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General Election 2024: Seats to watch out for on election night

Unless all of the polling is wildly wrong, Labour will form the next government after the general election on 4th July, with the only question being how big their majority will be.

While there are still significant differences in the polling, with the Conservatives forecast for anything between 50 and 150 seats, the odds suggest they will likely be reduced to 50-99 seats (Evs), with some of the safest seats in the country set to change hands.

What were marginal seats are set to vote overwhelmingly in favour of Labour or the Liberal Democrats.

Below, we look at the key constituencies as well as what are set to be some of the most closely fought seats on election night.

Aberdeenshire North
and Moray East (4:45am)

Ashfield (4:30am)

Basildon and Billericay (12:15am)

Beverley and Holderness (4am)

Birmingham Ladywood (4am)

Boston and Skegness (4am)

Bristol Central (3:15am)

Chichester (3:30am)

Chingford and Woodford
Green (3am)

Clacton (4am)

Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch (3:30am)

Ely and East Cambridgeshire (5am)

Fareham and Waterlooville (3am)

Frome and East Somerset (3:30am)

Islington North (3am)

Norfolk South West (5:30am)

North Herefordshire (5am)

Portsmouth North (3:30am)

Richmond and Northallerton (4am)

Rochdale (2:30am)

South East Cornwall (5am)

Waveney Valley (4am)

Expected declaration times in brackets

Politics

Aberdeenshire North and Moray East

The former leader of the Scottish Conservatives, Douglas Ross notably called for then-Prime Minister Boris Johnson to resign over the Downing Street party scandal, later confirming he wouldn’t seek re-election before U-turning on 6th June 2024, but confirming he would resign as leader of the Scottish Conservatives after the general election.

The Conservatives are slight favourites to win the seat at 4/5, with the SNP 5/4.

Aberdeenshire North and Moray East is expected to declare around 4:45am.

Ashfield

Incumbent: Lee Anderson (Reform UK)

The controversial Lee Anderson will stand as an MP for Reform UK for the first time after defecting from the Conservatives (having previously been a Labour councillor). Given the nickname ‘30p Lee’ by his critics after saying there wasn’t a ‘massive’ need for food banks in the UK and declaring that meals could be cooked for about 30p a day.

Anderson currently stands as Reform’s only MP, and looked set to lose his seat to Labour, but the announcement from Nigel Farage that he would stand as an MP in Clacton has increased support for the party, with Labour now only marginal favourites at 20/21 and Reform 6/5.

Ashfield is expected to declare around 4:30am.

Basildon and Billericay

One of the most fascinating results of election night will be in Basildon and Billericay, where Conservative Party chairman Richard Holden is standing.

The move to stand Holden in a traditionally safe seat came under fire with the former MP for the now-dissolved constituency of North West Durham expected to lose in the north east, an area to which he’d previously described himself as ‘bloody loyal’. The seat was won by the Conservatives with a 46.3% majority but looks too close to call as things stand, with the Conservatives drifting from 10/11 to 9/2, Labour cut from 11/8 to 4/9. and Reform entering the race at 3/1.

Basildon and Billericay is expected to declare around 12:15am.

Beverley and Holderness

Incumbent: Graham Stuart (Conservatives)

In a constituency that voted to leave the European Union and has voted Conservative ever since its creation in 1997, Beverley and Holderness would be a big seat for Labour to win, and they’ve been cut from 4/6 to 4/9 with the Conservatives out from 11/10 to 13/8.

Beverley and Holderness is expected to declare around 4am.

Birmingham Ladywood

Incumbent: Shabana Mahmood (Labour)

While there are a number of prominent independents looking to challenge the main parties, including Jeremy Corbyn, one of the independents with the best chance of winning - and costing Labour a traditionally safe seat - is Akhmed Yakoob in Birmingham Ladywood.

Birmingham Ladywood has voted Labour in every election since 1960, taking 82.7% of the vote in 2017, but with a large Asian and Muslim population, constituents may lend their support for Yakoob, who came third in the West Midlands mayoral election, and is standing on a pro-Palestine policy, looking to capitalise on Labour's mixed messaging with regards to the region.

Labour are 2/7 to win, with Yakoob 5/2.

Birmingham Ladywood is expected to declare around 4am.

