Horse Racing Tips: Keith Melrose's Newmarket Sweet Solera Stakes tips

bet365 News Team Updated: 09 Jun 23 12:49 Published: 05 Aug 22 16:54

The feature race in Britain on Saturday is on Newmarket's card and Keith Melrose from the Racing Post has picked out his best bets.

1.55 Newmarket
Killybeggs Warrior @ 6/4
2pts win

3.05 Newmarket
Falling Shadow @ 11/8
1pt win

3.40 Newmarket
Novakai @ 10/3
1pt win

Warrior to fight on

Only three have been declared for the 7f nursery that will be run as the second race on the card at 1.55 and there are big gaps between the three runners on ratings - Killybegs Warrior will be giving 9lb to Tarlo and 21lb to Kodi Dancer.

That is the nature of the game in handicaps and it could of course be argued that the others have more potential, but it does not really stand up.

Killybegs Warrior has run the least out of the three and has already achieved a level of form that would make him a viable runner, albeit not necessarily a leading contender, in a higher grade.

He won a maiden here on his debut in June and next ran under a penalty at Haydock. He came clear there with a well-fancied Charlie Hills horse and a shock winner debutant. Temptation to do down that form is tempered by a sound overall time and a gap of seven lengths back to the rest.

While there is potential all over the place in 7f juvenile races at this time of year, Killybegs Warrior could well just prove to be a class above his two rivals, at least in the short term.

Godolphin to put them in the shade

Half the field in the 1m2f handicap at 3.05 are in the Godolphin silks.

All are with different trainers: Daramethos wears the apparent 'first' cap (blue), despite being the one not trained by a retained trainer.

He is with the Gosdens, while Falling Shadow is trained by Charlie Appleby and Night Of Luxury by Saeed bin Suroor.

The early betting has identified Falling Shadow as the most interesting and that looks the right order to these eyes, for all the undoubted potential in the others.

He has been a mightily progressive sort, passing the post first (later disqualified) on his latter start as a two-year-old and winning comfortably at Newbury on his reappearance.

He then ran in a hot handicap at Royal Ascot and was not disgraced.

If anything, he shaped there as though going up to 1m4f will benefit, but for now Newmarket's stiff finish will do and James Doyle just needs to ensure there is enough emphasis on stamina.

Maiden winner to taste Sweet success

There is not that much in terms of established form in the feature Sweet Solera Stakes and so it could pay to side with potential.

Novakai has that in spades going by her debut win at Doncaster and it would be no surprise to see her ultimately go off favourite for this race.

The time of Novakai's Doncaster win was good and the visual impression she left was even better.

She went toe to toe with the favourite, a well-backed and experienced runner from the Johnston yard, and had her rival crying enough well over a furlong out.

That horse, Crackovia, fell back and was almost caught by the pack, but Novakai kept going and ran out a four and a quarter length winner.

Novakai is by Lope De Vega, who is not best known as a sire of two-year-olds, and his dam was a middle-distance staying type who did not race until she was three.

That says that this filly, who looked quite tall at Doncaster, has plenty of long-term potential to go with the clear ability she showed at Doncaster.

If there is a star in this year's Sweet Solera, it is surely her.

By Keith Melrose