Horse racing tips: Strong Impact fancied at Chelmsford

There is plenty of strong racing on the bet365-sponsored card at Chelmsford on Saturday and Keith Melrose from the Racing Post gives his best bets from the meeting.

Keith Melrose's tips

4.05 Chelmsford - Strong Impact @ 4/1
4.40 Chelmsford - Capo Vaticano @ 6/4
5.45 Chelmsford - Island Native @ 7/1

4.05 Chelmsford - Strong Impact @ 4/1

Ryan Moore is in town at Chelmsford for three rides on Saturday. He is here mainly for Capulet, who runs in the feature 3.30, so his other rides are might-as-well mounts who could end up being overbacked.

Roxanne in this race is one such example. She was 3-3 in Germany but there are plenty of unknowns ahead of this British debut. Moore's booking is admittedly one positive answer to many of them, but at cramped odds you can look elsewhere. That is especially true with one like STRONG IMPACT in the field.

We know a lot more about Strong Impact, including that he has the rare distinction of being both well handicapped and unexposed. He has run in only one handicap before, when he was second to a Sir Mark Prescott-trained improver, and has since broken his maiden easily at Epsom.

Strong Impact starts the season on a good mark and trainer Roger Varian has started the season brightly. He has three wins from just eight runners in the last fortnight and plenty of strong chances across Saturday's meetings. None look likelier than Strong Impact.

Keith Melrose's tip:

Strong Impact @ 4/1 - 1pt win

4.40 Chelmsford - Capo Vaticano @ 6/4

The Moore-ridden Rebel Empire is again expected to be favourite here, but he does not set a particularly high standard and this second run in a fortnight is likely to be primarily to secure a handicap mark and regarded as a bonus if he can win.

He may not have to improve to beat three of his four rivals. By far the biggest danger is debutant CAPO VATICANO, for Andrew Balding and Rob Hornby.

This filly is by Calyx, whose first crop last year did well. More to the point, she is from a fast family. She has many useful sprinters among her half-siblings and is likely to be well suited to this sharp 5f on her first run.

Balding is another who has got off to a brisk start this season. He has sent out 28 runners in the last fortnight, with a quarter of them winning. That exceeds his usual strike-rate. If Capo Vaticano is as quick out of the gates, she might well have Rebel Empire's measure.

Keith Melrose's tip:

Capo Vaticano @ 6/4 - 1pt win

5.45 Chelmsford - Island Native @ 7/1

Chelmsford is well known as a track that favours prominent racers. That is part of the reason ISLAND NATIVE has done so well here, recording both a win and his best run on Racing Post Ratings on two visits to this track.

This 7f trip also seems important to him. While he has split his wins over 7f and 1m since joining Mick Appleby, his form figures over trips around 1m read 5371366. Over 7f he is 212.

Two starts back, Island Native was beaten a short head over course and distance. He did not come up to snuff over an extended mile at Wolverhampton next time, but that can be forgiven.

On the strength of his latest run here, he deserves strong consideration. And while draw is not hugely important over 7f at Chelmsford, with a long run to the only bend, being in stall two will only help Island Brave take up a prominent position, which will help him.

Keith Melrose's tip:

Island Native @ 7/1 - 1pt win

Keith Melrose's tips

4.05 Chelmsford - Strong Impact @ 4/1
4.40 Chelmsford - Capo Vaticano @ 6/4
5.45 Chelmsford - Island Native @ 7/1

This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.