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John Deere Classic: Prediction, Tips and Odds

The PGA TOUR makes its final stop before crossing the pond for the Scottish Open, and Mike Glasscott has eight picks to follow for the John Deere Classic.

John Deere Classic

John Deere Classic tips

To Win: 

  • Denny McCarthy (20/1)

  • Davis Thompson (25/1)

Top 10: 

  • Adam Schenk (25/4)

  • Seamus Power (47/10)

  • Maverick McNealy (3/1)

Top 20: 

  • Sam Stevens (9/4)

  • Patton Kizzire (10/3)

Top 40: 

  • Zach Johnson (9/5)

TPC Deere Run course guide

TPC Deere Run assumed hosting duties for the 2000 edition of the John Deere Classic. Designed by three-time winner and Illinois native D.A. Weibring, the Par-71 will play 7,289 yards for the third consecutive season.

The 35-36 layout features two par-5s on the inward nine.

The par-3s, four in total, played under par (2.99) for the 2023 edition.

The par-4s also played under par (3.99) last season.

The winning score over the last 14 editions has been 18-under or lower.

Defending the wide fairways are four inches of Kentucky Bluegrass and Fescue. The 5,500 square foot greens are L-93 Bentgrass and are some of the most receptive and true-rolling on TOUR. Plenty of birdie putts will be holed this week.

Avoiding the 78 bunkers, ravines, and three water penalty areas will make for a successful week if the putter is hot.

Paul Goydos set the course record with an opening round 59 in 2010. Plenty of low rounds, weather permitting, could be in play again this week. The last three winners have all shared or owned the lowest round of the week.

John Deere Classic preview

The PGA TOUR remains in the Midwest this week for the 53rd edition of the John Deere Classic.

Over the last decade, eight of the last 10 winners have been 30 years old or younger, including five of the previous six.

The field of 156 players includes just six of the 50 in the Official World Golf rankings, led by No. 24 and defending champion Sepp Straka.

The field will be cut to the top 65 and ties after 36 holes. The highest cut in the previous five events is three-under par 139.

Straka was just the fifth international champion to be crowned in 23 previous events.

Dylan Frittelli and 2018 tournament record-setter Michael Kim are the last two players to break their maiden at this event on the PGA TOUR.

J.T. Poston, the champion in 2022, was the first player in 30 years to go wire-to-wire. There are nine past champions in the field.

In the last decade, eight winners have ranked in the top six in Ball Striking, and seven have ranked in the top seven in Putting: Birdie or Better Conversion Percentage. The more fairways and greens, the more birdies or better!

Jordan Spieth (2015, 2013) joins Steve Stricker (not entered; 2009-2011) as the only multiple winners at TPC Deere Run. Playing this week, he has not entered since winning the 2015 event.

The winner will take home 500 FedExCup points plus $1.454 million from the $8 million purse.

The top two players not already qualified will qualify for the 152nd Open Championship at Royal Troon and there are only five weeks left to qualify for the FedExCup Playoffs!

Top of the Board  

Sungjae Im (14/1): Looking for his first win on TOUR since the 2022 Shriners Children’s Open, the Korean has cashed T12 or better in five of his last eight on TOUR. Posting 20-under two weeks ago at TPC River Highlands should be the perfect warm-up for another shootout. Last week’s favorite, Tom Kim, didn’t make the weekend in Detroit. Im has never finished inside the top 25 in two visits but has made the cut each time.

Sepp Straka (16/1): Defending a championship for the second time in his career, the Austrian lit up TPC River Highlands for 61 in Round 4 in his last round. Sitting second in Fairways, he will give his irons plenty of chances to get it close. Hitting 61 of 72 GIR in 2023, he tied for the most in the field. Unlike last year, he rolls into the Quad Cities in excellent form with T26 or better in 10 of 12 weekends.

Aaron Rai (18/1): Hitting plenty of fairways and greens is the strength of the Englishman. Last week, he was in the fight on Sunday and played in the final group. His two best finishes of the season were on tracks where the winning score was 18-under or better, Detroit Golf Club (T2; -17) and TPC Craig Ranch (T4; -20). Hyper accurate off the tee and into the greens, he won’t make too many bogeys (4th Bogey Avoidance).

Jordan Spieth (20/1): This is the only PGA TOUR event the Texan has won more than once. Also, he hasn’t played since he won for the second time in 2015. Disappointing results at some of his favorite haunts this season (Pebble Beach, Augusta National, Colonial) have him lingering at 59th in the FedExCup Standings. Adding this event to the schedule suggests he needs more reps before heading across the pond for the final major of the season.

Denny McCarthy (20/1): I’m bullish on this sweet short-game expert who loves a loop around TPC Deere Run. In the last two seasons, he’s posted 16-under each time and finished T6 both years. With two playoff losses over the last 13 months, he should be ready to pounce if another chance is presented.

Maverick McNealy (25/1): Playing last week for the first time since the RBC Canadian Open, the competitive rust should be gone. Before the hiatus, he rattled off T23 (PGA Championship), T17 (Charles Schwab Challenge), and T7 (RBC Canadian Open). Currently sitting at No. 10 in SG: Total, he also checks in at No. 14 in Birdie Average. Trending on TOUR and at the event, the former Stanford man cashed T8 during his last visit in 2022 and T18 in 2021.

Davis Thompson (25/1): Posting the lowest weekend total (134), he raced up the leaderboard to join three others at T2. More impressively, he posted T9 at Pinehurst No. 2 at the U.S. Open in his previous start. Sitting 13th SG: Tee to Green will come in handy this week.

Players to consider for Top 10, Top 20, or Top 40 action:

Dylan Wu: Squared just three bogeys last week in a top-10 payday in Detroit.

Patton Kizzire: Cashing four times at T25 or better in his last five starts on TOUR has my attention.

Greyson Sigg: Making his third visit, he’s posted T13 and T16 the last two seasons.

Wesley Bryan: A solid start in Detroit faded as the weekend deepened, but he’s posted two top-10 paydays at TPC Deere Run in his career.

Zach Johnson: The native of Iowa considers this event his fifth major. Sitting on the tournament board since 2004, the 2012 champion has hit the top 10 eight times.

Adam Schenk: In five starts, the Indiana native has made the cut three times, all T6 or better.

Seamus Power: Making his sixth visit, the Irishman has yet to miss the weekend. In four of five events, he’s cashed T25 or better.

Patrick Rodgers: Another Indiana native looking for his first win on TOUR, the former Stanford man was beaten to the finish line in 2017 by a youngster named Bryson DeChambeau. Making the cut six times in 10 starts, he’s cashed in the top 30 five times.

Sam Stevens: The Texan sat two shots off the 54-hole lead last week before limping in with 73 on Sunday (T10). That’s not a bad result, considering his last round was at the RBC CO on June 2 (T14). Top 40 SG: Putting, SG: Off the Tee, and GIR. Nice blend.

Andrew Novak: After missing the cut in his first three starts of 2024, he’s rattled off 11 of 13 weekends. Cashing T30 or better in four of his last six, the last two results (T20, T14) are the best of the bunch. 

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