USA vs Mexico Tips, Predictions and Bet Builder

Mauricio Pochettino has silverware in his sights as manager of the United States as they prepare to face Mexico in what promises to be a close-knit CONCACAF Gold Cup Final in Houston, Texas.

There was some pressure mounting on Pochettino coming into the Gold Cup following some friendly losses but the manager is now on the verge of silverware.

Nine-time winners Mexico have won this title more than anybody else and El Tri could leave the hosts feeling frustrated at NRG Stadium.

USA vs Mexico Tips Summary

Market	Tip	Odds
Match Result	Mexico	8/5
Best Bet	Mexico to win & under 2.5 goals	7/2
Bet Builder	Mexico to lift the trophy, Raul Jimenez to score or assist & under 3.5 shot on target for USA	9/2

Key Match Stats

• The USA have won five of their last six home games against Mexico.

• Mexico have conceded just three shots on target in their last four games.

• Diego Luna scored twice in first 15 minutes of USA's 2-1 semi-final win over Guatemala.

• Mexico have won three of their last four matches to nil.

• The USA have kept only two clean sheets in their last nine internationals.

USA vs Mexico Prediction

Best Bet: Mexico to win & under 2.5 goals @ 7/2

This was always likely to be the last dance in Houston, with the Gold Cup's most successful teams making it through to the final.

El Tri are seeking back-to-back tournament wins for the first time since 2011/2013. The last seven finals have witnessed these nations trading the trophy. On that notion, the USA are in line to regain it, but this looks set up for a low-scoring Mexican success.

USA boss Pochettino has been without European-based stars Christian Pulisic, Timothy Weah, Giovanni Reyna, Weston McKennie, Antonee Robinson, Folarin Balogun and Sergino Dest owing to Club World Cup commitments and injuries and his panel is largely one of inexperience.

Opposite number Javier Aguirre has a much more settled and experienced side with him and they have a knack of winning big games.

Mexico won October's friendly in Guadalajara 2-0 and their defence may shut out the USMNT again in this decider.

Enda McElhinney explains:

Mexico have conceded just eight shots on target over five games so far and a fourth successive clean sheet can help propel them to the winning line in a tense final.

USA vs Mexico Bet Builder Tip

• Mexico to lift the trophy

• Raul Jimenez to score or assist

• Under 3.5 shots on target for USA

  
  Pays 9/2

Mexico's defensive stubbornness has been the foundation of their success so far.

Goalkeeper Luis Malagon faced only three shots on target in the wins over Suriname, Saudi Arabia and Honduras as well as the 0-0 group-stage draw with Costa Rica.

They've won three of their last four games to nil and will be set up to frustrate their hosts.

Raul Jimenez's semi-final winner was his 41st goal for El Tri. The 34-year-old could be the matchwinner in Texas and should be involved in anything productive for his side.

With so many top names missing, the USA may struggle to break down this Mexican side and under 3.5 shots on target for them completes this bet builder.

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Enda McElhinney adds:

The absentee-list from this USA squad is lengthy and while it hasn't stopped them reaching the decider, the creative sparks they are missing will be harshly felt now against a supremely well organised opponent.

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Tactics, Form and Team News

Pochettino fielded an unchanged side in the semi-final, though Walker Zimmerman came on as a late sub for first appearance at the 2025 Gold Cup and could be considered for a starting berth.

Patrick Agyemang leads the line and has the support of his boss given his physicality up top, while Bournemouth's Tyler Adams will reach a half-century of caps for the United States.

Diego Luna and Malik Tillman have really impressed for the USMNT in this tournament and appear locked in as starters.

USA predicted lineup (4-2-3-1): Freese; Freeman, Richards, Ream, Arfsten; De la Torre, Adams; McGlynn, Tillman, Luna; Agyemang.

Boss Aguirre has opted for a 4-3-3 through Mexico's run to the final, with Santiago Gimenez and Raul Jimenez spearheading the attack.

Fulham forward Jimenez's goal in the semi-final was his 41st for El Tri. Netminder Luis Angel Malagon has three clean sheets already while Erik Lira put his name in the mix for a start after impressing off the bench in the dying minutes against Honduras.

Mexico predicted lineup (4-3-3): Malagon; Chavez, Vasquez, Montes, Araujo; Ruiz, Alvarez, Mora; Vega, Jimenez, Alvarado.

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.