PGA TOUR: Mike Glasscott's BMW Championship preview

Returning to the North Course at Olympia Fields for just the second time in FedExCup Playoffs history (2020), the top 30 players at the conclusion of play this week will advance to The TOUR Championship at East Lake GC in Atlanta.

Playing to Par-70 and 7,366 yards, the historic course set in the Chicago suburbs matches the scorecard from 2020. The challenges this week include tree-lined doglegs, water penalty areas on half of the holes, and the return to slick Bent/Poa putting surfaces.

Hosting the 2003 U.S. Open and 2020 BMW Championship, Olympia Fields is more mystery than known quantity on TOUR. Of the 70 players who teed it up in 2020, 24 will return this week from the field of 50.

Top of the Board

Rory McIlroy (7/1) circled the second-most birdies here in 2020 but also squared 18 bogeys (T12). After posting eight consecutive top-10 paydays, including a come-from-behind victory at the Scottish Open, he is still looking for his first victory on U.S. soil in 2023. The only surprise this week would be if he’s not in contention Sunday afternoon. 

Scottie Scheffler (7/1) surely cannot post three consecutive starts outside the top 20, right? His two worst paydays (T31, T23) have occurred in his previous two starts on TOUR. Everybody knows the club that is holding him back. The Texan closed with 66 here in 2020 during his rookie season.

Jon Rahm (10/1) is the only player in the field who has a victory to his name on this course. Posting 4-under 276 after 66-64 on the weekend, the Spaniard forced and won a playoff to secure his first FedExCup Playoffs victory. The uneven waves of momentum (T37-T2-MC-T10) over his last four starts have confounded investors. The big money is on the line next week.

Patrick Cantlay (10/1) enters the week as the two-time reigning champion, albeit on two very different layouts in Maryland and Delaware. Sharing the 36-hole lead with McIlroy in 2020, the Californian has annually been in the mix at this point in the season over the last three years. Defeated last week in a playoff in Memphis after closing with 64, I’m not worried about his current form.

Viktor Hovland (16/1) won at the Memorial Tournament earlier this year, one of the toughest tests of 2023. Posting 7-under, he defeated Denny McCarthy in a playoff to pick up his first win in the U.S.A. The tight fairways, firm and fast Bentgrass, and deep Kentucky Bluegrass rough should remind him of his happiest days of this season. 

Angles at Olympia Fields

The summer of Lucas Glover heads to Chicago. After winning the final event of the regular season, the veteran picked up 2,000 more FedExCup points winning last week at TPC Southwind to jump to No. 4 in the FedExCup standings. 

2020 rewind:

• The course played as the fourth-most difficult track during the 2020 season (71.815).
• Through three rounds there were only 30 rounds (from 70 players) in the 60s before an additional 33 were signed for on Sunday.
• The first two rounds produced exactly 11 rounds in the 60s.
• There were eight bogey-free rounds for the week. Half of them were posted on Sunday.
• Became the only event this century (non-major) to feature two or less players under par after 54 holes.
• Matt Fitzpatrick was the only competitor squaring fewer than 10 bogeys (nine) for the week.

FedExCup Playoffs Event 2 Bubble:

25. Corey Conners
26. Tyrrell Hatton
27. Jordan Spieth
28. Sungjae Im
29. Chris Kirk
30. Sam Burns
31. Sahith Theegala
32. Justin Rose
33. Kurt Kitayama
34. Denny McCarthy
35. Seamus Power

The winner takes home $3.6 million of the $20 million purse, plus 2,000 FedExCup points.

Others to Consider:

Collin Morikawa (20/1): Anybody who ranks in the top four in Fairways AND GIR will factor this week. If he’s going to have a great week with the putter, it will be on Bent/Poa.

Max Homa (22/1): Watching him graduate to a tough-track specialist has been fantastic. Wins at Riviera, Quail Hollow and Torrey Pines suggest this task is not too tall for him.

Corey Conners (40/1): The experience of winning twice at the challenging AT&T Oaks Course in San Antonio should translate this week. Fantastic metrics tee-to-green have my full attention.

Stats Matter

SG: Total

Olympia Fields requires the total package this week. The 2020 edition, the first time the North Course was in play for the PGA TOUR since the 2003 U.S. Open (won by Jim Furyk), provided the fourth most difficult test of the 2020 season, including the major championships. Only five players broke par for the week, and the scoring average was almost two shots over par. I will remind you that it was the top 70 players on TOUR playing that week, not sectional qualifiers, amateurs, or the rank-and-file. If the wind howls again, and the set-up is similar to 2020, this will feel like a major championship between the ropes.

SG: Tee to Green

The classic design only provides 20 acres of fairway targets off the tee. The top 70 players didn’t hit half of their fairways, just 48.11 percent, the worst on TOUR in 2020. Shaping the golf ball, cutting corners, and avoiding four inches plus of Kentucky Bluegrass will leave irons into firm, 6,000 square foot greens with sloping, slick Bent/Poa surfaces to navigate. Water penalty areas are in play on half of the holes while 85 bunkers linger, strategically positioned to catch imprecise tee balls and approaches. Par is a fantastic target this week.

SG: Putting

Players who miss fairways and greens, both rank in the top five of most difficult from 2020, will have to be steady with the putter to cap the damage. The rankings from 2020 remind all of us that putting will matter this week. Only the greens at Waialae were more difficult from that truncated season. No course surrendered worse Birdie-or-Better-Percentage numbers. Saving shots on the short grass will be part of the winning formula again this season.

Sleepers

Cam Davis (55/1): I can’t ignore the heat and the results. He’s been in this column the last two weeks and has paid off handsomely. Crashing and burning is an option this week, I know, but I’m going to ride until I’m bucked off. 

Sahith Theegala (80/1): Looking to book his second consecutive trip to East Lake, he’ll gladly take his chances on a tough, ball-striking layout.

Patrick Rodgers (150/1): His best paydays have been on big, burly tracks such as Quail Hollow, Torrey Pines, and Muirfield Village GC. 

Mike Glasscott

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