Venezuela v Brazil: Prediction, Tips and Odds

Dorival Junior’s Brazil disappointed at the 2024 Copa America, crashing out in the quarter-finals via a penalty-shootout defeat to Uruguay, and their 2026 World Cup qualifying campaign has had a rocky feel to it too.

The Samba Stars are lacking their usual fluidity and are down in fourth in the CONMEBOL standings, six points behind the leaders, their rivals Argentina. 

Two wins in the last international break will have eased the pressure on Dorival Junior slightly but he will be wary ahead of a potentially tricky trip to Venezuela, who have impressed at home throughout qualifying and, sitting eighth, will be seeking some positive results as they bid to break into the top six of the standings. 

Venezuela v Brazil betting tips and predictions

Venezuela or draw double chance - 13/10

While the last international break yielded two wins for Brazil, those victories came away at 2026 World Cup qualifying’s basement boys Chile and at home to a Peru side that have now failed to score a goal in seven straight competitive away games, suggesting they may have only papered over the cracks rather than turned over a new leaf. 

The Selecao had lost their last three away qualifiers prior to their win in Santiago and there is every chance those travel troubles will creep back in on Thursday, as they take on a Venezuela side that are yet to lose a home match in qualifying. 

The Wine-Red remain the only CONMEBOL side to not feature at a World Cup, but they have made a strong start to getting rid of that unwanted label this time around, taking 11 points and sitting just two points off the intercontinental play-off spot. 

Their home form has been instrumental to keeping their chances alive, as they have taken eight of a possible 15 points on their own patch so far, suggesting they could hold their own against Brazil on Thursday. 

On paper, the Selecao should run away with things in Maturin given their star-studded squad, but Venezuela will have no fear, having held the World and South American champions, Argentina, to a 1-1 draw in their last home match. 

And, while that was a great point, it so easily could have been three. A monumental performance saw the Wine-Red keep Lionel Messi quiet while having more shots (16-8), shots on target (6-4) and corners (8-4) than the world’s top-ranked national side.  

That will give Venezuela great confidence ahead of Thursday’s clash and it could pay to back them to earn at least a point against Brazil, who have lost three of their away qualifiers.

Under 2.5 goals - 4/5

While Thursday’s clash could throw up a shock, it is unlikely to be much of a spectacle in Maturin. 

Brazil’s poor away record in qualifying has coincided with a lack of goals, with the Samba Stars scoring an uncharacteristically low four in five matches on the road. 

Even if they do find their scoring touch in Maturin, they would be unlikely to run away with things given Venezuela have conceded just one goal at home in qualifying. 

Likewise, if our first tip is correct, a Venezuela win would also be low-scoring. The Wine-Red have scored just eight times in their 10 qualifiers and their heavy reliance on former Newcastle man Salomon Rondon can make their attacking patterns easy to read. 

The sides’ earlier meeting in qualifying - in Cuiaba last October - finished with the pair scoring a goal apiece and a similarly low amount of net bulging should be expected on Thursday. 

Jon Aramburu to be booked - 11/5

Real Sociedad earned a shock 1-0 win over Barcelona last weekend and key to their success was the excellent defensive performance from Jon Aramburu to keep Barca’s in-form winger Raphinha quiet. 

The two will be well acclimated now after spending plenty of time duelling on Sunday and they will get a chance to face off again in Maturin, with Aramburu set to line-up on the left of Venezuela's back four and Raphinha on the right of Brazil’s front three. 

While the Real Sociedad defender was mostly excellent against Barcelona, he was still forced into three fouls and also saw his name taken by the referee, something which has been a common occurrence this season. 

Aramburu has been carded four times in his 11 La Liga appearances this term and was also booked in his last international match, the 1-1 draw with Argentina. 

Up against a familiar foe and having committed 30 fouls in 18 matches for club and country this season, the Venezuelan full-back looks a likely candidate for a yellow on Thursday.

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Venezuela v Brazil odds

Venezuela - 19/4
Draw - 31/10
Brazil - 4/7

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.