Novak Djokovic is 2/9 to win his 23rd Grand Slam singles title with a victory over 7/2 Casper Ruud in the French Open final, although it could pay for backers to expect a slightly closer rumble on the Paris clay than the odds suggest.

Adrian Humphries' French Open final tips

Novak Djokovic to win & over 35.5 games @ 13/10 
Over 0.5 tiebreak in match @ 4/5 

Odds displayed were correct at the time of writing and subject to fluctuation.

Setting the scene…..

Novak Djokovic, victorious in the Australian Open in January, has an immediate chance to move one ahead of his great rival Rafael Nadal in terms of Grand Slam singles title triumphs when he takes on Casper Ruud in the final of the French Open in Paris. 

Djokovic and Nadal are tied in the lead on 22 major singles wins - Roger Federer retired on 20. 

But with Nadal having announced his intention to retire in the not-too-distant future, this is a huge opportunity for Djokovic, who looks to have years left in his career, to kick on from the front. 

The super Serb should make it 23 wins, although it may pay punters not to totally underestimate Ruud’s chances of at least making their fifth meting - which should be their longest yet - reasonably competitive. 

Ruud was thrashed in 6-3 6-3 6-0 in last year’s French Open final by Nadal and the Norwegian is likely to enjoy his second Paris clay final - and third Grand Slam singles final - more than he did his first.

Novak Djokovic to win & over 35.5 games @ 13/10

Djokovic told his fans and readers in advance how seriously he would be taking his French Open semi-final clash with Carlos Alcaraz and he didn’t let down his supporters, defeating the world number one and top seed in four sets. 

An injury to Alcaraz early in set three didn’t help his cause but Djokovic totally bossed that last-four clash, deciding the tempo it would be played at and not allowing the Spaniard’s natural game much room for manoeuvre. 

Ruud is less dynamic as a performer than Alcaraz, but he is also more experienced and his all-round game is more consistent than the Spaniard’s. 

With little to separate Djokovic and Ruud in terms of serving - both have similar ace and double-fault records in this year’s French Open - the crucial factor could well be the combatants’ groundstrokes. 

And so far on the Paris clay this season, the favourite has shown more willing to go for the jugular than the outsider. 

That is likely to prove the difference, although unsurprisingly the longer the match goes on Ruud is given more chance to post an upset. 

But Djokovic still looks the bet to get his hands on a third French Open title - a win which would mean he would have won all four Grand Slam tournaments on at least three occasions. 

However, it may pay to go against their previous history - Djokovic has won all four matches the pair have contested in the past - and combine a victory for the favourite with over 35.5 games contested. 

That’s a 13/10 chance - Djokovic and under 35.5 games is the 5/4 market leader - but Ruud is playing well and has a genuine opportunity to pose more problems for the Serb than Alcaraz did, especially if backing up his portfolio with some decent service stats.

Adrian Humphries' tip

Djokovic is likely to prove difficult to beat - he’s 6/4 to win in straight sets - but rather than go with that option, it could pay to back Ruud to prove more troublesome to the Serb than many are expecting. 

Ruud looks too short at 1/2 to win at least a set and so, instead, take a chance on Djokovic winning his third clay championship in a match featuring over 35.5 games. 

The world number three required four sets to defeat Karen Khachanov and Alcaraz in his last two outings and Ruud is a better player than Khachanov.

Over 0.5 tiebreaks in match @ 4/5

It’s 4/5 that the men’s final features at least one tiebreak and 10/11 that it doesn’t and it could be worth going down the first punting path. 

Djokovic has contested at least one tiebreak in four of his six French Open outings this year. 

And while Ruud has played only one breaker, in a close encounter in the fourth round with big-serving Chilean Nicolas Jarry, the fact that Djokovic is likely to boss a large proportion of the final suggests the Norwegian outsider may have to fall in and follow suit to some degree. 

Also in the favour of tiebreak backers is the fact that Djokovic and Ruud, given their age, rank and form, could actually be slightly better matched than many believe. 

Ruud, 24, is approaching his physical prime although may be a couple of years from that, while although Djokovic is still making magic aged 36, he’s almost certainly past his best, especially in one of his weakest Grand Slam tournaments.

Adrian Humphries' tip

Djokovic has won all eight sets he has previously contested with Ruud, but the super Serb won three of those with a score of seven. 

Two of those were 7-5 scorelines, while one went to a tiebreak, and given that their fifth meeting in the French Open final may be slightly closer than most believe, it’s worth taking the 4/5 that the pair play at least one more tiebreak in their Paris title decider.

Adrian Humphries' French Open final tips

Novak Djokovic to win & over 35.5 games @ 13/10
Over 0.5 tiebreak in match @ 4/5

Odds displayed were correct at the time of writing and subject to fluctuation.

Adrian Humphries

• Novak Djokovic
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