristics of a winning horse in the King George VI Chase 

Age7
Betting Position2
Initial Odds3.875
SireVillage Star (FR)
DamKauto Relka (FR)
Dam SirePort Etienne (FR)
Ran over 24 furlongsTRUE
Distance run over 24 furlongs3m
Country of origin (Trainer)Great Britain
Country of origin (Horse)France
Country of origin (Sire)France
Country of origin (Dam)France

The supercomputer then examined the relevant data for all horses competing in this year's race and assigned similarity scores. The closer the similarity score to 1, the higher the winning probability of the particular horse.

So without further ado, the results are in...

King George VI Chase Prediction

 HorseOdds
1.Bravemansgame11/4
2.The Real Whacker8/1
3.Shishkin13/2
4.Hewick20/1
5.Allaho15/8
6.Royale Pagaille8/1
7.Gerri Colombe5/1
8.Midnight River100/1
9.Shan Blue100/1
10.Edwardstone50/1
11.Pic D'Orhy33/1
12.Protektorat66/1
13.Frodon66/1
14.My Drogo100/1

The supercomputer’s simulations favour the defending champion Bravemansgame, with Nicholls’ stable star expected to record back-to-back victories in the King George VI Chase.

The Real Whacker, who was pulled up on his last run at Cheltenham in November, is expected to push him close in second while Shishkin is the third favourite, according to the supercomputer's estimations.

Hewick, who is without jockey Jordan Gainford after he sustained an injury in Naas, is expected to come home in fourth. Allaho, the favourite for the race, is predicted to finish fifth in the event.

Despite beating Bravemansgame by six-and-a-half lengths in the Betfair Chase in November, Royale Pagaille is the sixth favourite in the supercomputer's assessment - while Champion Chase victor Gerri Colombe ranks seventh, ahead of the likes of Midnight River, Shan Blue and Edwardstone.

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