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West Ham v Freiburg: Predictions, Tips and Odds

West Ham have their work cut out to make it through to the Europa League quarter-finals after a 1-0 defeat at Freiburg in the first leg of their last-16 tie.

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West Ham v Freiburg betting tips and predictions

West Ham to qualify @ 21/20

West Ham had an off-night in Germany last week but can make amends at the London Stadium by scoring the goals that take them into the last eight of the Europa League.

The reigning Conference League champs piled up the chances at the Mooswaldstadion last Thursday but it was Freiburg who took the one that mattered, converted by Michael Gregoritsch to hand the Bundesliga side a 1-0 advantage at the mid-point of the tie.

David Moyes, who saw Jarrod Bowen and Mohammed Kudus blow half-a-dozen decent opportunities between them, was disappointed that his team did not get a late penalty.

But there was enough in the display to suggest they have Freiburg’s measure, as was the case in the group stage in the autumn when the sides met twice with West Ham winning both games, 2-1 away and 2-0 at home, a score that if replicated would be good enough.

It has been two years since the last time West Ham were faced with a similar predicament when they lost 1-0 at Sevilla in the first leg. They turned that around at home against an opponent a degree better than Freiburg so take the Hammers to qualify at 21/20.

There is no doubt that West Ham’s form is mixed, although they have lost only once at home since the end of October.

They also seem to save their better performances and results for Europe - they have played ten home ties over the last two seasons in the Conference and Europa Leagues and won the lot.

Freiburg are a mid-division Bundesliga outfit, who have lost eight of 13 league games away from home. Only one other club - Union Berlin - have lost more.

Moyes won’t depart from his risk-free approach that so infuriates some West Ham fans, because it’s a tactic that continues to deliver results.

Only Bayer Leverkusen scored more group-stage goals than Freiburg who, in Gregoritsch, Vincenzo Grifo and Roland Sallai, boast an attacking threat. But West Ham weathered any storm pretty well in the away leg and can complete the job back in the capital.

Jarrod Bowen Over 1.5 Shots on Target @ 11/8

One of the mysteries of the campaign is how Jarrod Bowen continues to score goals for fun in the Premier League but can’t buy a goal in the Europa League.

Bowen has 14 in the top division from 30 shots on target - only eight players have troubled the keeper more frequently than the ex-Hull man.

In Freiburg last Thursday Bowen was a constant threat to Christian Streich’s side, firing off four shots, two of which were on target.

Bowen is absolutely West Ham’s go-to source of goals and is fortunate to have class acts like James Ward-Prowse and Lucas Paqueta who have the quality to find him.

Bowen is 11/8 to be on target at least twice at the London Stadium and given the pressure that ultimately West Ham are going to have to exert, that looks a fair bet.

Lucas Paqueta to be booked @ 13/5

Hot-headed Brazilian Lucas Paqueta can win matches with his class and vision - but he’s just as likely to find his way into a referee’s notebook.

And given the temperature at the London Stadium, with the tie on a knife-edge and a place in the quarter-finals on the line, take Paqueta to cross a line and have his name taken by Italian referee Marco Guida.

Paqueta was booked in the first leg and carded again in Sunday’s 2-2 draw with Burnley.

He has six goals this season but that pales next to his nine yellow cards and if it gets tetchy you can be sure he will be at the heart of the controversy.

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West Ham v Freiburg odds

West Ham - 8/11
Draw -
14/5
SC Freiburg -
15/4

View the full market and more odds for West Ham v Freiburg on site.

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