The World Cup group stage is reaching its conclusion with a number of teams sweating on their participation in the knockout rounds.
Scotland are now as good as out, and even teams like South Korea on three points are relying on results elsewhere.
Regarding the eight best third-placed teams, Sweden, Ecuador, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Paraguay have virtually secured their places in the round of 32 in getting to four points.
In Group J, which will be decided in the early hours of Sunday morning, Austria and Algeria are both currently on three points and know they'd each qualify with a draw.
In Group K, a DR Congo win over Uzbekistan takes them to four points and books them a place in the round of 32. In Group L, unless Ghana beat Croatia, both will be on at least four points, leaving seven of the eight places occupied.
For Senegal, who play Iraq on Friday evening, things are starting to look more precarious. They know that South Korea are on three points with a goal difference of -1, so they need a two-goal win to finish above them on goals scored.
If Senegal win by two goals, they will be keeping a close eye on Groups G, H and K. Assuming Belgium beat New Zealand, they will move to five points, and they will look for Egypt to beat Iran, to keep Iran on two points. If Iran draw with Egypt, they will be on three points with 0 goal difference, meaning Senegal will need to win by three goals.
If Iran beat Egypt and Belgium beat New Zealand, Senegal won't be able to finish above any of those teams.
In Group H, Spain are on four points and will likely top the group with a draw, though that would take Uruguay to three points with a 0 goal difference, while at least one of Cape Verde or Saudi Arabia are guaranteed to be on at least 3 points with a goal difference.
If Uruguay get a result against Spain, Senegal will need at least a three-goal win over Iraq to finish above a Group H team.
Senegal permutations
If Senegal win by two goals, they will qualify if two of the following outcomes happen:
- Belgium beat New Zealand and Egypt beat Iran;
- Austria or Algeria win their final group game against each other;
- DR Congo don't beat Uzbekistan;
- Spain beat Uruguay;
- Ghana beat Croatia
If Senegal win by three goals, they will qualify if two of the following outcomes happen:
- Belgium beat New Zealand and Egypt draw with or beat Iran;
- Austria or Algeria win their final group game against each other;
- DR Congo don't beat Uzbekistan;
- Uruguay don't beat Spain and Cape Verde draw with Saudi Arabia
- Ghana beat Croatia
Senegal qualification odds
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Odds displayed in the above article were correct at time of publishing and are subject to change or withdrawal at any time.
