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Gary Savage
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Horse Racing tips: 12/1 Japanese raider a genuine Arc contender

It's Arc day at Longchamp and the Racing Post's Gary Savage is here with a bet for the big one and a two more from a stellar supporting card.

Gary Savage's tips

1.15 Longchamp - Native American @ 12/1
3.05 Longchamp -Through Seven Seas @ 12/1
4.25 Longchamp - Get Ahead @ 14/1

All odds are correct at time of writing and subject to change.

View all the latest Horse Racing odds here

1.15 Longchamp - Native American @ 12/1

Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe day opens as ever with the Group 1 2yo colts race the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere at 1.15 and the market is headed by the unbeaten Beauvatier and Ballydoyle's Unquestionable.

The standard they set is not insurmountable and indeed on RPRs they are not even top-rated, that honour goes to Rosallion, so they make the market nicely for a whole host of interesting contenders.

Rosallion himself, if forgiven his below-par effort at Doncaster two weeks ago, looks a top prospect with his Ascot Listed success receiving plenty of boosts since.

He was weak in the market on soft ground last time, so quicker ground may help him achieve his potential here, but at slightly bigger odds I prefer the chances of Richard Fahey's NATIVE AMERICAN.

He hasn't achieved as much as most of this field so far, but the way he scooted away in a Curragh sales race last time marked him out as a top-level prospect.

Fahey was keen to stress how undercooked he was for that contest as he had been growing a lot this summer, a fact borne out by the gap since he last ran in May.

Fahey hasn't had a runner in today's contest since Wootton Bassett scooted up in 2010, and it is more than notable that he took in two sales races en route to this Group One and he looks decent value to make a mockery of his rating.

Gary Savage's tip:

Native American @ 12/1 - 1pt each-way

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3.05 Longchamp -Through Seven Seas @ 12/1

You could tie yourself in knots every year trying to untangle the various competing form lines coming into the Arc, although the market usually gets it about right on decent ground.

Ace Impact seems a perfectly reasonable price at around 3/1, with draw and ground in his favour. Stamina doubts have been mooted but being by Cracksman, with a stoutly bred dam who has already thrown 1m2f winners, I think they are unjustified.

Nevertheless, this is going to represent a massive leap up in class, with top-level middle-distance performers like Hukum, Westover and Fantastic Moon, as well as Leger winner Continuous in opposition he will need to be very tough as well as fast.

Of those I would prefer the chances of Hukum, who has plenty of tactical speed, which is often very useful in this contest, but his draw is off-putting for one as short as he is in the market.

The Japanese obsession with winning the Arc seems to have cooled a little in recent years, but, with the last three renewals coming in very soft conditions, their recent challengers can be overlooked.

Only one contender turns up here, but THROUGH SEVEN SEAS is a very interesting one on her form with the world's top-rated horse Equinox.

Sent off at 55/1 for the Takarazuka Kinen in June, the 5yo mare was beaten only a neck at the line by Equinox, who had beaten Westover by and easy 3 1/2 lengths in winning the Dubai Sheema Classic in March.

Though some would consider a too-literal reading of that form foolish, there are reasons to think that Through Seven Seas wasn't flattered by the result.

Like Equinox, she sat out the back off what was a fast pace, a place behind him in last, and like him she made a late move to pass horses and finish off well over that 1m3f trip.

Unlike Equinox she was checked in her run at a vital stage and was closing on him near the line, so there is no reason to think the result a false one.

She's only been out of the first two twice in her last eight starts, both times from bad draws over an inadequate 1m2f, and with ground to suit and a nice draw in 5 today she looks a bit of value.

Gary Savage's tip:

Through Seven Seas @ 12/1 - 1pt each-way

4.25 Longchamp - Get Ahead @ 14/1

The Abbaye is always a race that gets the juices flowing and this year's renewal is no exception, with plenty of genuine contenders and the quandary of a bad draw for sprint superstar Highfield Princess.

I think that stall 14 is going to be too tough to overcome, even for the multiple Group One winner, and think that those to the fore in the Flying Five last time could have it between them again.

Unless blessed with blazing speed, the rail draws are difficult to overcome here and the fast ground should mean that the likes of Perdika and Ponntos will struggle to attain an easy lead.

White Lavender was second in this last year and has a lovely draw in six, but she too would prefer a slower surface and I'm hoping she slowly tacks across towards the rail taking my fancy GET AHEAD with her.

Clive Cox's progressive four-year-old put up a career best when getting mugged by Moss Tucker in the Curragh Group One last time and she can finally bag a big one.

Her run in the Nunthorpe, when drawn well away from the main action, showed her well worth her place at this level, form that ties in with Equality who is drawn just inside her today and should also race prominently.

Get Ahead has an extra 1lb allowance compared to the Curragh race today, which along with her preference for fast ground, will hopefully enable her to travel strongly and fend off Moss Tucker and Equality in the final yards.

Gary Savage's tip:

Get Ahead @ 14/1 - 2pt each way

Gary Savage's tips

1.15 Longchamp - Native American @ 12/1
3.05 Longchamp -Through Seven Seas @ 12/1
4.25 Longchamp - Get Ahead @ 14/1

All odds are correct at time of writing and subject to change.

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