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Graeme Rodway
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Horse racing tips: Super Survivor can tough it out for Welsh Grand National glory

The Welsh Grand National is the feature on a bumper eight-race card at Chepstow, live on ITV4, and Racing Post tipster Graeme Rodway returns with his best bets on the day.

Graeme Rodway's tips

1.05 Chepstow - First Flow @ 5/2
1.40 Chepstow - Bells Of Peterboro @ 8/1
2.50 Chepstow - Super Survivor @ 9/2

1.05 Chepstow - First Flow @ 5/2

Only four runners have been declared for the 2m3½f handicap chase (1.05) and there is a good chance that FIRST FLOW will dominate this race from the front, especially if the rain arrives.

The Kim Bailey-trained 11-year-old is at his best when going to the lead and he simply loves it when the mud is flying. The 17mm of overnight rain that is forecast should turn the conditions in his favour and he is nicely handicapped judged on the pick of his form.

He has been rated as high as 166, but races off just 158 and proved this mark isn't beyond him when second behind Boothill, off this rating, in a handicap at Ascot on his latest outing.

That form has been franked by the winner, who went in again off 6lb higher mark back at the track next time, and First Flow beat everything else comfortably despite having gone off fast.

That was his first run for six months, so he should improve for the outing, and the extra three and a half furlongs also look sure to suit. First Flow appears to have everything in his favour.

Graeme Rodway's tip:

First Flow @ 5/2 - 1pt win

1.40 Chepstow - Bells Of Peterboro @ 8/1

The 2m7½f handicap hurdle (1.40) comes up next and this is a race in which BELLS OF PETERBORO seems to excel. He has run in it twice before and is back for another crack.

Bells Of Peterboro won it two years ago and finished second last season, but now runs off a mark 3lb lower than when winning and 6lb lower than last year, so he is well handicapped.

He gave notice that he could soon cash in on that falling rating when eighth of 19 in a competitive handicap chase at Cheltenham in October and the market liked him when he returned to hurdles at Lingfield last month. He went off favourite, but finished only fourth.

However, that would probably have been no more than a prep run for a return to his favourite race and maybe the going wasn't as soft as it was advertised at Lingfield that day. He looks certain to get his favoured ground here and Bells Of Peterboro is one of the bets of the day.

Graeme Rodway's tip:

Bells Of Peterboro @ 8/1 - 1pt win

2.50 Chepstow - Super Survivor @ 9/2

The Welsh Grand National (2.50) is the feature of the entire season at Chepstow and one of the traditional festive highlights. It is a good chance for SUPER SURVIVOR to land his big one.

Trainer Jamie Snowden will have had this event in mind for Super Survivor since his runaway victory in the novice handicap chase at this meeting last year and he has done a superb job to get his runner here off a mark just 5lb higher than for that easy course victory.

He has done that by running him only twice since. Super Survivor was third on his final start of last season at Uttoxeter and returned from a summer break with an excellent second at Lingfield last month when beaten only by stablemate Git Maker, who had the run of the race.

Super Survivor stayed on well and his failure to win there means he escaped a penalty for this bid. Everything is in place for a huge run with Gavin Sheehan, who is riding on the crest of a wave and comes into the day after another big win on Hewick at Kempton yesterday, booked.

Graeme Rodway's tip:

Super Survivor @ 9/2 - 1pt win

Graeme Rodway's tips

1.05 Chepstow - First Flow @ 5/2
1.40 Chepstow - Bells Of Peterboro @ 8/1
2.50 Chepstow - Super Survivor @ 9/2

This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.

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