Iran v USA, Ecuador v Senegal and Netherlands v Qatar: Mark Langdon's World Cup betting tips

Mark Langdon Updated: 29 Nov 22 17:34 Published: 28 Nov 22 11:43

The final round of group-stage games start on Tuesday with some crunch clashes and Racing Post top tipster Mark Langdon is on hand to deliver his verdict.

Ecuador meet Senegal in Group A with only one likely to progress, while hosts Qatar are only playing for pride against Netherlands.

With England virtually through and opponents Wales on the brink it means the Group B decider between Iran and USA is a virtual knockout match before the last 16 even starts.

Iran to thwart USA

What: Iran v USA, Group B

Where: Al Thumama Stadium, Doha

When: 19:00, Tuesday 29th November 2022

How to watch: BBC2

Odds: Iran 3/1, Draw 5/2, USA 19/20

There's a winner takes all encounter in Group B between Iran and USA with the group set up perfectly for a thriller in Doha between the teams.

Iran hold a slight advantage - they will qualify with a draw if Wales don't beat England - and the Asian team look to be underrated for the assignment with the outsiders preferred on the double chance market not to lose the match.

They started the World Cup with a shocking performance when losing 6-2 to England, however, the early injury to goalkeeper Alireza Beiranvand appeared to unsettle Carlos Queiroz's side.

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The fact Sardar Azmoun was unable to figure from the start will also have impacted on performance, but he was back against Wales and offers a twin attacking threat alongside Porto hotshot Mehdi Taremi.

Iran were much better when beating Wales 2-0 in a game where they also struck the woodwork twice and the group situation where USA definitely need to win should suit Queiroz's counter-attacking tactics, making Iran or Draw at 4/5 appealing in the Double Chance market.

USA had the better of Friday's 0-0 bore draw against England, but they still only had one shot on target. It was the same story in the 1-1 opening draw against Wales when the US scored with their only attempt on target through Timothy Weah.

There's a lot of energy in the US midfield with Tyler Adams and Winston McKennie and yet they don't have a massive threat in the penalty box with Josh Sargent and Haji Wright so far falling short.

USA need to win and they have only been victorious once in their last seven matches - a 5-0 triumph over Grenada - which is not comparable to this fixture.

Energetic Ecuador to stand firm

What: Ecuador v Senegal, Group A

Where: Khalifa International Stadium, Al Rayyan

When: 15:00, Tuesday 29th November 2022

How to watch: ITV4

Odds: Ecuador 29/20, Draw 11/5, Senegal 21/10

It will take an unlikely set of results for Ecuador and Senegal to both progress through to the knockout stage so this is virtually a knockout match in Group A unless Netherlands suffer a defeat to hosts Qatar.

Both will expect Netherlands to at least pick up a point and therefore Ecuador need a draw with Senegal going into the match expecting to be out unless they beat the South Americans.

Ecuador have been one of the surprise packages of this tournament and are worth backing to see off Senegal even though there is a doubt over main goalscorer Enner Valencia, who is struggling with a knee injury.

Valencia has scored all three of Ecuador's goals but they are far from a one-man team and were totally dominant in the 1-1 draw with Netherlands.

Ecuador won the shot count 15-2 and stepped off the gas against Qatar in the opener after racing into a 2-0 advantage.

Brighton's Moses Caicdeo is a class act in the midfield and Bayer Leverkusen defender Piero Hincapie looks to have a big future ahead of him too in what is a young team with plenty of potential.

Senegal lost 2-0 to Netherlands and beat Qatar 3-1 but are clearly missing the star quality of the inspirational forward Sadio Mane. There is a lot of emphasis on Ismaila Sarr to deliver and Ecuador look a more balanced unit.

Hosts Qatar to exit pointless

What: Netherlands v Qatar, Group A

Where: Al Bayt Stadium, Akl Khor

When: 15:00, Tuesday 29th November 2022

How to watch: ITV1

Odds: Netherlands 1/5, Draw 6/1, Qatar 14/1

Home advantage has not been enough for Qatar to bridge the obvious gulf between them and the other nations in Group A and the hosts are set to end the World Cup pointless with a clash with Netherlands the last chance to pick up a result.

There was nothing wrong with the effort against Senegal, but the 3-1 loss was deserved and they were fortunate to only go down 2-0 against Ecuador in the opening match.

As the odds suggest, this should be one-sided despite the Dutch being way below their best in the 1-1 draw with Ecuador on Friday when they managed just two shots in 90 minutes.

Cody Gakpo, who has opened the scoring twice for the Dutch already, could be worth backing at 11/2 to do the same again.

Gakpo is the leading goalscorer in the Eredivisie and looks destined for a big future.

Another bet to consider is 7/4 for no in the both teams to pick up a card market. Louis van Gaal will not want his Dutch team to pick up any cheap cards with the knockouts on the horizon.