Watford v Luton Town: Prediction, Tips and Odds

Two bitter rivals clash in Sunday’s sole Championship game, with a huge gulf between Watford and victors Luton Town in the standings.

The Hornets ended a poor run of form with a victory at Middlesbrough last weekend, which left them within three points of the play-offs heading into this round of games.

Meanwhile, Luton have fallen to the foot of the table as they face the possibility of back-to-back relegations.

The Hatters dispensed of former Watford boss Rob Edwards - who guided them to the Premier League - but replacement Matt Bloomfield has yet to spark a revival.

Watford v Luton Town betting tips and predictions

Both teams to score - 5/6

Luton haven’t won a league game this side of Christmas, but their underlying numbers under Bloomfield have been strong in places.

Their midweek draw with Plymouth Argle saw them dominate the Expected Goals battle 1.7 to 0.2, while they created 1.4 xG in a 1-0 home defeat to Sheffield United last weekend.

Luton are getting forward - as they rank ninth in the division for touches in the opposition’s third - but only seven sides have allowed opponents more touches in their own final third. That suggests there will be chances here, despite the price available on both teams to score.

The Hatters’ struggled in visits to Sheffield Wednesday and Sunderland earlier this month, where their lack of possession translated into poor chances.

They generated a combined 0.7 xG in those games, averaging just 33.5% possession.

However, on average Watford narrowly edge possession in their games. The Hornets also have just two clean sheets across their last 16 games, so this Luton side should be able to get forward and cause issues.

Their last clean sheet at Vicarage Road came in November, while Luton have conceded in 14 of 16 trips this season. As a result, both teams to score stands out here. 

Watford to win 2-1 - 17/2

Even with Luton putting in solid displays, they still seem to find a way to throw the game away. That been particularly true on their travels, where they’ve lost 13 of their 16 away trips this term.

Luton have lost to nil at five of the top six, but Watford are a rung below the league’s top sides and their poor defensive record at home should point to the Hatters being able to find the net.

The visitors have conceded at least twice on 11 occasions on their travels this season and they meet a Watford side which has shipped 17 goals in 16 at home across the campaign.

Five of those 16 have seen them win 2-1 - accounting for over half of their home victories this term.

With Luton losing by a single goal on six occasions on their travels, back them for a 2-1 defeat on Sunday.

Imran Louza and Isaiah Jones to be booked - 8/1

Given the rivalry between the two sides, we can expect the pair to share a few cards this weekend.

Imran Louza looks like the most likely candidate for the hosts, as he’s been booked on four occasions in 11 home appearances so far.

Luton right-wing-back Isaiah Jones joins him in an 8/1 double, despite making just four starts since arriving from Middlesbrough last month. Jones has completed 90 minutes in each of Luton’s last two.

Jones started in last month’s visit to Oxford and he was booked on that occasion. He is averaging a foul per game early in his Luton career and Sunday pits him against Watford’s Giorgi Chakvetadze.

The winger has been fouled more often than any other Hornets player, drawing 45 so far this season.

With Jones expected to be isolated on that flank, back him for a caution. 

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Watford v Luton Town odds

Watford - 27/20
Draw - 5/2
Luton Town - 15/8

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.