It’s Cesarewitch day at Newmarket on Saturday and Racing Post tipster Graeme Rodway returns with his best bets on the card.
There is rain forecast to fall on ground that is already soft at Newmarket and that should suit Chief Little Rock in the Emirates Autumn Stakes (1.25) for Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore.
The son of Galileo is out of a Fastnet Rock mare and his progeny usually handle plenty of cut in the ground.
Chief Little Rock has shown a liking for a testing surface himself and stayed on well after being headed to finish second in the Beresford Stakes at the Curragh last time.
He doesn’t do anything quickly, but runs on like a lion and that might prove a particularly good trait should the ground get testing. The forecast rain certainly suggests that may happen.
Chief Little Rock will look to turn this into a test and Moore might judge it perfectly.
The Native Trail's Dewhurst Stakes (2.00) comes up next and City Of Troy will be difficult to beat if he can reproduce the form he showed when landing the Superlative Stakes last time.
However, he was pulled out of an intended engagement in the National Stakes at the Curragh recently due to unsuitably soft ground and it’s questionable whether he wants it this testing.
It’s worth backing his stablemate Henry Adams instead.
He won a Group 3 on soft ground at Leopardstown in July and probably found conditions too quick for him when fourth behind Rosallion in a Group 1 at Longchamp last time.
The return to a slow surface is in his favour.
He needs to improve but could easily run into a place and, if City Of Troy either doesn’t run or flops on the ground, it wouldn’t be the greatest surprise were Henry Adams to go and win.
The Club Godolphin Cesarewitch Handicap (2.40) is the big betting race of the day and The Very Man might have been underestimated in the market for Irish trainer Jessica Harrington.
The Very Man ran his best recent race on heavy ground when second in a 2m1f handicap at Galway in July and went on to land the Shergar Cup Stayers at Ascot on his next outing.
That proved the fire still burns at the age of nine and he is better than he showed when well held in the Irish version of this race at the Curragh last time. It’s worth forgiving that effort.
He will need another career best, but conditions have come right for him and he stays all day. That might prove the ideal combination for him to find what he needs on this test over 2m2f.
The Ghaiyyath Zetland Stakes (3.15) looks like a shootout between Arabian Crown and Gasper De Lemos and the value might lie with the Ballydoyle runner.
The son of Justify was fourth behind Chief Little Rock on his debut at Leopardstown and built on that with an easy victory over 7f at the Curragh last time when strong at the finish.
He was off the bridle for most of that race, but kept on going gamely and there is little doubt that he will improve for a stiffer test of stamina. He gets that here over three furlongs further.
Ryan Moore will probably make plenty of use of him and the more of a test this becomes on rain-softened ground, the better it will suit Gasper De Lemos. He looks like an ideal horse for it.