Iga Swiatek is bidding to defend her French Open title and victory over Karolina Muchova in Saturday's final would see her crowned champion in Paris for the third time in four years.

Aaron Ashley's women's French Open final tips

Iga Swiatek to win & over 18.5 games @ 11/10
Over 8.5 games in first set @ 4/6
Under 3.5 match aces @ 10/11

Odds displayed were correct at the time of writing and subject to fluctuation.

Setting the scene…..

World number one Swiatek is threatening to dominate the French Open much as Rafael Nadal has done in the men's event and the Polish phenomenon is a strong favourite at 2/15 to clinch a third clay-court major at Muchova's expense.

Unseeded and ranked merely 54th, Swiatek was a relatively unknown proposition when winning her maiden French Open title as a teenager in 2020.

However, Swiatek justified her status as top seed when regaining her crown last year and will be hoping to successfully defend her title against Muchova, who is 6/1 to spring a surprise.

It has been easy work for Swiatek on her run to the final, with the Warsaw women yet to drop a set.

However, the 22-year-old may face a stiffer test against her Czech opponent, who should be full of confidence after upsetting world number two Aryna Sabalenka in the semi-finals.

Iga Swiatek to win & over 18.5 games @ 11/10

If a fully wound-up Swiatek arrives on Philippe-Chatrier, just as she did in her final triumphs in 2020 and 2022, then it is hard to see how the 'Queen of Paris' can be dethroned in the French capital.

The Polish star eased to straight-sets victories in each of those title deciders, dropping a total of only nine games against Sofia Kenin and Coco Gauff, while she has yet to drop a set on her run to this year's showpiece.

However, Swiatek was pushed hard by Beatriz Haddad Maia in her semi-final and, although eventually winning 6-2 7-6, the Brazilian did have a chance to level matters when a break up and then when having a set point in the tiebreak.

And there is no reason to think Muchova will blink in what is her first Grand Slam final, especially given the way in which she closed out her semi-final encounter with second seed Sabalenka.

Muchova did extremely well to nullify the power of the heavy-hitting Belarusian to win 7-6 6-7 7-5, meaning the resurgent Czech 26-year-old has lost only four of her last 25 completed matches.

That shows she is playing with plenty of confidence and although Swiatek evidently holds most of the aces, expect the one-time world number 19 to come out swinging.

Aaron Ashley's Tip

Swiatek is heavy odds-on to secure a third French Open title in the last four years and, while the potent Pole should justify her status as world number one, Muchova can make her work for her rewards.

The top seed needed 21 games before recording her semi-final victory against Haddad Maia and there is no reason to think Muchova will be rolled over.

That makes odds of 11/10 about Swiatek winning in a final featuring at least 19 games the value play. A 6-4 6-3 win for the Pole would be deemed a winner.

Over 8.5 games in first set @ 4/6

If Muchova is going to keep this final respectable, she needs to make a fast start just as she has done in every round so far.

The Czech player has won the opening set in all six of her French Open assignments, which includes a tiebreak victory in the first set of her semi-final showdown with Sabalenka.

The 26-year-old has great composure and is unlikely to falter under pressure, suggesting she can ensure the opening set with Swiatek goes over 8.5 games.

Despite her dominance in Paris, three of Swiatek's five wins have seen her take the opening set 6-4, seeing her serve broken at least once by each of Cristina Bucsa, Claire Liu and Coco Gauff.

Aaron Ashley's Tip

Swiatek hasn't come out fully firing in all of her matches in Paris and in three of her five completed matches she has claimed the opening set 6-4.

Muchova, fresh from her dramatic semi-final success over Sabalenka, looks primed to put up a fight and is unlikely to be embarrassed. The Czech knows a strong start is imperative and can ensure the opening set goes over 8.5 games at 4/6.

Under 3.5 match aces @ 10/11

There are only a few women in the world who can regularly serve aces and Swiatek and Muchova are not renowned for utilising their big serves.

In fact, Swiatek has served only seven aces across her five and a half matches and, although Muchova has managed 12 in her seven outings, six of those came in a marathon match with Sabalenka.

It is highly likely that this contest with Swiatek is settled in straight sets, though, and in the only previous competitive meeting between these players, which went to a deciding set, there were just three aces served.

Aaron Ashley's Tip

Under 3.5 match aces at 10/11 with bet365 could be a fair price given neither of these players are huge servers and are both excellent on the return.

Swiatek has served more than one ace in only one of her French Open outings, while Muchova has managed one or fewer in three of her six assignments.

Aaron Ashley's women's French Open final tips

Iga Swiatek to win & over 18.5 games @ 11/10
Over 8.5 games in first set @ 4/6
Under 3.5 match aces @ 10/11

Odds displayed were correct at the time of writing and subject to fluctuation.

Aaron Ashley

• Iga Swiatek
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