Boston and Skegness

Incumbent: Matt Warman (Conservatives)

On what is going to be a hugely successful night for Labour, Boston and Skegness represents one seat where they’re unlikely to be too involved.

Boston and Skegness was the biggest Leave-voting constituency in the country with its Labour support dwindling over the years to be won with a 61.4% majority by the Conservatives in 2019. But with Nigel Farage’s Reform UK rising in the polls, Boston and Skegness looks like one of their biggest targets, priced at Evs to win, alongside the Evs Conservatives.

Boston and Skegness is expected to declare around 4am.

Bristol Central

Incumbent: Thangam Debbonaire

On what will be a historic night for the Labour Party, they may well find themselves losing an MP in Thangam Debonnaire in the new constituency of Bristol Central to Green Party leader Carla Denyer.

Replacing Bristol West, to which Debbonaire was first elected in 2015, the Greens are 4/11 for a second Member of Parliament (assuming they win Brighton Pavilion), with Labour 2/1.

Bristol Central is expected to declare around 3:15am.

Chichester

Incumbent: Gillian Keegan

A sign of the decay within the Conservative Party is the loss of seats they’ve held for decades, but in Chichester they could lose a seat that has been Conservative every year dating back to 1868 with the exception of one year – 1923.

Keegan is Education Secretary, but may be one of a number of cabinet ministers to be unseated, with the Liberal Democrats 8/11, Conservatives 6/5 and Labour out from 3/1 to 10/1.

Chichester is expected to declare around 3:30am.

Chingford and Woodford Green

Incumbent: Iain Duncan Smith (Conservatives)

One of the most contentious seats that Labour look set to win is in Chingford and Woodford Green. While the unseating of former Conservative leader Iain Duncan Smith would typically be cause for huge celebration amongst Labour voters, many in the party were unhappy ay prospective candidate Faiza Shaheen (cut from 7/1 to 9/2) being stood down for what was deemed to be a tenuous reason related to social media activity, with Labour 4/9 and the Conservatives 3/1.

Chingford and Woodford Green is expected to declare around 3am.

Clacton

At the eighth time of asking, will Nigel Farage finally become a Member of Parliament? Clacton was previously represented by Douglas Carswell who defected from the Tories to UKIP, winning as a UKIP MP. Farage initially said he wouldn’t seek election but u-turned before the deadline and looks set to be elected for Reform UK at 1/7 with the Conservatives 11/2.

Clacton is expected to declare around 4am.

Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch

Established in 2005, Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch voted Labour until 2015, when the party was virtually wiped out in Scotland by the SNP.

The SNP retained the seat in 2019 with a 28.3% majority, but another sign of the Labour revival may be seen north of the border on election night, with Labour 4/5 to win over the 10/11 SNP.

Cumbernauld and Kirkintillock is expected to declare around 3:30am.

Ely and East Cambridgeshire

Incumbent: Lucy Frazer (Conservatives)

Created in 2024, Ely and East Cambridgeshire doesn’t technically have an incumbent MP, but MP for South East Cambridgeshire Lucy Frazer will stand for re-election in the new constituency.

The Culture Secretary is facing potential defeat, however, with the Liberal Democrats favourites at 1/2 ahead of the 6/4 Conservatives.

Ely and East Cambridgeshire is expected to declare around 5am.

Fareham and Waterlooville

Incumbent: Suella Braverman (Conservatives)

Another new constituency that doesn’t technically have an MP, Suella Braverman has been selected to stand in Fareham and Waterlooville, and while some Conservatives’ seats are so safe that even the potential wipeout will see them remain MPs, Braverman isn’t home and dry yet, with the Conservatives 2/5 and Labour 9/4.

Fareham and Waterlooville is expected to declare around 3am.

Frome and East Somerset

The newly created Frome and East Somerset is one of the few seats in England where the three main parties all have a chance of election, though a Liberal Democrat victory has become much more likely in recent days.

Frome and East Somerset was created from Jacob Rees Mogg’s constituency of North East Somerset, though Rees Mogg will stand in North East Somerset and Hanham.

The Lib Dems are in from 8/11 to 2/7, Conservatives out from 11/4 to 5/1 and out from Labour 11/4 to 5/1.

Frome and East Somerset is expected to declare around 3:30am.

