General Election 2024: What seats are the Liberal Democrats targeting?

The Liberal Democrats will be one of the key parties to watch out for on election night, and we've listed some of their biggest target seats for the 2024 general election.

• More Politics news

The Lib Dems typically held a few dozen seats either side of the millennium, before being wiped out after the 2010-2015 coalition with the Conservatives.

Elected on a pledge not to increase tuition fees, Nick Clegg's party reneged on that promise, approximately tripling fees, and the party is yet to recover. After winning 57 seats in 2010, the Lib Dems have won eight, 12 and 11 in the three general elections since, with then-leader Jo Swinson being unseated in 2019.

However the party has enjoyed a resurgence under Ed Davey, who's certainly led the most eye-catching campaign, that's featured bungee jumping, falling into a lake and tackling a water slide in a series of stunts that would look more at home on Total Wipeout than BBC News.

How much the stunts have affected the campaign is tough to measure, but the Liberal Democrats are in their best position for more than a decade and can expect to return a more familiar result of 50+ seats they were winning in the early 2000s.

Only defending eight seats, the Lib Dems will expect to win all of those, and there are small majorities in Carshalton and Wallington, Fife North East and Wimbledon that they'll expect to overturn, but a sign of a really good election night will be returning 60+ seats that will include overturning significant Conservative majorities.

Below we look at some of the key seats the Liberal Democrats will be targeting.

Liberal Democrats target seats

The polling suggests that a bad night for the Liberal Democrats would be fewer than 50 seats, which is still a significant leap from their recent general election efforts, while a good night would see them exceed 60.

While the Lib Dems will expect to win most seats that they lost by fewer than 10,000 votes in 2019, there are also larger majorities that are well within their grasp.

The Liberal Democrats lost by more than 10,000 votes in constituencies including North Devon, Chippenham, and Thornbury and Yate, but will expect to win all of those. They're also well placed to win Michael Gove's old seat of Surrey Heath, where they need to overturn a deficit of 18,349.

Tiverton and Minehead is up for grabs after its creation for the 2024 election. Created from Bridgwater and West Somerset (which had a 24,439 majority over Labour in 2019, and 28,022 over the Lib Dems) and Tiverton and Honiton (where the Lib Dems won the 2022 by-election with the largest vote majority to be overturned in a by-election, and the sixth highest swing against the government since 1945), the party are 4/9 to win.

Other new seats to watch include Melksham and Devizes, created out of the safe Conservative seat of Chippenham and the very safe seat of Devizes, as well as Farnham and Bordon, created out of two more Conservative-voting areas, including Jeremy Hunt's former seat of South West Surrey.

So which seats would represent a good night? The existing seats and some of the smaller majorities they need to overturn are mostly a given, but Chelmsford has voted Conservative in every election since 1950 up to its abolition in 1997, and had a majority of 17,621 over the Lib Dems in 2019, yet could be another Conservative loss.

Stratford-on-Avon, which was represented by Nadim Zahawi prior to his standing down, has only ever elected Conservatives since its re-creation in 1950, but could go the way of the Liberal Democrats if they overturn a majority of nearly 20,000.

Even Maidenhead, the seat of the departing MP and former Prime Minister Theresa May, with its 18,845 majority could be another Tory loss; as could Witney, the seat of another former Prime Minister in David Cameron.

And what represents a really good night for the Liberal Democrats? Well, in addition to the above, Beaconsfield - an extremely safe Conservative seat in recent years - would be right up there with the biggest Lib Dem wins of the night, while Horsham, which has voted Conservative from 1945 to 1974 when abolished, then from 1983 to present, would mean a majority of 21,127 has been overturned.

Another 20,000+ majority within reach is Tewkesbury, which was still a huge Conservative seat in 1997, but could yet fall the way of the Liberal Democrats.

Below is a list of some of the biggest majorities the Lib Dems will be seeking to overturn:

Liam Williams

• • 
  •