Grand National Trends: Key factors to pick a winner in 2025

Do you go by the name? The jockey? The colours? Do you close your eyes and stick a pin in the paper? Or do you go for a more mathematical approach?

There are plenty of ways to go about picking your horse for the Grand National, but is there a way to identify a winner?

Of course, there’s no magic formula to predict who will win the world’s most famous race; there are 34 horses racing over 30 fences for four miles and two-and-a-half furlongs and as such, anything can happen - horses as big as 100/1 have entered the winners' enclosure in the not-too-distant past - but are there things you can look out for to give you the best possible chance?

We’ve looked back over past Grand Nationals to try and spot the trends of each winner.

Aintree Racecourse Guide
Grand National Fence Names and Order

Grand National race information

Grade	Premier Handicap
Course	Aintree
Race type	Handicap steeplechase
Distance	4m 2½f
Ages	7-years-old and above
Fences	30
Runners	34

Previous winners information

Year	Winner	Age	Weight	Price
2024	I Am Maximus	8	11-6	8
2023	Corach Rambler	9	10-5	9
2022	Noble Yeats	7	10-10	7
2021	Minella Times	8	10-3	8
2020	-	-	-	-
2019	Tiger Roll	9	11-5	9
2018	Tiger Roll	8	10-13	8
2017	One For Arthur	8	10-11	8
2016	Rule The World	9	10-7	9
2015	Many Clouds	8	11-9	8
2014	Pineau De Re	11	10-6	11

Positive trends

If you go back 50 years, you'll see more 10- and 11-year-old winners of the Grand National, but as the race has evolved, the trends have shifted. Below, we look at some key trends to watch out for from recent years:

Odds	16/1 or shorter	6 of last 7; 13 of last 21
Age	9-years-old or younger	All of last 9
Weight	11st or less	13 of last 18
Form	Has won a Class 2 (or better) chase over 3m	17 of last 20
Experience	Has raced at Aintree; has never raced in the Grand National	15 of last 21

Below, we look at trends in more detail regarding age, weight, experience, form and plenty more.

Negative trends

While there are certain things to look out for when picking a Grand National winner, there are also plenty of negative factors to watch out for.

While it's true that favourites don't win the Grand National, it's still not a bad betting strategy. Conversely, outsiders very rarely win the Grand National.

There was 100/1 Mon Mome in 2009 and 66/1 Auroras Encore in 2013 with two more winners at 50/1 (1985 and 2022) and 40/1 (1980 and 1995), but big-priced horses rarely win.

While the more seasoned campaigners were typically better placed to win the Grand National in years gone by, the modern races are won by younger horses. No 12-year-old has won the National in the last 20 years, and no horse older than 9-years-old has won since 2014.

In terms of weights, it's extremely tough for a top weight to complete the four-plus miles and pass the winning post first; similarly, it's rare that the lowest weights win due to the calibre of horses carrying them not being good enough. As such, the middle weights tend to fare best.

In-depth trend analysis

Weight trends

The weights carried by each horse play a huge part in the Grand National. In a bid to make the race as equal as possible, the better horses carry more weight, but with more than four miles to cover, some horses can be carrying around 20lbs more than others and that can be the difference on the long run home.

No top weight has won the Grand National since Red Rum in 1974, so I Am Maximus has a big chunk of history to overcome if he’s to land the big one for a second successive year.

Many Clouds came closest to winning with top weight in 2015, when he was one pound shy of the 11st 10lbs maximum. Indeed, only five horses in the last 50 Grand Nationals have carried more than 11st 5lbs to victory and two of them were Red Rum.

No horse carrying less than 10st has won the National since 1914; indeed, horses given less than 10st don’t often make it to the race, with only the top 34 horses selected to participate, and the lightest horse this year will likely be around 10st7lbs.

10st 9lbs is the median weight carried by winners, with 25 horses carrying more and 22 carrying less, but the 10st 5lbs to 10st 7lbs is the range to keep an eye on, with 12 of the last 50 winners and five of the last 21 carrying one of those three weights.

There have also been 12 winners of the last 50 carrying between 10st 11lbs and 11st, with all four weights producing three winners each, and if that's expanded slightly to the 10st 10lbs to 11st range, you get six of the last 21 winners.

Age trends

The average age of a Grand National winner is 9.74 since 1973, though the average has been steadily dropping in recent years, with each of the last nine winners aged nine or younger, with Noble Yeats the first seven-year-old to win since 1940.

bet365's Horse Racing and Trading expert Pat Cooney said: "In the last 10 years, the average age of a Grand National winner has been 9.3; in the 10 years prior, the average age was 10.1.