Islington North

Incumbent: Jeremy Corbyn (Independent)

More eyes will be on Islington North on election night than the vast majority of seats as former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn looks to defend his seat as an independent.

While Islington North has always been a massive Labour-voting area, the 2024 general election poses a significant question of the constituency: does it support Corbyn or Labour? It would also represent a blow for Keir Starmer on what will be an overwhelmingly positive night if the man many in the party feel was betrayed by the current leadership beat Labour in the general election while standing as an independent.

Corbyn is now odds-against at 5/4, drifting from 4/9, with Labour in from 13/8 to 4/7.

Islington North is expected to declare around 3am.

Norfolk South West

Incumbent: Liz Truss (Conservatives)

A good night for the Conservatives on 4th July would likely be anything over 100 seats. A bad night would likely involve former Prime Minister Liz Truss losing her seat in South West Norfolk, which has voted Conservative in every election since 1964.

The Conservatives have drifted from 8/13 to 6/5 to win with Labour new favourites at 4/6, and it’s not impossible the former PM is voted out.

Norfolk South West is expected to declare around 5:30am.

North Herefordshire

Incumbent: Bill Wiggin (Conservatives)

A relatively new constituency, North Herefordshire has voted Conservative in each election since 2010, winning with a majority of 24,158 in 2019. By contrast, the Green Party won just 4,769, but it's one of the party's primary targets in 2024.

The Greens are targeting four seats, with North Herefordshire the least likely to win, priced at 6/4 to win against the 1/2 Conservatives, but if they do, it'll be the party's biggest win of the night.

North Herefordshire is expected to declare around 5am.

Portsmouth North

Incumbent: Penny Mordaunt (Conservatives)

Second favourite to be the next Conservative leader, Penny Mordaunt faces being voted out of parliament at the upcoming general election. Mordaunt has represented the constituency since 2010 and was re-elected with a 34.4% majority, and while the betting for Portsmouth North was close when the election was announced, Rishi Sunak’s decision to leave the D-Day commemorations has certainly harmed the party’s chances in Portsmouth North with its considerable Royal Navy presence.

Labour are now 2/5 to win with the Conservatives 7/4.

Portsmouth North is expected to declare around 3:30am.

Richmond and Northallerton

Incumbent: Rishi Sunak (Conservatives)

There will be plenty of measuring against and comparisons with past elections when contextualising the upcoming general election result, but it’s not impossible that, for the first time in history, the Prime Minister loses his seat.

Arthur Balfour resigned as Prime Minister shortly before the 1906 general election, where he did lose his seat, but there’s a chance Rishi Sunak is voted out.

The newly created constituency of Richmond and Northallerton will see Sunak seek re-election, but he’s drifted out to 4/11 to win, with Labour now as short as 2/1.

Richmond and Northallerton is expected to declare around 4am.

Rochdale

Incumbent: George Galloway (Workers Party of Britain)

After the contentious by-election of 2024, the voters of Rochdale go back to the polls, with the Workers Party of Britain, represented by George Galloway, 9/4 to win, with Labour 4/9 to reclaim the seat they lost in February.

Rochdale is expected to declare around 2:30am.

South East Cornwall

Incumbent: Sheryll Murray (Conservatives)

Like much of the south west, South East Cornwall has typically voted Conservative with the occasional swing to the Liberal Democrats. South East Cornwall voted Conservative from 1983 to 1997 when it swung to the Lib Dems, before swinging back to the Conservatives in 2010.

Despite a growth in popularity under Jeremy Corbyn, Labour has never had much presence in the constituency, but is favourite to overturn a majority of more than 20,000 at 4/6, ahead of the 11/10 Conservatives, in what would represent a significant win for Labour.

South East Cornwall is expected to declare around 5am.

Waveney Valley

Located on the border of Norfolk and Suffolk, Waveney Valley is a new seat, comprised of several previously ultra-safe Conservative seats.

A total of five constituencies will contribute towards the new seat, and all five had considerable Conservative majorities in 2019, yet a number of voters are set to switch to the Green Party, while Reform may take enough away from the Conservatives.

Remarkably, the Greens are odds-on to win at 4/6 with the Conservatives 13/8, in what could be one of the biggest swings of the night.

Waveney Valley is expected to declare around 4am.

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