"One of the reasons the average age has been trending downwards could be that the race isn’t the gruelling test it was, with fences lowered and fewer runners competing, meaning younger horses aren’t at the disadvantage they once were."

Nine is the most popular age of the last 50 winners, though more than half have been 10 or older. Amberleigh House in 2004 is the only 12-year-old winner in the last 26 years.

Eleven-year-olds won the Grand National in 2012, 2013 and 2014, but there was only one in the 15 years previous and have been none since.

Irish trends

We're all too used to seeing the Irish raiders come over and dominate the Cheltenham Festival by now, and they're doing the same at the Grand National.

In the last 20 years, the split between British and Irish winners is exactly 10 apiece, though Lucinda Russell is the only British trainer to win since 2015, with the Irish dominating recent races, winning five of the last six via Gordon Elliott (Tiger Roll), Henry de Bromhead (Minella Times), Emmet Mullins (Noble Yeats) and I Am Maximus (Willie Mullins).

Fence experience trends

Even though the fences have been lowered, there are still 30 obstacles to get over for any horse looking to win the Grand National and as such, some form over fences is vital.

Of the last 10 Grand National winners, all bar one (Rule The World) had won a race over fences that season, and all bar Rule The World and Noble Yeats had won a race over fences in the season before their Grand National win.

Favourites and betting trends

How often do the favourites win the Grand National? While it doesn’t feel like a regular occurrence – and perhaps it shouldn’t be when lining up against 39 other runners (or 33 as of 2024) – 10 of the last 50 winners have been favourites, with 7/1 the most common price amongst favourite winners. This means that if you’d had £10 on every favourite to win the last 50 Grand Nationals, you’d be £83 up.

If you line up all the winners’ prices from smallest to largest, 14/1 is the middle price as well as the joint-most common price with six winners. There have also been six winners at 10/1, six winners at 7/1 and four winners at 16/1.

18 of the last 50 winners have been 10/1 or shorter and 38 of the 50 have been 25/1 or shorter.

Last run trends

Although there are several routes to the Grand National, most involve a race the month before the Aintree showpiece.

Of the last 10 winners, only two had been rested for 50 days or more. It's also worth noting that while they didn't all win on their prior outing, only three winners failed to finish in the top three, with two being trend-buckers Noble Yeats and Rule The World.

Six of the last 10 winners had turned out at the Cheltenham Festival the month before, with half winning.

Horse	Last run before Grand National	Race	Type	Result
I Am Maximus	49 days	Bobbyjo Chase	Grade 3 Chase	1st
Corach Rambler	32 days	Ultima Handicap Chase	Class 1 Handicap Chase	1st
Noble Yeats	25 days	Ultima Handicap Chase	Class 1 Handicap Chase	9th
Minella Times	62 days	Leopardstown Handicap Chase	Grade B Handicap Chase	2nd
Tiger Roll	24 days	Cross Country Chase	Class 2 Chase	1st
Tiger Roll	31 days	Cross Country Chase	Class 2 Chase	1st
One For Arthur	84 days	Warwick Classic	Class 1 Handicap Chase	1st
Rule The World	33 days	Naas Directors Plate	Grade 3 Chase	4th
Many Clouds	28 days	Cheltenham Gold Cup	Grade 1 Chase	6th
Pineau De Re	22 days	Pertemps Network Final	Class 1 Handicap Listed Hurdle	3rd

Previous course form

Certain horses suit certain courses – hence the phrase – and while distance form is clearly important, course form carries some weight too, with 15 of the last 21 winners all competing around Aintree prior to their National win.

However, while a previous appearance at Aintree is useful, a previous appearance in the Grand National is less so. Only two of the last 16 winners had appeared in a previous Grand National and one of those was Tiger Roll the year he won it for a second time, and the one before was 100/1 shot Mon Mome.

The thinking perhaps being that if you have a horse who's good enough to compete at a Grand National for a second time, the handicapper is unlikely to view your horse too leniently. Even 2009 winner Mon Mome, who finished 58 lengths behind Comply Or Die in the 2008 National, was given an extra three pounds for the following year's assignment.

Previous distance form

Covering 4 miles 2½ furlongs, it's essential that you've picked a horse that can stay the course. Entry requirements to the race itself exclude any horse that hasn't placed in a recognised chase of 2 miles 7½ furlongs or more, and indeed seven of the last 10 winners had all won over at least 3 miles.

Rule The World, which bucks several trends, hadn't won over 3 miles but had come second in a Grade 1 at Leopardstown the previous December, while Noble Yeats had come second in a Grade 2 at Wetherby. Minella Times is the only other of the last 10 winners not to have landed over 3 miles, but had won over 2 miles 6 furlongs and was second over 3 miles.